Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2023, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (19): 3772-3787.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2023.19.006


Investigation on the Effects of Climate Change on the Growth and Yield of Different Maturity Winter Wheat Varieties in Northern China Based on the APSIM Model

SHI XinRui(), HAN BaiShu, WANG ZiQian, ZHANG YuanLing, LI Ping, ZONG YuZheng, ZHANG DongSheng, GAO ZhiQiang, HAO XingYu()   

  1. College of Agriculture, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu 030801, Shanxi
  • Received:2023-01-16 Accepted:2023-05-11 Online:2023-10-01 Published:2023-10-08
  • Contact: HAO XingYu


【Objective】This study aims to clarify the impacts of climate change on the growth, development and yield of winter wheat of different maturity, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable production of wheat under future climate change. 【Method】The data about growth of two winter wheat varieties of Liangxing 99 (late-maturing) and Zhongke 2011 (early-maturing), soil, and meteorology, which were observed under different temperatures and [CO2] treatments in the open top chamber in 2017-2020, were used to calibrate and validate the APSIM (agricultural production systems simulator) model. Then the verified model was used to simulate winter wheat yield, yield composition and phenology dates under different future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with a baseline period of 1986-2005. And the impacts of climate change and extreme high temperature on the production potential of different maturity winter wheat varieties were analyzed. 【Result】The APSIM model was able to well simulate the phenology, yield and biomass under different air temperature and [CO2] treatments since the simulated and measured values of R2 were higher than 0.614 and the values of nRMSE were all lower than 10.6%. However, the simulation result of leaf area index (LAI) was relatively poor. For the long-term simulation results, under different climate conditions, the days from sowing to jointing were shorter than the baseline for two wheat varieties. The shortened days of early-maturing variety were smaller than those of late-maturing variety. There was no obvious change in the days from jointing to maturity between the two varieties. The yield and potential yield of the two wheat varieties were higher under the future RCP conditions than under the baseline period. The yield and potential yield were the highest under the RCP 8.5 condition in 2100s. The yield and potential yield of early-maturing variety were more remarkably increased than those of late-maturing variety. Compared with the baseline, the LAI values of the two wheat varieties increased in the early growth stage. Then, the LAI of the late-maturing variety decreased obviously in the late growth stage, while the LAI of the early-maturing variety had no obvious difference. The aboveground biomass of the two wheat varieties both increased, and the early-maturing variety increased more remarkably than the late-maturing variety. Under different RCP conditions, extreme high temperature had negative impacts on the yield and 1 000-grain weight of the two varieties of winter wheat. Extreme high temperature at flowering stage had the greatest impact on 1 000-grain weight. Compared with the normal years, the 1 000-grain weight and yield of late-maturing variety decreased obviously in extreme-high-temperature years under the RCP 8.5 condition in 2100s, while the grain number also decreased slightly. Under different RCP conditions, compared with the normal years, extreme high temperature obviously reduced the 1 000-grain weight of early-maturing variety but slightly increased the grain numbers. Thus, yield reduction of early-maturing wheat variety in extreme high temperature years was not obvious. 【Conclusion】Early-maturing variety of winter wheat will be more adaptable to future climate change. Thus, breeding of wheat varieties to adapt to climate change is one of the effective measures to cope with future climate change.

Key words: climate change, extreme high temperature, winter wheat variety, yield, APSIM model

Fig. 1

Dates and depths of irrigations in the winter wheat experiments in 2017-2020"

Table 1

Calibrated genetic parameters of in the APSIM-Wheat model for the winter wheat varieties of Liangxing 99 and Zhongke 2011"

参数Parameters 良星99 Liangxing 99 中科2011 Zhongke 2011
春化敏感性Vernalization sensitivity 3.1 2.5
光周期敏感性Photoperiod sensitivity 3.5 3.5
出苗期到幼苗期积温Accumulated temperature from emergence to seedling stage (℃) 400 300
幼苗期到拔节期积温Accumulated temperature from seedling to jointing stage (℃) 600 500
拔节期到开花期积温Accumulated temperature from jointing to flowering stage (℃) 150 150
开花期到灌浆期积温Accumulated temperature from flowering to filling stage (℃) 650 500
最大比叶面积Maximum specific leaf area (mm2·g-1) 22000-38000 18000-29000

Table 2

Temperature and [CO2] conditions under different RCP scenarios"

基准年份Baseline 2050s 2100s
1986-2005 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
温度Temperature (℃) T T+1.4 T+2 T+1.8 T+3.7
[CO2] (mol·mol-1) 400 487 541 538 936

Table 3

Division of high temperature year type under different RCP conditions"

气候条件Weather conditions 高温年型 High temperature year types 年份Years
CK 极端高温年份Extreme high temperature years 1988, 1993, 2000, 2001, 2002
高温年份High temperature years 1987, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2005
正常年份Normal years 1989, 1990, 1991, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2003, 2004
2050s RCP4.5 极端高温年份Extreme high temperature years 2047, 2052, 2054, 2055, 2060, 2061
高温年份High temperature years 2049, 2050, 2053, 2059, 2065
正常年份Normal years 2048, 2051, 2056, 2057, 2058, 2062, 2063, 2064
RCP8.5 极端高温年份Extreme high temperature years 2050, 2054, 2055, 2060, 2061
高温年份High temperature years 2047, 2049, 2052, 2063, 2065
正常年份Normal years 2048, 2051, 2053, 2056, 2057, 2058, 2059, 2062, 2064
2100s RCP4.5 极端高温年份Extreme high temperature years 2085, 2089, 2090, 2095, 2096, 2100
高温年份High temperature years 2084, 2086, 2087, 2098
正常年份Normal years 2082, 2083, 2088, 2091, 2092, 2093, 2094, 2097, 2099
RCP8.5 极端高温年份Extreme high temperature years 2089, 2090, 2093, 2095, 2100
高温年份High temperature years 2082, 2083, 2086, 2099
正常年份Normal years 2084, 2085, 2087, 2088, 2091, 2092, 2094, 2096, 2097, 2098

Fig. 2

Comparisons between the observed and simulated durations from sowing to maturity (a), yield (b), biomass (c), and LAI (d) of winter wheat in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 in the process of model calibration The solid line represents the regression line, and the dotted line represents the 1:1 line. The same as below"

Fig. 3

Comparisons between observed and simulated durations from sowing to maturity (a), yield (b), biomass (c), and LAI (d) of winter wheat in 2019-2020 in the process of model validation"

Fig. 4

Changes in simulated days from sowing to maturity (a and b), from sowing to jointing (c and d), and from jointing to maturity (e and f) of Liangxing 99 (a, c and e) and Zhongke 2011 (b, d and f) under different RCP conditions"

Fig. 5

Grain yield (a and b) and potential yield (c and d) of Liangxing 99 and Zhongke 2011 under different RCP conditions"

Fig. 6

Changes in LAI (a and c) and biomass (b and d) of Liangxing 99 and Zhongke 2011 under different RCP conditions"

Fig. 7

Simulated yield (a and b), grain numbers (c and d) and 1000-grain weight (e and f) of Liangxing 99 (a, c and e) and Zhongke 2011 (b, d and f) in different temperature years under different RCP conditions"

Table 4

Correlation analysis between grain numbers and 1000-grain weight under different RCP scenarios and extreme high temperature index EDD at different stages"

CK 2050s 2100s
RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Liangxing 99
Growing stage
籽粒数 Grain numbers -0.317 0.063 0.065 0.089 0.012
千粒重 1000-grain weight -0.212 -0.365 -0.318 -0.371 -0.571*
Growing stage
籽粒数 Grain numbers 0.159 0.026 0.092 0.070 -0.082
千粒重 1000-grain weight -0.283 -0.712* -0.821* -0.838* -0.516*
Liangxing 99
灌浆期Filling stage 千粒重
1000-grain weight
-0.470* -0.222 -0.035 -0.035 -0.636*
开花期Flowering stage -0.410 -0.608* -0.727* -0.702* -0.665*
中科2011 Zhongke2011 灌浆期Filling stage 千粒重
1000-grain weight
-0.150 0.068 -0.536* -0.456* -0.470*
开花期Flowering stage -0.643* -0.965* -0.588* -0.822* -0.540*

Fig. 8

EDD distribution of wheat varieties Zhongke 2011 (a) and Liangxing 99 (b) at flowering and filling stages"

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