全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响ⅩⅢ. 东北三省春玉米熟型调整的降水限制及其对产量的可能影响

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2021.18.005

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Under the background of climate change, this study focused on the changing precipitation and its possible influence on yield in the sensitive areas with adjusting spring maize maturity cultivars in the three provinces in Northeastern China, which could provide a scientific reference for the local cultivars’ adjustment of spring maize. 【Method】 Taking 1985 as the time node, the period of 1961-2017 was split into two sub-periods (1961-1985 and 1986-2017) in this study. Based on the observed meteorological data in 24 meteorological stations and observed maize growth stages in 16 agrometeorological experimental stations in the sensitive area, the changing characteristics of water conditions in the maize growth stages was analyzed, and the influence of precipitation on the climatic potential yield was adjusted by the ‘correction step by step’ method. 【Result】(1)During 1961-2017, the actual sowing dates in the sensitive area showed an advanced trend, while the maturity dates showed a delayed trend, which indicated the adjustment of maturity cultivars in the actual practice and the actual growth stage was prolonged. (2)The adjustment of maturity cultivars in sensitive areas increased the water demand in the early (sowing to jointing) and late (flowering to maturity) stages, but decreased the water demand in the middle (jointing to flowering) stage. Meanwhile, the effective precipitation in the early stage showed an increasing trend, while a decreasing trend was found in the middle and late stages. (3)After the adjustment of maturity cultivars, the satisfaction rate of effective precipitation in the middle stage was the lowest. (4)With the adjustment of maturity cultivars, the climatic potential yield showed a decreasing trend in Kuandian and Tongyu stations in the south and west of area 5, where those middle-late-maturing cultivars were adjusted into late-maturing ones. However, the climatic potential yield showed an increasing trend and decreased in the north of area 1 where especial-early-maturing cultivars were adjusted into early-maturing cultivars, and area 3 where early-maturing cultivars were adjusted into middle-maturing cultivars. 【Conclusion】 Under the background of climate change, the effective precipitation satisfaction rate, K value in sensitive areas of Northeast China decreased in the middle and late growth stages, and the climatic potential yield decreased in the west and south of the study area, while increased in the east with high instability. Therefore, in the eastern, western, and southern parts of sensitive areas, more attention should be paid to the selection of mature cultivars of spring maize, and irrigation should be carried out in time in the middle and late growth stages of spring maize.

Key words: three provinces of Northeastern China, sensitive area, spring maize, production potential

LI E,ZHAO Jin,YE Qing,GAO JiQing,YANG XiaoGuang. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China ⅫⅠ. Precipitation Limitation on Adjusting Maturity Cultivars of Spring Maize and Its Possible Influence on Yield in Three Provinces of Northeastern China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2021, 54(18): 3847-3859.

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区域名称 Area name	品种熟型调整特征 Adjustment characteristics of maturity cultivars	站点名称 Station name	所用生育期站点名称 Name of growth period station used	生育期数据时间 Growth period data time
区域1 Area 1	特早熟调整为早熟 Especial-early was adjusted into early	黑河 Heihe	嘉萌Jiameng	1995-2007
区域1 Area 1	特早熟调整为早熟 Especial-early was adjusted into early	孙吴Sunwu	嘉萌Jiameng	1995-2007
区域2 Area 2	早熟调整为中熟 Early was adjusted into middle	克山Keshan	海伦Hailun	1981-2007
		明水Mingshui	青冈Qinggang	1982-2007
		海伦Hailun	海伦Hailun	1981-2007
		铁力Tieli	佳木斯Jiamusi	1990-2007
		鹤岗Hegang	集贤Jixian	1983-2007
区域3 Area 3	早熟调整为中熟 Early was adjusted into middle	虎林Hulin	集贤Jixian	1983-2007
区域3 Area 3	早熟调整为中熟 Early was adjusted into middle	尚志Shangzhi	五常Wuchang	1983-2007
区域4 Area 4	中熟调整为中晚熟 Middle was adjusted into middle-late	齐齐哈尔Qiqihaer	富裕Fuyu	1995-2007
		安达Anda	青冈Qinggang	1982-2007
		哈尔滨Harbin	哈尔滨Harbin	1984-2007
		三岔河Sanchahe	扶余Fuyu	1981-1989、2000-2006
		桦甸Huadian	桦甸Huadian	1981-2006
		通化Tonghua	通化Tonghua	1981-2006
		临江Linjiang	梅河口Meihekou	1985-2006
区域5 Area 5	中晚熟调整为晚熟 Middle-late was adjusted into late	通榆Tongyu	长岭Changling	1981-2006
		乾安Qian’an	农安Nong’an	1984-2004
		长岭Changling	长岭Changling	1981-2006
		双辽Shuangliao	梨树Lishu	1981-2006
		四平Siping	梨树Lishu	1981-2006
		宽甸Kuandian	宽甸Kuandian	1981-1993
		前郭尔罗斯Qianguoerluosi	农安Nong’an	1984-2004
		集安Ji’an	通化Tonghua	1981-2006

Kc	前期 Early stage	中期 Middle stage	后期 Late stage
Kc	0.3	1.15	0.6
生育阶段 Growth period	播种—拔节 Sowing-jointing	拔节—开花（吐丝） Jointing-flowering (spinning)	开花（吐丝）—成熟 Flowering (spinning)-maturity

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China ⅫⅠ. Precipitation Limitation on Adjusting Maturity Cultivars of Spring Maize and Its Possible Influence on Yield in Three Provinces of Northeastern China

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