基于改进权重湿润指数的东北地区春玉米涝渍灾害评估方法

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.11.005

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】The aim of this study investigated the evaluation methods of spring maize waterlogging disasters in Northeast China, so as to provide a scientific basis for the rational production and management of spring maize in Northeast China under the background of climate change. 【Method】Based on the Weight Moist Index (WMI), the crop water demand, instead of the reference crop evapotranspiration, was used to construct an Improved Weight Moist Index (IWMI). The coupling method of waterlogging disaster events and IWMI during the growth period of spring maize in Northeast China from 1986 to 2015, the normal distribution significance test method based on K-S test, and the estimation method of t-distribution interval were used to determine the thresholds for waterlogging intensity grading of different growth stages in spring maize. The correlation and fitting relationship of soil relative humidity and IWMI, the consistency of the evaluation results on IWMI and WMI and waterlogging disaster statistics results, and the accuracy of the assessment on dynamic process of waterlogging disasters in typical years were analyzed to evaluate the IWMI precision. The spatial pattern of waterlogging at different growth stages of spring maize in Northeast China was analyzed, and then its regular characteristics were revealed. 【Result】 (1) IWMI was significantly correlated with soil relative humidity at different depths (P<0.001). Except for the rapidly developmental period of maize, in the other stages, the maximum correlation coefficient of both appeared at 20 cm depth. Through fitting the IWMI and the soil relative humidity at 20 cm depth based on a Slogistic model, it was found that the maximum coefficient of determination (R ²) appeared in the middle period (0.46), followed by the end period (0.34), the rapidly developmental period (0.31) and the initial growth period (0.21). The minimum root mean square error (RMSE) appeared in the end period (0.49), followed by the middle period (0.51), the initial growth period (0.52), and the rapidly developmental period (0.56). The values of the IWMI corresponding to soil relative humidity of 90% at 20 cm depth were 0.77 in the initial growth period, 1.12 in the rapidly developmental period, 1.21 in the middle period, and 1.25 in the end period. (2) Compared with the disaster diagnosis results in the test samples of the spring maize waterlogging disaster events randomly reserved, the complete accuracy rate and partial accuracy rate of the WMI evaluation results were 26.7% and 66.7%, respectively, while the complete accuracy rate and partial accuracy rate of the IWMI were 66.7% and 93.3%, respectively. (3)Taking the waterlogging disasters during the growth period of spring maize in 1998 in Nenjiang, Baicheng and Shenyang stations as examples, changes of the precipitation, WMI and the IWMI with the days of the year were compared, and it was found that the time of occurrence and intensity level of the waterlogging evaluated by the IWMI were more consistent with the disaster records, and IWMI could also be used to represent the dynamic change of the waterlogging intensity. (4) The frequency of waterlogging of the different intensity levels in spring maize had a great difference. The central part of Heilongjiang, southeastern Jilin, and southeastern Liaoning were high-incidence areas with moderate and above waterlogging, and the middle period was a period of high frequency of moderate and above waterlogging. 【Conclusion】Based on the IWMI, the method of determining the thresholds of waterlogging intensities at different growth stages of spring maize in Northeast China was reliable, which could be used to characterize the actual occurrence of farmland waterlogging. Compared with the WMI, IWMI not only had a higher accuracy, but also was more suitable to track and evaluate the dynamic assess of waterlogging disasters, which was of great significance to reveal the catastrophic mechanism and spatio-temporal evolution of spring maize waterlogging disasters in Northeast China under the background of climate change.

Key words: Northeast China, spring maize, improved weight moist index, waterlogging intensity grade, evaluation

LIU Cong,WU YongFeng,LIU PingHui,LIANG LiJiang. Evaluation Method of Spring Maize Waterlogging Disaster in Northeast China Based on Improved Weight Moist Index[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2020, 53(11): 2182-2194.

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Figures/Tables 8

Table 1

Fig. 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Fig. 2

Table 5

Verification and comparison on the indices evaluation results through spring maize waterlogging disaster events"

事件序列 Sequence	发生站点 Station	灾情记录统计结果 Statistical of waterlogging		权重湿润指数评估结果 Evaluation results based on WMI			改进权重湿润指数评估结果 Evaluation results based on IWMI
事件序列 Sequence	发生站点 Station	时间 Time	程度 Degree	时间 Time	程度 Degree	检验情况Inspection	时间 Time	程度 Degree	检验情况Inspection
1	虎林 Hulin	1988.5.14-5.31	重 Severe	—	—	×	5月中-5月下 Mid May-Late May	中、轻 Moderate、light	◎
2	辽中 Liaozhong	1991.7.1-7.31	重 Severe	7.3-8.5	重 Severe	√	7月上-7月下 Early Jul-Mid Jul	重、重、重 Severe、severe、severe	√
3	同江 Tongjiang	1992.6.1-6.30	重 Severe	6.8-6.17	轻 Light	×	6月上-6月中 Early Jun-Mid Jun	重、重 Severe、sever	◎
4	鹤岗 Hegang	1994.9.30	重 Severe	9.20-10.17	中 Moderate	◎	9月下 Late Sept	重 severe	√
5	双阳 Shuangyang	1997.8.21	轻 Light	—	—	×	8月下 Late Aug	轻 Light	√
6	呼玛 Huma	1998.5.21-6.20	重 Severe	—	—	×	5月下-6月中 Late May-Mid Jun	重、重、重 Severe、severe、severe	√
7	榆树 Yushu	1998.6.28	轻 Light	—	—	×	—	—	×
8	方正 Fangzheng	2000.8.11-8.20	轻 Light	8.15-8.24	轻 Light	◎	8月中 Mid Aug	轻 Light	√
9	尚志 Shangzhi	2003.7.27	中 Moderate	7.26-8.12	轻 Light	◎	7月中 Mid Jul	中 Moderate	√
10	肇源 Zhaoyuan	2005.7.12-7.18	轻 Light	7.6-7.17	轻 Light	√	7月中 Mid Jul	轻 Light	√
11	通化县 Tonghua	2005.8.14-8.15	中 Moderate	8.13-8.29	中 Moderate	√	8月中 Mid Aug	重 Severe	◎
12	鸡西 Jixi	2008.8.12	轻 Light	8.12-8.21	轻 Light	√	8月中 Mid Aug	轻 Light	√
13	五营 Wuying	2009.6.19-6.21	重 Severe	6.19-7.10	重 Severe	◎	6月中-7月上 Mid Jun-Early Jul	重、重、中 Severe、severe、moderate	◎
14	辽源 Lianyuan	2010.7.19-7.24	重 Severe	7.21-8.11	中 Moderate	◎	7月下 Late Jul	重 Severe	√
15	东丰 Dongfeng	2013.8.14-8.17	轻 Light	8.16-9.7	中 Moderate	◎	8月中 Mid Aug	轻 Light	√

Table 5

Fig. 3

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强度等级 Grade	持续时间 Duration	过程累积程度指数 CWMI
正常No disaster	<10 d	≤10
轻度 Light	10 - 20 d	10 - 30
中度 Moderate	20 - 30 d	30 - 60
重度 Severe	>30 d	>60

生育阶段 Developmental stage	灾害等级 Disaster grade	改进权重湿润指数序列个数 Number of IWMI sequence	K-S正态分布显著性检验值 K-S test value for normal distribution significance	95%置信区间 95% confidence interval
初始生长期 Initial growth period	轻 Light	7	0.5363	0.73-2.92
	中 Moderate	8	0.2388	1.49-4.60
	重 Severe	18	0.8151	2.53-4.45
快速发育期 Rapidly developmental period	轻 Light	37	1.0000	1.14-1.84
	中 Moderate	36	0.8805	1.97-2.48
	重 Severe	61	0.5589	2.91-3.61
生育中期 Middle period	轻 Light	47	1.0000	1.26-1.63
	中 Moderate	64	1.0000	2.12-2.51
	重 Severe	64	0.0618	2.93-3.86
生育后期 End period	轻 Light	13	0.2673	1.26-2.56
	中 Moderate	8	1.0000	2.09-2.89
	重 Severe	15	0.0523	2.98-4.74

生育阶段 Developmental stage	涝渍强度等级 Waterlogging grade
生育阶段 Developmental stage	无涝渍 No waterlogging	轻度 Light	中度 Moderate	重度 Severe
初始生长期Initial growth period	≤0.75	（0.75,1.50]	(1.50,2.55]	>2.55
快速发育期Rapidly developmental period	≤1.15	（1.15,1.95]	(1.95,2.90]	>2.90
生育中期Middle period	≤1.25	（1.25,2.10]	(2.10,2.95]	>2.95
生育后期End period	≤1.25	（1.25,2.10]	(2.10,3.00]	>3.00

土壤相对湿度 Relative soil moisture	初始生长期 Initial growth period	快速发育期 Rapidly developmental period	生育中期 Middle period	生育后期 End period	全生育期 Whole growth period
10 cm	0.479***	0.533***	0.529***	0.460***	0.480***
20 cm	0.484***	0.492***	0.581***	0.532***	0.514***
50 cm	0.243***	0.391***	0.434***	0.412***	0.330***

Evaluation Method of Spring Maize Waterlogging Disaster in Northeast China Based on Improved Weight Moist Index

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