中国北方地区小麦覆盖栽培增产效应的荟萃（Meta）分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2022.06.004

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】The aim of this study was to identify the impact of straw mulching and plastic film mulching on wheat production in Northern China, so as to explore the suitable promotion areas of two mulching systems.【Method】In this study, a total of 165 literature was retrieved and screened in recent 40 years, which were put into the framework of Meta-analysis, and were carried out through different forms of overall effect analysis (such as change rate and response ratio) for theoretical research. Generally, by adopting random effect model, the changes of wheat agronomic indexes and farmland moisture conditions under different mulching patterns were analyzed. Then, the response rules of mulching yield increasing effect to various environmental conditions (altitude, precipitation, temperature, and sunshine) and field management measures (mulching period, planting density, tillage, and fertilization) were revealed by subgroup analysis, while the function fitting, weight analysis and statistical test were carried out. The correlation between the variables involved in this study was quantitatively analyzed by Pearson correlation coefficient method.【Result】Compared with the open field cultivation, the straw and plastic film mulching significantly increased wheat yield by 19.53% (95%CI =0.55%-38.52%) and 24.91% (95%CI =3.18%-46.64%), which also inhibited field evapotranspiration. Furthermore, it was found that there were some differences in contribution rate of yield components to yield under different mulching patterns, which were: effective spike number > grain number per spike > 1000 grain weight (straw mulching); effective spike number > 1 000 grain weight > grain number per spike (plastic film mulching). The increase of grain number per spike under straw mulching was higher, that about 5.7% (95%CI = -4.10%-15.50%); while increase of effective spike number and 1000 grain weight under film mulching was more significant, which were 25.2% (95%CI = 14.11%-36.29%) and 6.4% (95%CI = 1.50%-11.30%), respectively. In addition to the advantages of promoting production, the biomass and water use efficiency of film mulching were also 18.17% and 14.39% higher than that of straw mulching, respectively. Specifically, the yield increase rate of plastic film mulching was 0.89%-23.34% higher than that of straw mulching in most meteorological subregions. Meanwhile, with the declined of terrain height, the yield increasing effect of plastic film showed the growth trend, compared with non-mulching treatments, and the yield increase rate could reach 34.26% in low altitude area (< 800m). However, the yield increasing advantage of plastic film mulching over straw mulching was declined gradually with the increase of mulching years. In the more than 8 years of mulching experiments, the overall yield increasing rate of straw mulching was higher. The yield of straw mulching was also affected by fertilization and tillage measures, especially in the three treatments of no tillage, no fertilization and applying phosphate fertilizer, the yield increase rates were 32.68%, 25.94% and 21.71%, respectively. According to statistical test, among the three subgroups of altitude, average annual sunshine hours and planting density, their inter group heterogeneity Q test statistics were larger, indicated that the variation degree of each effect quantity in these groups was higher. Finally, it was found that under the conditions of straw and plastic film mulching, the factors with the highest correlation to yield were effective spike number (r = 0.808) and water use efficiency (r = 0.718), while the most primary factors affecting the soil water content in two mulching systems were evapotranspiration (r = -0.859) and water use efficiency (r = 0.856), respectively.【Conclusion】In conclusion, these two mulching patterns possessed obvious effect on yield increase, while plastic film mulching had more advantages in low altitude, relative drought and cold regions; The straw mulching was more suitable for long-term conservation tillage system, so as to achieve the coordinated development of production and ecology. Therefore, the key to the success of wheat mulching technology in northern China is to choose scientific mulching methods according to local and time conditions.

Key words: straw mulching, plastic film mulching, wheat, yield, meta-analysis

QIN YuQing,CHENG HongBo,CHAI YuWei,MA JianTao,LI Rui,LI YaWei,CHANG Lei,CHAI ShouXi. Increasing Effects of Wheat Yield Under Mulching Cultivation in Northern of China: A Meta-Analysis[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2022, 55(6): 1095-1109.

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线性模型 Linear model	处理 Treatment	增产率 YIR (%)	权重 Weight (%)	置信区间 CI (%)		Z	P	Q	P_Q	n
线性模型 Linear model	处理 Treatment	增产率 YIR (%)	权重 Weight (%)	下限 LL	上限 UL	Z	P	Q	P_Q	n
随机效应模型 REM	秸秆覆盖 Straw mulching	19.53	43.94	0.55	38.52	5.94	0.022	956	0.000	185
随机效应模型 REM	地膜覆盖 Plastic mulching	24.91	56.06	3.18	46.64	6.43	0.007	814	0.012	236

变量 Variable	亚组 Sub-group	Qtra	P-Qtra	Qter	P-Qter	CV (%)	Weight (%)
海拔 Altitude (m)	< 800	25.42(17.65)	<0.05(<0.05)	79.56(53.68)	<0.01(<0.01)	20.54(12.81)	14.05(7.44)
	800-1 150	9.55(4.98)	<0.05(0.255)			13.56(12.54)	9.92(15.98)
	1 150-1 250	15.30(7.29)	<0.01(<0.05)			13.05(21.65)	26.17(13.77)
	> 1 250	49.15(16.36)	<0.01(<0.05)			15.45(12.25)	7.99(4.68)
年均降水量 Annual mean precipitation (mm)	< 450	7.61(4.09)	<0.05(0.296)	15.93(33.54)	<0.05(<0.01)	10.53(12.00)	8.73(9.98)
	450-550	5.22(6.05)	0.262(0.080)			14.62(15.11)	11.47(7.23)
	550-650	4.34(4.90)	0.133(0.116)			13.20(13.68)	19.20(26.18)
	> 650	2.31(5.57)	0.523(0.122)			20.55(9.03)	4.99(12.22)
年均气温 Annual mean air temperature (℃)	< 9	4.49(5.16)	0.207(0.195)	6.63(10.50)	0.057(<0.05)	11.64(14.74)	8.06(12.24)
	9-10.5	6.55(1.12)	<0.05(0.551)			10.25(15.07)	11.64(19.70)
	10.5-12.5	4.22(6.85)	0.376(<0.05)			13.87(12.51)	4.78(8.69)
	> 12.5	1.25(2.27)	0.415(0.364)			8.32(1.99)	19.10(15.52)
年均日照时数 Annual mean sunshine hours (h)	< 2 200	43.68(52.02)	<0.05(<0.01)	77.68(120.54)	<0.01(<0.01)	15.36(21.60)	10.96(14.04)
	2 200-2 500	33.98(12.84)	<0.01(<0.05)			19.09(11.68)	16.67(15.79)
	> 2200	27.58(60.17)	<0.05(<0.01)			12.25(11.87)	17.98(24.56)

变量 Variable	亚组 Sub-group	Qtra	P-Qtra	Qter	P-Qter	CV (%)	Weight (%)
覆盖周期 Mulching period	1~2	3.80(10.35)	0.327(<0.05)	9.66(42.56)	0.604(<0.01)	15.81(17.15)	7.62(19.06)
	3~4	5.43(18.54)	0.092(<0.01)			12.73(15.59)	14.37(17.01)
	5~8	1.89(15.42)	0.578(<0.05)			8.92(13.72)	12.61(10.26)
	> 8	2.57(13.32)	0.436(<0.01)			22.97(10.54)	15.25(3.81)
种植密度 Planting density (×10⁴plants/hm²)	< 300	35.01(18.74)	<0.01(<0.05)	151.40(36.15)	<0.01(<0.01)	13.56(15.74)	7.76(10.05)
	300~400	99.55(10.37)	<0.01(<0.05)			20.99(22.52)	17.81(21.00)
	> 400	41.03(14.28)	<0.01(<0.05)			19.40(15.17)	19.63(23.74)
耕作模式 Tillage pattern	传统耕作CT	12.84(9.35)	<0.05(<0.05)	25.19(33.21)	<0.05(<0.01)	10.97(10.51)	8.51(13.62)
	免耕NT	11.27(7.34)	<0.05(0.063)			15.28(7.71)	21.70(10.21)
	旋耕RT	6.55(1.90)	0.075(0.449)			14.32(13.94)	14.04(5.11)
	深松耕ST	14.43(8.54)	<0.01(<0.05)			11.56(8.57)	16.60(10.21)
施肥方式 Fertilization measure	不施肥NF	11.35(2.16)	<0.05(0.389)	50.66(14.20)	<0.01(<0.05)	18.55(13.06)	10.99(4.71)
	单施氮肥AN	15.23(2.26)	<0.01(0.397)			12.80(14.49)	3.93(5.76)
	单施磷肥AP	41.31(2.48)	<0.01(0.303)			13.15(20.92)	3.93(5.76)
	单施有机肥AO	5.24(6.55)	0.856(0.527)			14.06(14.28)	9.42(7.59)
	单施无机肥AI	18.80(5.54)	<0.01(<0.05)			10.83(9.54)	4.97(7.07)
	有机无机配施OIF	5.17(3.11)	0.127(0.278)			11.98(15.77)	15.45(20.42)

	产量 Yield	生物产量 Biomass	有效穗数Effective spike number	穗粒数 Grain number per spike	千粒重 1000-grain weight	蒸散量 ET	水分利用效率 WUE	土壤含水量 Soil water content
产量 Yield	1
生物产量 Biomass	0.686** 0.443*	1
有效穗数 Effective spike number	0.808 0.677	0.201 0.165	1
穗粒数 Grain number per spike	0.796** 0.364	0.548* 0.501*	-0.537* -0.887**	1
千粒重 1000-grain weight	0.549* 0.586*	0.086 0.340	-0.563* 0.760*	-0.532* -0.391	1
蒸散量 ET	-0.064 -0.054	-0.112 -0.438**	-0.368 0.845**	0.336 0.224	-0.517* -0.758**	1
水分利用效率 WUE	0.312 0.718**	0.195 0.667**	0.224 0.167	0.428 0.875**	0.258 0.490*	-0.561* -0.913**	1
土壤含水量 Soil water content	0.473* 0.492*	0.632* 0.145	0.460* 0.259	0.227 0.456*	0.524* 0.411	-0.859 -0.783	0.414 0.856**	1

Increasing Effects of Wheat Yield Under Mulching Cultivation in Northern of China: A Meta-Analysis

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