全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XIV.东北大豆高产稳产区及农业气象灾害分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2022.09.006

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 Soybean is an important oil-seeds crop, and Northeast China (NEC) is the main soybean productive region of China. It is important to investigate the distribution of zones both high yield and high yield stability of rain-fed potential yield and to identify the major agro-meteorological disasters, which could provide important scientific references for the reasonable layout of soybean.【Method】The year 1981 was taken as a time node wan divided the period 1961-2019 into two sub-periods (1961-1981 and 1981-2019). The well-calibrated DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean model was applied to simulate rain-fed soybean potential yield at each stations in possible planting area of NEC to clarify the distribution of zones both high yield and high yield stability. The distribution and temporal changes of cold damage and drought were identified in different high-yield and stable-yield zones. Coupled with statistical methods, the limitations of major agro-meteorological disasters on soybean high-stable-yield were further analyzed. 【Result】 (1) Compared with 1961 to 1980 (period Ⅰ), the soybean possible planting area was increased by 2.81×10⁶ hm² (3.57% of the whole land area in NEC). (2) Compared with periodⅠ, the percentage of high stability yield zones area of possible planting area increasing in periodⅡ. The percentage of high-stable zones area in possible planting area decreased from 17.67% to 17.11%, and the percentage of high-unstable yield zones area increased from 34.98% to 38.17%, while the percentage of low-stable area increased from 34.98% to 38.17% and the percentage of low-unstable zones area decreased from 18.58% to 18.49%. (3) During the study period, the frequency of cold damage during soybean growing season showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing. High-stable zones and high-unstable zones showed higher cold damage frequency, especially serious cold damage. The frequency of light drought and moderate drought increased, but the serious drought frequency decreased during the soybean growing season. (4) The yield changes of soybean in zones both high yield and high yield stability were negatively correlated with cold damage frequency, and yield variation changes of soybean were negatively correlated with both cold damage and drought frequencies. 【Conclusion】Under the background of climate warming, the soybean possible planting area expanded northward and westward in NEC, and the area increased. The area of high-unstable and low-stable zones increased, while the area of high-stable and low-unstable zones decreased. The main agro-meteorological disasters were different in zones both high yield and high yield stability. The frequency of cold damage in low yield zones was higher than that in high yield zones, while the frequency of drought in unstable yield zones was higher than stable yield zones. However, in areas with the change in high yield and high yield staiblity zones, the frequency of cold damage decreased and the frequency of drought increased. In summary, the cold damage was the main limiting factor in soybean yield increasing, while cold damage and drought were the main limiting factors in yield stability increasing.

Key words: climate change, soybean of Northeast China, high yield zones, stable yield zones, cold damage, drought

GUO ShiBo, ZHANG FangLiang, ZHANG ZhenTao, ZHOU LiTao, ZHAO Jin, YANG XiaoGuang. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XIV. Distribution of High-Stable-Yield Zones and Agro-Meteorological Disasters of Soybean in Northeast China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2022, 55(9): 1763-1780.

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Figures/Tables 15

Fig. 1

Table1

Table 2

Description of genetic coefficients of soybean in the DSSAT-CSM-Soybean (v4.7) model"

作物参数 Crop parameter	单位 Unit	描述 Description
EM-FL	d	出苗到初花所需的日数（R1,光温日数） Time between plant emergence and flower appearance (R1, photothermal days)
FL-SH	d	初花到第一个荚所需的日数（R3,光温日数） Time between first flower and first pod (R3, photothermal days)
FL-SD	d	初花到初粒所需的日数（R5,光温日数） Time between first flower and first seed (R5, photothermal days)
SD-PM	d	初粒到生理成熟所需日数（R7,光温日数） Time between first seed (R5) and physiological maturity (R7, photothermal days)
FL-LF	d	第一朵花到叶片完全伸展所需的日数（光温日数） Time between first flower (R1) and end of leaf expansion (photothermal days)
LFMAX	mg CO₂·m^-2·s^-1	光饱和状态下,最适宜温度条件下最大叶片光合速率 Maximum leaf photosynthesis rate at 30℃, 350 vpm CO₂, and high light
SLAVR	cm²·g^-1	代表性叶面积或营养生长高峰期通过环境因子修正的新叶比叶面积 Specific leaf area of cultivar under standard growth conditions
SIZLF	cm²	标准生长条件下,全部叶片的最大面积 Maximum size of full leaf (three leaflets)
XFRT	—	分配到种子和荚皮的每日生长最大百分数 Maximum fraction of daily growth that is partitioned to seed + shell
WTPSD	g	每粒种子的最大重量 Maximum weight per seed
SFDUR	d	标准生长状况下,籽粒灌浆所需日数（光温日数） Seed filling duration for pod cohort at standard growth conditions (photothermal days)
SDPDV	#/pod	标准生长状况下,每个豆荚的平均籽粒数 Average seed per pod under standard growing conditions
PODUR	d	品种在最佳状态下,达到豆荚最大数量时所经历的日数（光温日数） Time required for cultivar to reach final pod load under optimal conditions (photothermal days)

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省份 Province	播种日期 Sowing date	分枝日期 Branch date	开花日期 Flowering date	成熟日期 Maturity date
辽宁 Liaoning	4下-5上 L-Apr. to E-May	6中-下 M-Jun. to L-Jun.	7上 E-Jul.	9中 M-Sep.
吉林 Jilin	5上-中 E-May to M-May	6中-下 M-Jun. to L-Jun.	7上 E-Jul.	9中-下 M-Sep. to L-Sep.
黑龙江 Heilongjiang	5中 M-May	6下 L-Jun.	7上-中 E-Jul. to M-Jul.	9下 L-Sep.

熟期组 Maturity group (MG)	站点 Station	数据集 Subset	试验年份或参数来源 Experiment data or parameters source
MG00	嫩江 Nenjiang	调参 Calibration	1991-1994
MG00	嫩江 Nenjiang	验证 Evaluation	1995, 1997-2000
MG0	宝清 Baoqing	调参 Calibration	1991, 1992, 1994
MG0	宝清 Baoqing	验证 Evaluation	1995-1997
MGⅠ	哈尔滨 Haerbin	调参 Calibration	1992-1995
MGⅠ	哈尔滨 Haerbin	验证 Evaluation	1997-2000
MGⅡ	双阳 Shuangyang	调参 Calibration	1991-1994
MGⅡ	双阳 Shuangyang	验证 Evaluation	1996, 1997, 1999, 2000
MGⅢ	新民 Xinmin	调参 Calibration	1992-1995
MGⅢ	新民 Xinmin	验证 Evaluation	1998-2000

冷害强度 Cold damage intensity		T_5-9≤80	80<T_5-9≤85	85<T_5-9≤90	90<T_5-9≤95	95<T_5-9≤100	100<T_5-9≤105
∆T_5-9	一般冷害 Gentle cold damage	-1.7<∆T_5-9≤-1.1	-2.4<∆T_5-9≤-1.4	-3.1<∆T_5-9≤-1.7	-3.7<∆T_5-9≤-2.0	-4.1<∆T_5-9≤-2.2	-4.4<∆T_5-9≤-2.3
∆T_5-9	严重冷害 Serious cold damage	∆T_5-9≤-1.7	∆T_5-9≤-2.4	∆T_5-9≤-3.1	∆T_5-9≤-3.7	∆T_5-9≤-4.1	∆T_5-9≤-4.4

干旱等级 Drought level	作物水分亏缺指数（CWDI,%）
无旱 No drought	CWDI≤35
轻旱 Light drought	35<CWDI≤45
中旱 Moderate drought	45<CWDI≤55
重旱 Severe drought	55<CWDI≤65
特旱 Extreme drought	CWDI>65

	时段Ⅰ PeriodⅠ		时段Ⅱ PeriodⅡ		与时段I相比面积变化 Change in area compared to periodⅠ
	面积 Area (×10⁶ hm²)	占潜在种植区土地面积比例 Percentage in research area (%)	面积 Area (×10⁶ hm²)	占研究种植区土地面积比例 Percentage in research area (%)	面积 Area (×10⁶ hm²)	占研究种植区土地面积比例 Percentage in research area (%)
高产稳产区 High-stable	11.99	17.67	11.62	17.11	-0.37	-0.54
高产不稳产区 High-unstable	9.19	13.54	10.28	15.13	1.08	1.59
低产稳产区 Low-stable	23.75	34.98	25.92	38.17	2.17	3.19
低产不稳产区 Low-unstable	18.58	27.36	18.49	27.24	-0.08	-0.12

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XIV. Distribution of High-Stable-Yield Zones and Agro-Meteorological Disasters of Soybean in Northeast China

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	冷害发生频次 Frequency of cold damage (%)						干旱发生频次 Frequency of drought (%)
	一般冷害 Gentle cold damage		严重冷害 Serious cold damage		总冷害 Sum cold damage		轻旱 Light drought		中旱 Moderate drought		重旱 Severe drought		轻旱及以上干旱 Light drought and above
	时段Ⅰ PeriodⅠ	时段Ⅱ PeriodⅡ	时段Ⅰ PeriodⅠ	时段Ⅱ PeriodⅡ	时段Ⅰ PeriodⅠ	时段Ⅱ PeriodⅡ	时段Ⅰ PeriodⅠ	时段Ⅱ PeriodⅡ	时段Ⅰ PeriodⅠ	时段Ⅱ PeriodⅡ	时段Ⅰ PeriodⅠ	时段Ⅱ PeriodⅡ	时段Ⅰ PeriodⅠ	时段Ⅱ PeriodⅡ
高产稳产区 High-stable	10.0	13.3	10.2	11.7	20.2	25.0	21.8	22.9	15.2	13.8	5.1	5.6	42.1	42.4
高产不稳产区 High-unstable	7.1	14.3	8.9	9.6	16.1	24.1	25.7	18.4	24.6	22.8	17.5	16.0	67.9	57.2
低产稳产区 Low-stable	9.2	10.6	18.8	20.2	28.1	30.8	31.5	27.3	13.8	12.6	1.5	4.0	46.9	43.9
低产不稳产区 Low-unstable	8.2	13.1	18.8	17.6	27.1	30.8	23.2	25.4	24.7	28.8	16.2	19.5	64.1	73.7

农业气象灾害 Agro-meteorological disasters	高产性 High yield				稳产性 High yield stability
农业气象灾害 Agro-meteorological disasters	高产稳产区 High-stable	高产不稳产区 High-unstable	低产稳产区 Low-stable	低产不稳产区 Low-unstable	高产稳产区 High-stable	高产不稳产区 High-unstable	低产稳产区 Low-stable	低产不稳产区 Low-unstable
一般冷害 Gentle cold damage	—	—	—	-29.08	—	—	1.59**	0.60
严重冷害 Serious cold damage	—	-110.85**	-27.75*	—	—	2.43**	—	—
轻旱 Light drought	—	—	—	—	—	0.61**	0.92**	—
中旱 Moderate drought	—	—	—	-43.33**	—	0.71*	—	0.55
重旱 Serious drought	—	—	—	-41.39**	0.95*	0.82**	2.25**	0.53

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