Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2013, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (15): 3105-3114.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.15.004

• TILLAGE & CULTIVATION·PHYSIOLOGY & BIOCHEMISTRY·AGRICULTURE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Planting Distribution of Spring Maize and Its Productivity Under RCP4.5 Scenario in Northeast China in 2011—2050

 HU  Ya-南12, LIU  Ying-Jie-34   

  1. 1.Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081
    2.Shanxi Climate Center, Taiyuan 030006
    3.Public Meteorological Service Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
    4.Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2012-12-11 Online:2013-08-01 Published:2013-03-26

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Abstract: 【Objective】The study was aiming at the response of planting suitable areas for spring maize，its growth period and production to climate change. 【Method】 Based on the daily climate data of RCP4.5 scenario calculated by the regional climate model RegCM4 in Northeast China in 2011-2050, the empirical frequency method was used to predict the changes of planting area under 80% guaranteed rate for early maturity, mid-maturity and late maturity spring maize varieties, combined with crop model DSSAT4.5 to evaluate the changes of growth period and yield, and the planting suitability at the area expanded by climate change for late maturity spring maize in Heilongjiang province in the future. 【Result】 The ≥10℃ accumulated temperature showed an increasing trend in Northeast China. The planting northern boundary of different maize varieties will be moved northward or eastward at different degrees and the probable cultivation region will be larger than before. It is suitable for late maturity variety to grow at the expanded region in Heilongjiang province in 2011-2050. The impact of climate change on reproduction growth period is going to be bigger than the vegetation growth period for late maturity variety in this following 40 years in the original planting area, which was existed in 1981-2010 in Heilongjiang province, and the whole growth period will be shortened by 2-11 days. Meanwhile, the changes of yield in the future compared with present level will have a significant spatial difference. Yield change range will be both in ±20% with considering the CO2 fertilizer effect or not, but the yield of the considered one is higher. 【Conclusion】Planting suitability of the expanded region due to climate change needs to be evaluated with many factors contained for maize. The whole growth stage change of maize is mainly caused by the shortened reproduction growth of maize. The effects of CO2 concentration enrichment in air will counterbalance a part of disadvantage of increased temperature for maize yield.

Key words: spring maize , RCP4.5 climate scenario , Northeast China , heat resources , planting suitability , production assessment

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