全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XV.适应未来气候变化的我国油料作物种植布局调整

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2025.11.005

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 Oil crops are important sources of edible vegetable oil and feed protein. Soybean, canola, and peanut are the three major oil crops of China. This study aimed to clarify the climate suitability, and high-stable yield of oil crops under future climate change, and to propose adjustment of crop patterns framework, provided a theoretical basis for improving the total oil production and ensuring the safety of grain and oil in China under the background of climate change. 【Method】 Based on the yield, climate factors and agricultural technological factors of three oil crops from 1981 to 2019, a random forest model was constructed to predict yield under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2021 to 2060. Based on the crops’ climate suitability and high-stable yield, a comprehensive suitable area was divided. Combined with the impact of climate change, a framework of crops’ patterns adjustment to adapt to future climate change was proposed. Finally, the crops production, environment benefits and economic benefits before and after adjustment were clarified. 【Result】 (1) From 1981 to 2019, the proportion of soybean, canola, and peanut planting areas in the region with suitable climate and high-stable yield was 11.6%, 38.3%, and 46.0%, respectively. Future, the proportion of soybean planting area in this region will decrease, the proportion of canola will increase, and the proportion of peanuts will not change significantly. (2) After future adjustment, the planting area of soybean, canola and peanut will increase by 1.8×10⁶-2.6×10⁶ hm², 3.2×10⁶-3.9×10⁶ hm² and 0.8×10⁶-1.8×10⁶ hm², respectively. (3) The production of soybean, canola and peanut will increase by 140%, 150% and 150%, respectively, while the self-sufficiency rate of oil crop will increase by 7.9%-13.0%. The negative impact of climate change on production will decrease by 1.0×10⁶-1.8 ×10⁶ t. The total amount of nitrogen fertilizer application and greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 1.1×10⁶-1.5×10⁶ t and 9.7×10⁶-12.7×10⁶ t CO₂-eq, respectively. The total economic benefits will increase by 0.3×10⁵-0.4×10⁵ million yuan. 【Conclusion】 Under future climate change, the framework of adjustment of crop patterns for oil crops based on the climate suitability, high-stable yield and climate change impacts could expand the planting area of oil crops, increase crops production, reduce the negative impact of climate change, reduce total nitrogen fertilizer use and greenhouse gas emissions, and increase economic benefits.

Key words: climate change, oil crops, climate suitability, high and stable yield, adjustment of crop patterns

GUO ShiBo, ZHANG ZhenTao, GUO ErJing, ZHAO Jin, LIU ZhiJuan, ZHAO Chuang, YANG XiaoGuang. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XV. Adjustment of China’s Oil Crop Patterns to Adapt to Future Climate Change[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(11): 2118-2144.

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Figures/Tables 13

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Fig. 2

Table 1

Specific scheme of adjustment of crop patterns for different oil and grain crops."

综合适宜区 Comprehensive suitability		产量变化 Yield change		种植布局调整 Adjustment of crop pattern
油料作物 Oil crop	主粮作物 Grain crop	油料作物 Oil crop	主粮作物 Grain crop
SH/UH	SH/UH	+	+	不进行面积调整 No adjustment
SH/UH	SH/UH	+	-	总面积的75%分配给油料作物 75% of the total area is adjusted to oil crops
SH/UH	SH/UH	-	+	总面积的75%分配给主粮作物 75% of the total area is adjusted to grain crops
SL/UL	SH/UH	+	+	将该区域内主粮占总种植面积的比例进行排序，将15%分位数为阈值，每个地级市多余的面积分配给油料作物 The proportion of grain crops in the total planting area in the region was ranked, the 15% quantile was used as the threshold, and the excess area of each prefecture-level city is adjusted to oil crops
SL/UL	SH/UH	+	-	总面积的50%分配给油料作物 50% of the total area is adjusted to oil crops
SL/UL	SH/UH	-	+	总面积的100%分配给主粮作物 100% of the total area is adjusted to grain crops
SH/UH	SL/UL	+	+	将该区域内主粮作物占总面积的比例进行排序，将35%分位数为阈值，每个地级市多余的面积分配给油料作物 The proportion of grain crops in the total planting area in the region was ranked, the 35% quantile was used as the threshold, and the excess area of each prefecture-level city is adjusted to oil crops
SH/UH	SL/UL	+	-	总面积的100%分配给油料作物 100% of the total area is adjusted to oil crops
SH/UH	SL/UL	-	+	总面积的50%分配给主粮作物 50% of the total area is adjusted to grain crops
其余地级市 Other cities				将主粮作物单产由大到小进行排序，按顺序将总面积的75%分配给主粮作物，直至总产达到2019年的总产 Sort the yield of grain crops from high to low, and allocate 75% of the total area to grain crops in order until the total production reaches the total production of 2019

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农业投入 Agricultural input	系数Coefficient	单位 Unit	文献来源Reference source
氮肥 N fertilizer	8.30	kg CO₂-eq/kg N	[22]
磷肥 P fertilizer	0.79	kg CO₂-eq/kg P₂O₅
钾肥 K fertilizer	0.55	kg CO₂-eq/kg K₂O
农药 Pesticides	19.13	kg CO₂-eq/kg Pesticides
柴油 Diesel	1.43	kg CO₂-eq/L	[40]
劳动力 Labor	0.86	kg CO₂-eq/(person/day)	[41]
灌溉用电量 Electricity for irrigation	0.92	kg CO₂-eq/kWh	[38]
大豆种子 Soybean seed	0.58	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[42]
花生种子 Peanut seed	0.92	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[43]
油菜种子 Canola seed	0.83	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[37]
玉米种子 Maize seed	1.22	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[38]
小麦种子 Wheat seed	0.40	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[39]

布局调整 Patterns adjustment	作物 Crop	影响 Impact	SSP1-2.6		SSP5-8.5
布局调整 Patterns adjustment	作物 Crop	影响 Impact	2030s	2050s	2030s	2050s
调整前 Before adjustment	大豆 Soybean	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	19.2	19.1	19.1	18.9
	大豆 Soybean	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-2.9	-4.5	-4.1	-5.7
	油菜 Canola	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	13.4	13.1	13.2	13.0
	油菜 Canola	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-4.2	-9.0	-6.2	-8.0
	花生 Peanut	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	16.6	16.4	16.6	16.3
	花生 Peanut	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-3.0	-5.2	-3.2	-6.3
调整后 After adjustment	大豆 Soybean	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	27.5	27.3	27.1	25.7
	大豆 Soybean	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	1.4	0.6	1.0	-0.7
	油菜 Canola	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	20.2	19.7	20.1	19.1
	油菜 Canola	气候变化下总产的变化 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-0.2	-0.5	0.1	-0.9
	花生 Peanut	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	27.3	25.2	26.8	22.5
	花生 Peanut	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-0.9	-1.3	-1.4	-1.7

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XV. Adjustment of China’s Oil Crop Patterns to Adapt to Future Climate Change

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