Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2013, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (4): 705-714.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.04.005

• TILLAGE & CULTIVATION·PHYSIOLOGY & BIOCHEMISTRY·AGRICULTURE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY • Previous Articles     Next Articles

A Preliminary Study of Integrated Assessment of Wheat Natural Disaster Risk in China

 ZHAO  Jun-Ye, ZHANG  Qiao, ZHAO  Si-Jian   

  1. Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology of Ministry of Agriculture, Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2012-08-27 Online:2013-02-15 Published:2013-01-09

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Abstract: 【Objective】In order to explore the integrated assessment method of crop natural disaster risk, comprehensive evaluation and analysis of wheat natural disaster risk on the provincial units were carried out.【Method】 Based on the regional natural disaster theories, crop natural disaster integrated risk assessment index system was established. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and differentiated indexes weighted methods, the integrated assessment index of wheat natural disaster risk (I) was acquired, by which integrated assessment and zoning of wheat natural disaster risk was carried out, and the assessment results was verified by the estimated value of wheat yield loss (L) due to disasters.【Result】Based on frequency data of different natural disasters with wheat as hazard-bearing body, the components and hazard of disaster-causing factors of different provinces were analyzed. Forty indexes were chosen to appreciate stability of disaster environment (S), hazard of disaster-causing factor (H), vulnerability of wheat (V) and capability of disaster defending and resistance (C), which were compared within different provinces, and the risk integrated index I was assessed by the assessment model. The risk map of wheat natural disaster risk was drawn based on GIS, which showed that the higher risk regions mainly concentrated in Northwest wheat zone, Huanghuai wheat zone, and mid lower reaches of the Yangtze River wheat zone. The assessment result was found to be significantly correlated with the result of wheat yield loss (L) estimated.【Conclusion】The assessment method and results can be used to explore and develop integrated strategies including risk monitoring, forecasting, defending and resistance so as to mitigate wheat production risks.

Key words: wheat , natural disaster risk , integrated assessment , indexes system

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