影响呼伦贝尔草原土壤有机碳空间变异的主导因素

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2024.12.009

Abstract

Abstract:

【Background】 Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key component of the global carbon cycle in grassland ecosystems. In the context of climate change and grassland soil degradation, the study of the grassland carbon cycle has garnered extensive attention, particularly the in-depth analysis of the dynamics and driving factors of soil organic carbon in grasslands at different temporal and spatial scales. However, the estimation of long-term dynamic changes and the analysis of drivers for spatial variation in grassland SOC are primarily based on remote sensing modeling methods and simulation predictions, rather than direct measurements. 【Objective】 The aim of this study was to evaluate the relative importance of SOC spatial variation factors and their variation characteristics in different periods of Hulunbuir grassland. 【Method】 Based on the data of the second national soil survey in the 1980, the soil profiles of 31 sample sites in Hulunbuir grassland in 2022 were collected again, and the SOC changes and driving factors of Hulunbuir grassland were quantitatively analyzed in these two periods by establishing a multivariate linear model and a generalized additive model. 【Result】 From 1980 to 2022, the SOC of Hulunbuir grassland increased from 17.25 g·kg^-1 to 17.62 g·kg^-1 in 40 years, with an increase of 0.37 g·kg^-1. The relative importance of climatic factors increased from 22.1% in the 1980 to 72.9% in 2022, compared with a decrease in the relative importance of the topography and utilization intensity factors, which decreased from 38.8% and 39.2% in the 1980 to 13.5% and 13.5% in 2022, respectively. 【Conclusion】 The climatic factors, topography and use intensity jointly dominated the spatial variation of soil organic carbon in Hulunbuir grassland. Over the past 40 years, the climate factors have evolved from a secondary contributor to grassland SOC change to a major controlling factor.

Key words: organic carbon, spatial variation, regression model, climate change, topography, driving factors, Hulunbuir grassland

XUE Wei, XU LiJun, NIE YingYing, WU XinJia, YAN YiDan, YE LiMing, LIU XinWei. Study on Dominant Factors Affecting Spatial Variation of Soil Organic Carbon in Hulunbuir Grassland[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(12): 2378-2389.

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References 74

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变量 Variable		系数 Coefficient	标准误 Standard error	t值 t-value	P值 P-value
截距 Intercept		-1.528e+03	5.152e+02	-2.965	<0.001 **
分类变量 Categorical variables
利用强度 Utilization intensity	G1	6.971	2.615	2.666	0.017 *
	G2	5.106	2.425	2.105	0.050 ．
	G0	8.366	2.528	3.310	0.004 **
连续变量 Continuous variables
地形景观 Landscape index	Slope	7.029	1.410	4.980	<0.001 ***
气候因子 Climatic factor	PET	3.856	2.992	2.872	0.009 **
	PET2	-3.204e-03	1.066e-03	-3.005	0.008 **
	PET3	8.807e-07	2.921e-07	3.015	0.008 **

变量 Variable		系数 Coefficient	标准误差 Standard error	t值 t-value	P值 P-value
截距 Intercept		-54.987	15.437	4.153	0.004 **
分类变量 Categorical variable
利用强度 Utilization intensity	G1	19.095	4.597	2.666	0.001 **
	G2	19.035	4.924	3.866	0.002 **
	G3	27.668	4.831	5.727	0.002 **
连续变量 Continuous variable
地形因子 Landscape index	Elevation	0.079	0.021	3.859	0.002 **
气候因子 Climatic factor		有效自由度 edf	参考自由度 Ref.df	F值 F-value	P值 P-value
	s(MAT)	7.330	8.035	8.390	<0.001 ***
	S(MAA)	6.852	7.680	2.966	0.029 *

排序 Ranking	来源 Source	指标 Index	地区 Location	RMSE (g·kg^-1)	MAE (g·kg^-1)	MAPE (%)	R²
1	本研究（2022年） This study is in 2022	SOC	中国 China	1.90	1.47	14.44	0.92
2	SMITH et al.^[45] (2019)	SOC	美国 Amican	0.95	0.62	61.51	0.57
3	WU et al.^[46] (2022)	SOC	中国 Chna	1.66	1.35	8.86	0.18
4	PETER et al.^[47] (2015)	SOC	英国 UK	1.59	1.17	28.88	0.35
5	LEE et al.^[48] (2016)	SOC	蒙古国 Mongolia	12.37	8.48	3.27	0.58
6	本研究（1980年） This study is in 1980	SOC	中国China	3.20	2.61	20.08	0.77
7	ZHANG et al.^[49] (2018)	SOC	中国China	3.09	2.34	30.51	0.11

Study on Dominant Factors Affecting Spatial Variation of Soil Organic Carbon in Hulunbuir Grassland

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	MAT	MAT²	MAP	MAA	PET	PET²	PET³
本研究（2022） This study is in 2022	***	NA	NA	*	NA	NA	NA
本研究（1980） This study is in 1980	NA	NA	NA	NA	3.856**	-0.003**	8.81e-07**
英国（2015） UK（2015）^[47]	-10.680***	0.612***	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
中国内蒙古（2022） Inner Mongolia, China（2022）^[46]	1.240*	NA	0.0122	NA	NA	NA	NA
美国（2018） America（2018）^[45]	-0.109	NA	0.0141***	NA	NA	NA	NA
蒙古国（2016） Mongolia（2016）^[48]	-0.962	NA	0.006	0.725***	NA	NA	NA

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