非洲农业产量对气候变化响应与适应研究进展

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2014.16.004

Abstract

Abstract: Climate change has a negative impact on agriculture and food security, and this implication will be further going on and on in the future. We need to improve our understanding of the effects of climate change on agricultural production in Africa, and to know the responses of climate change to African agriculture. These are critical keys to adapt to climate change for agriculture in time. This paper introduced the response and adaptation of African agriculture to climate change, and summarized that statistical model, crop model and economic model are the three tools for researching this issue. The responses of climate change to African agriculture in the past and future were reviewed. The conclusions for possible effects of climate change on African agriculture in the future were different, depended on different time and space scales, research methods and crop types. The ranges of the effects were from -84% to 62%, -57% to 30% and -100% to 168% assessed by crop models, statistical models and economic models, respectively. As the big effects of climate change on African agriculture, the adaptation of African agriculture to climate change has been studied by more and more researchers. Adaptation measures like changing cultivars, conservation agriculture, irrigation and adjusting technology will bring more benefits for food security. In addition, some other adaptations, like strengthening the monitoring and warning of climate change, enhancing climatic forecasting, planning crop growth and manage measures using climatic information, adjusting crop allocation, playing advantages of local and international organizations, can also improve the adaptation ability of African agriculture to climate change. The uncertainties, including data, method, results, the indirectly effects of climate change and the lacking of integrated researches, were also discussed. Finally, the future work in this issue was presented. This study will help people to better understand the responses and adaptations of African agriculture to climate change, to better solve food insecurity and to reduce poverty. In addition, it can also provide effective information for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change in China.

Key words: Africa , climate change , agricultural production , response , adaptation , food security

SHI Wen-Jiao, TAO Fu-Lu. Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Africa: A Review of Impacts and Adaptations[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2014, 47(16): 3157-3166.

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