Abstract:

【Objective】 The objective of this study was to predict regional wheat productivity, which would lay a foundation for quantitative evaluating agricultural productivity and precision management. 【Method】 Considering the approaches related to scaling-up the crop model from plot to region level, a regional wheat model was developed by integrating the WheatGrow model with GIS. To address the spatial variability, grid-based data as model input were generated in advance by interpolation and overlaying with the aid of GIS. When all the necessary input data were available, the target region was partitioned into smaller and relatively homogeneous spatial grids, and crop yields were simulated with WheatGrow for each grid cell. The regional wheat productivity of Jiangsu Province in 2000 was simulated. 【Result】 The distribution of wheat yield that simulated by the regional wheat model based on grid input data, was coincident with statistic data. The mean RMSE of wheat yield between simulated result and statistics was 496.48 kg?hm-2. 【Conclusion】 The results indicated that the GIS based regional wheat model has a good performance in predicting regional wheat productivity.

Key words: wheat, simulation model, GIS, productivity