东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价模型研究

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2014.21.011

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】 Agricultural production is often threatened by several meteorological disasters. Presently, the risk assessment of agro-meteorological disasters often focuses on the influence of single meteorological disaster on disaster-affected body, not exactly reflecting the comprehensive risks faced by agriculture under real meteorological conditions. Meteorological disasters occurred at different crop growth stages have different influences on the final crop yield. In this paper, maize in Northeast China is used as an example to study risk assessment method and technology aiming at meteorological disasters at different crop growth stages. 【Method】 The whole growth period of maize in Northeast China was divided into four growth stages, namely sowing to seven-leaf, seven-leaf to tasseling, tasseling to milky ripening and milky ripening to maturation, and chilling, drought and flood are regarded as the three main meteorological disasters. Then with data on maize development record, meteorology, soil, crop sown area and yield, etc., and in accordance with the theory of natural disaster risk, the formation mechanism of agro-meteorological disaster risk and the “Four Elements” causing natural disaster risk, namely the natural disaster risk in certain area is caused by four factors, including hazard of the natural disaster, exposure and vulnerability of the disaster-affected body and the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of human beings, the four elements for Northeast China’s maize of each growth stage were comprehensively analyzed, and risk assessment indices were selected thereby. Multi-indexes method for environment causing the disaster was adopted to select indices on meteorology, crops, physical geography, etc. in order to fully reflect hazard of the main meteorological disasters of each growth stage; assessment indices were selected according to the connotation of exposure and vulnerability of disaster-affected body; based on the relative lag situation of disaster prevention and mitigation, variation coefficient of yield was used to comprehensively reveal the preventing and mitigating capability, and a fairly complete index system of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment was developed. Owing to multiple and complicated factors causing agro-meteorological disasters and the fuzziness and uncertainty of such indices, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to judge the weights of “Four Elements” and the hazard factors for each growth stage. The main meteorological disasters risk assessment model for each growth stage was established using natural disasters risk index method. The main meteorological disasters hazard assessment model was built by adopting synthetic weighted mark method, and the weight coefficients were determined by the ratio of the frequency of the three main meteorological disasters in each growth stage, reflecting the relative seriousness of the main meteorological disasters. 【Result】Based on the risk assessment of the main meteorological disasters in each growth stage, the model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment of the whole growth period was established using synthetic weighted mark method, and the weight coefficients of risk indices for each growth stage were determined according to correlation relationship between yield reduction rate and the main meteorological disasters risk indices. A fairly complete index system of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment based on the crop growth stages was established, the models of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment and of hazard assessment for each growth stage were developed, and the model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment for the whole crop growth period was also constructed. Multiple agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment technology system based on Northeast China’s maize growth stages was established basically. 【Conclusion】The analysis of hazard indices and yield reduction rate in the key development stage of the research stations in the typical widespread disaster years and of the representative stations in the typical disastrous years in Northeast China showed that the main meteorological disasters hazard indices were well selected.

Key words: maize in Northeast China, chilling damage, drought, flood, risk assessment

GAO Xiao-rong, WANG Chun-yi, ZHANG Ji-quan, WEN Xu. A Risk Assessment System of the Main Meteorological Disasters for Maize in Northeast China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2014, 47(21): 4257-4268.

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