东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价模型研究

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2014.21.011

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】 Agricultural production is often threatened by several meteorological disasters. Presently, the risk assessment of agro-meteorological disasters often focuses on the influence of single meteorological disaster on disaster-affected body, not exactly reflecting the comprehensive risks faced by agriculture under real meteorological conditions. Meteorological disasters occurred at different crop growth stages have different influences on the final crop yield. In this paper, maize in Northeast China is used as an example to study risk assessment method and technology aiming at meteorological disasters at different crop growth stages. 【Method】 The whole growth period of maize in Northeast China was divided into four growth stages, namely sowing to seven-leaf, seven-leaf to tasseling, tasseling to milky ripening and milky ripening to maturation, and chilling, drought and flood are regarded as the three main meteorological disasters. Then with data on maize development record, meteorology, soil, crop sown area and yield, etc., and in accordance with the theory of natural disaster risk, the formation mechanism of agro-meteorological disaster risk and the “Four Elements” causing natural disaster risk, namely the natural disaster risk in certain area is caused by four factors, including hazard of the natural disaster, exposure and vulnerability of the disaster-affected body and the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of human beings, the four elements for Northeast China’s maize of each growth stage were comprehensively analyzed, and risk assessment indices were selected thereby. Multi-indexes method for environment causing the disaster was adopted to select indices on meteorology, crops, physical geography, etc. in order to fully reflect hazard of the main meteorological disasters of each growth stage; assessment indices were selected according to the connotation of exposure and vulnerability of disaster-affected body; based on the relative lag situation of disaster prevention and mitigation, variation coefficient of yield was used to comprehensively reveal the preventing and mitigating capability, and a fairly complete index system of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment was developed. Owing to multiple and complicated factors causing agro-meteorological disasters and the fuzziness and uncertainty of such indices, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to judge the weights of “Four Elements” and the hazard factors for each growth stage. The main meteorological disasters risk assessment model for each growth stage was established using natural disasters risk index method. The main meteorological disasters hazard assessment model was built by adopting synthetic weighted mark method, and the weight coefficients were determined by the ratio of the frequency of the three main meteorological disasters in each growth stage, reflecting the relative seriousness of the main meteorological disasters. 【Result】Based on the risk assessment of the main meteorological disasters in each growth stage, the model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment of the whole growth period was established using synthetic weighted mark method, and the weight coefficients of risk indices for each growth stage were determined according to correlation relationship between yield reduction rate and the main meteorological disasters risk indices. A fairly complete index system of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment based on the crop growth stages was established, the models of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment and of hazard assessment for each growth stage were developed, and the model of the main meteorological disasters risk assessment for the whole crop growth period was also constructed. Multiple agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment technology system based on Northeast China’s maize growth stages was established basically. 【Conclusion】The analysis of hazard indices and yield reduction rate in the key development stage of the research stations in the typical widespread disaster years and of the representative stations in the typical disastrous years in Northeast China showed that the main meteorological disasters hazard indices were well selected.

Key words: maize in Northeast China, chilling damage, drought, flood, risk assessment

GAO Xiao-rong, WANG Chun-yi, ZHANG Ji-quan, WEN Xu. A Risk Assessment System of the Main Meteorological Disasters for Maize in Northeast China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2014, 47(21): 4257-4268.

References

[1] 王春乙, 毛飞. 东北地区低温冷害的分布特征//王春乙, 郭建平. 农作物低温冷害综合防御技术研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999: 9-15.

Wang C Y, Mao F. Distribution of chilling damage in Northeast China//Wang C Y, Guo J P. Study on Comprehensive Defending Technique to Chilling Damage. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1999: 9-15. (in Chinese)

[2] 马树庆, 刘玉英, 王琪. 玉米低温冷害动态评估和预测方法. 应用生态学报, 2006, 17(10): 1905-1910.

Ma S Q, Liu Y Y, Wang Q. Dynamic prediction and evaluation method of maize chilling damage. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2006, 17(10): 1905-1910. (in Chinese)

[3] 李祎君, 王春乙. 东北地区玉米低温冷害综合指标研究. 自然灾害学报, 2007, 16(6): 15-20.

Li Y J, Wang C Y. Research on comprehensive index of chilling damage to corn in Northeast China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2007, 16(6): 15-20. (in Chinese)

[4] 高晓容, 王春乙, 张继权. 气候变暖对东北玉米低温冷害分布规律的影响. 生态学报, 2012, 32(7): 2110-2118.

Gao X R, Wang C Y, Zhang J Q. The impacts of global climatic change on chilling damage distributions of maize in Northeast China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2012, 32(7): 2110-2118. (in Chinese)

[5] 高晓容, 王春乙, 张继权. 东北玉米低温冷害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律. 灾害学, 2012, 27(4): 65-70.

Gao X R, Wang C Y, Zhang J Q. Spatial-temporal distribution and multiple-temporal scale variation laws of chilling damage of maize in Northeast China. Journal of Catastrophology, 2012, 27(4): 65-70. (in Chinese)

[6] 周琳. 东北气候. 北京: 气象出版社, 1991: 43-52.

Zhou L. Climate in Northeast China. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1991: 43-52. (in Chinese)

[7] 高晓容, 王春乙, 张继权, 薛绪掌. 近50年东北玉米生育阶段需水量及旱涝时空变化.农业工程学报, 2012, 28(12): 101-109.

Gao X R, Wang C Y, Zhang J Q, Xue X Z. Crop water requirement and temporal-spatial variation of drought and flood disaster during growth stages for maize in Northeast during past 50 years. Transaction of the CSAE, 2012, 28(12): 101-109. (in Chinese)

[8] 薛昌颖, 霍治国, 李世奎, 叶彩玲. 华北北部冬小麦干旱和产量灾损的风险评估. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(1): 131-139.

Xue C Y, Huo Z G, Li S K, Ye C L. Risk assessment of drought and yield losses of winter wheat in the northern part of North China.Journal of Natural Disasters, 2003, 12(1): 131-139. (in Chinese)

[9] 薛昌颖, 霍治国, 李世奎, 卢志光, 毛飞, 庄立伟, 王素艳. 灌溉降低华北冬小麦干旱减产的风险评估研究. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(3): 131-136.

Xue C Y, Huo Z G, Li S K, Lu Z G, Mao F, Zhuang L W, Wang S Y. Action of irrigation on decreasing yield reduction due to drought: a risk assessment of winter wheat in North China Plain. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2003, 12(3): 131-136. (in Chinese)

[10] 袭祝香, 马树庆, 王琪. 东北区低温冷害风险评估及区划. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(2): 98-102.

Xi Z X, Ma S Q, Wang Q. Risk evaluation and zonation of the low temperature and cold damage in Northeast China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2003, 12(2): 98-102. (in Chinese)

[11] 王素艳, 霍治国, 李世奎, 卢志光, 庄立伟, 侯婷婷. 干旱对北方冬小麦产量影响的风险评估. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(3): 118-125.

Wang S Y, Huo Z G, Li S K, Lu Z G, Zhuang L W, Hou T T. Risk assessment of drought effect on yield of winter wheat in Northern China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2003, 12(3): 118-125. (in Chinese)

[12] 马树庆, 袭祝香, 王琪. 中国东北地区玉米低温冷害风险评估研究. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(3): 137-141.

Ma S Q, Xi Z X, Wang Q. Risk evaluation of cold damage to corn in Northeast China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2003, 12(3): 137-141. (in Chinese)

[13] 杜尧东, 毛慧勤, 刘锦銮. 华南地区寒害概率分布模型研究. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(2): 103-107.

Du Y D, Mao H Q, Liu J L. Study on probability distribution models of cold damage in South China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2003, 12(2): 103-107. (in Chinese)

[14] 于飞, 谷晓平, 罗宇翔, 郑小波. 贵州农业气象灾害综合风险评价与区划. 中国农业气象, 2009, 30(2): 267-270.

Yu F, Gu X P, Luo Y X, Zheng X B. Comprehensive risk assessment and demarcation of agro-meteorological disasters in Guizhou Province. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2009, 30(2): 267-270. (in Chinese)

[15] 李娜, 霍治国, 贺楠, 肖晶晶, 温泉沛. 华南地区香蕉、荔枝寒害的气候风险区划. 应用生态学报, 2010, 21(5): 1244-1251.

Li N, Huo Z G, He N, Xiao J J, Wen Q P. Climatic risk zoning for banana and litchi’s chilling injury in South China. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2010, 21(5): 1244-1251. (in Chinese)

[16] Hao L,Zhang X Y, Liu S D. Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in county unit. Natual Hazards, 2012, 61(2): 785.

[17] 陈晓艺, 马晓群, 孙秀邦. 安徽省冬小麦发育期农业干旱发生风险分析. 中国农业气象, 2008, 29(4): 472-476.

Chen X Y, Ma X Q, Sun X B. Risk analysis of agricultural drought for winter wheat during growing period in Anhui Province. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2008, 29(4): 472-476. (in Chinese)

[18] Wilhelmi O V, Wilhite D A. Assessing vulnerability to agricultural drought: A Nebraska case study. Natural Hazards, 2002, 25(1): 37-58.

[19] 刘兰芳, 刘盛和, 刘沛林, 田亚平. 湖南省农业旱灾脆弱性综合分析与定量评价. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(4): 78-83.

Liu L F, Liu S H, Liu P L, Tian Y P. Synthetic analysis and quantitative estimation of the agricultural vulnerability to drought disaster in Hunan Province. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2002, 11(4): 78-83. (in Chinese)

[20] Simelton E, Fraser E D G, Termansen M, Forster P M, Dougill A J. Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: an empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961-2001). Environmental Science &Policy, 2009, 12: 438-452.

[21] Fraser E D G, Termansen M, Sun N, Guan D B, Simelton E, Dodds P, Feng K S, Yu Y. Quantifying socioeconomic characteristics of drought-sensitive regions: Evidence from Chinese provincial agricultural data. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 2008, 340: 679-688.

[22] Ngigi S N, Savenije H H G, Rockstrom J, Gachene C K. Hydro-economic evaluation of rainwater harvesting and management technologies: farmers’ investment options and risks in semi-arid Laikipia district of Kenya. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 2005, 30: 772-782.

[23] Zhang J Q. Risk assessment of drought disaster in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2004, 102(2): 133-153.

[24] Shahid S, Behrawan H. Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh. Natural Hazards, 2008, 46: 391-413.

[25] Zhang D, Wang G L, Zhou H C. Assessment on agricultural drought risk based on Variable Fuzzy Sets Model. Chinese Geographical Science, 2011, 21(2): 167-175.

[26] 张建平. 基于作物模型的农业气象灾害对东北华北作物产量影响评估[D]. 北京: 中国农业大学, 2010: 36-37.

Zhang J P. Impact evaluation of agro-meteorological hazard to yields of crops in Northeast China and North China based on crop growth model [D]. Beijing: China Agricultural University, 2010: 36-37. (in Chinese)

[27] 张倩. 长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响评估[D]. 北京: 中国气象科学研究院, 2010: 47-48.

Zhang Q. Study on the impact assessment of high temperature damage for rice in the Lower and Middle Reaches of Yangtze River [D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 2010: 47-48. (in Chinese)

[28] Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, Smith M. Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Rome: FAO Irrigation and Drainage paper 56, 1998: 95-97.

[29] 钟秀丽, 王道龙, 李玉中, 赵鹏, 阎旭宇, 孙忠富. 黄淮麦区冬小麦拔节期的时空变化研究. 中国生态农业学报, 2007, 15(2): 22-25.

Zhong X L, Wang D L, Li Y Z, Zhao P, Yan X Y, Sun Z F. Temporal-spatial variation of elongating time of wheat in Huang-Huai wheat production area. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2007, 15(2): 22-25. (in Chinese)

[30] 吴东丽. 华北地区冬小麦干旱风险评估研究[D]. 北京: 国家气候中心, 2009: 20-21.

Wu D L. Study on the risk assessment of drought for the winter wheat in North China [D]. Beijing: National Climate Centre, 2009: 20-21. (in Chinese)

[31] 葛全胜, 邹铭, 郑景云. 中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究. 北京: 科学出版社, 2008: 136-137, 173-176.

Ge Q S, Zou M, Zheng J Y. Integrated Assessment of Natural Disaster Risks in China. Beijing: Science Press, 2008: 136-137, 173-176. (in Chinese)

[32] United Nations Development Programme. Reducing Disaster Risk: a Challenge for Development. John S Swift Co., USA, 2004: 2-4.

[33] Dilley M, Chen R S, Deichmann U, Lerner-Lam A L, Arnold M, Agwe J, Buys P, Kjekstad O, Lyon B, Yetman G. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis-Synthesis Report. USA: Columbia University, 2005: 4-7.

[34] 张继权, 冈田宪夫, 多多纳裕一. 综合自然灾害风险管理—全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择. 自然灾害学报, 2006, 15(1): 29-37.

Zhang J Q, Okada N, Tatano H I. Integrated natural disaster risk management: comprehensive and integrated model and Chinese strategy choice. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2006, 15(1): 29-37. (in Chinese)

[35] 张继权, 李宁. 主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用. 北京: 北京师范大学出版社, 2007: 32-34, 492-505.

Zhang J Q, Li N. Quantitative Methods and Applications of Risk Assessment and Management on Main Meteorological Disasters. Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press, 2007: 32-34, 492-505. (in Chinese)

[36] 任义方. 农业气象指数保险方法研究—以河南冬小麦干旱为例[D]. 北京: 中国气象科学研究院, 2011: 36-37.

Ren Y F. Study on the agricultural index insurance method- taking Henan winter wheat drought as example [D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 2011: 36-37. (in Chinese)

[37] 刘锦銮, 杜尧东, 毛慧勤. 华南地区荔枝寒害风险分析与区划. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(3): 126-130.

Liu J L, Du Y D, Mao H Q. Risk analysis and zonation of cold damage to litchi in South China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2003, 12(3): 126-130. (in Chinese)

[38] 植石群, 刘锦銮, 杜尧东, 刘爱君. 广东省香蕉寒害风险分析. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(2): 113-116.

Zhi S Q, Liu J L, Du Y D, Liu A J. Risk analysis of cold damage to banana in Guangdong Province. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2003, 12(2): 113-116. (in Chinese)

[39] 马树庆, 王琪, 王春乙, 霍治国. 东北地区玉米低温冷害气候和经济损失风险分区. 地理研究, 2008, 27(5): 1169-1177.

Ma S Q, Wang Q, Wang C Y, Huo Z G. The risk division on climate and economic loss of maize chilling damage in Northeast China. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(5): 1169-1177. (in Chinese)

[40] 马树庆, 王琪, 王春乙, 霍治国. 东北地区水稻冷害气候风险度和经济脆弱度及其分区研究. 地理研究, 2011, 30(5): 931-938.

Ma S Q, Wang Q, Wang C Y, Huo Z G. Climate risk and economy vulnerability of rice chilling damage and division in Northeast China. Geographical Research, 2011, 30(5): 931-938. (in Chinese)

[41] 梁书民. 中国雨养农业区旱灾风险综合评价研究. 干旱区资源与环境, 2011, 25(7): 39-44.

Liang S M. Comprehensive evaluation on the drought risk of rain-fed agriculture in China based on GIS. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2011, 25(7): 39-44. (in Chinese)

[42] 胡雪琼, 吉文娟, 张茂松, 邹丽云. 云南省冬小麦干旱灾损风险区划. 大气科学学报, 2011, 34(3): 356-362.

Hu X Q, Ji W J, Zhang M S, Zou L Y. Drought risk regionalization for winter wheat in Yunnan Province. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 34(3): 356-362. (in Chinese)

[43] 刘小艳. 陕西省干旱灾害风险评估与区划[D]. 西安: 陕西师范大学, 2010: 17-18.

Liu X Y.Risk assessment and zoning of drought in Shaanxi Province [D]. Xi’an: Shaanxi Normal University, 2010: 17-18. (in Chinese)

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed

Comments

Recommended 0

No Suggested Reading articles found!

A Risk Assessment System of the Main Meteorological Disasters for Maize in Northeast China

RichHTML

PDF

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	YANG Fan, HU XiaoQian, WANG Yu, YUE CaiXia, ZHANG Rui, TIAN Wen, WANG TingTing, LI Yang, JI MeiQuan, ZHANG LiHui, AN KeJing. Optimization of Detection Conditions for Aerobic Spore-Forming Bacillus in Honey and Analysis of Its Contamination Characteristics [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(4): 887-899.
[2]	SHEN LiQiong, HE LinLi, LIU Ni, LU JunXing, ZHU Bo, ZHANG Tao. Effects of Potassium Levels on Waterlogging Resistance and Endogenous Hormone Balance of Rapeseed During Seedling Stage [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(3): 528-542.
[3]	WANG WenJuan, SHI ShangLi, KANG WenJuan, DU YuanYuan, YIN Chen. The Physiological Response of Longzhong Alfalfa to Exogenous Spermine Under Drought Stress [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(4): 676-691.
[4]	MU YingTong, LU JingShi, ZHANG YuTong, SHI FengLing. Identification of Key Drought-Responsive Genes in Upright Medicago ruthenica Sojak cv. Zhilixing Based on Transcriptome Sequencing and WGCNA [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(21): 4528-4543.
[5]	CHEN YongXian, CHEN RuiJiang, DU YiZhi, ZHU JunJie, CHEN WanXia, ZHAO ZiHan, WANG JiChun, DU Kang, ZHANG Kai. Screening and Identification of Drought-Tolerant Sweet Potato Germplasm Resources [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(2): 214-237.
[6]	BAO MingFang, QIN Yan, CHEN CaiJin, ZHANG ShangPei, ZHANG GuoHui, SHA XiaoDi. Evaluation of 111 Alfalfa Germplasm Resources for Seedling Phenotypic Drought Tolerance Characterization [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(19): 3825-3836.
[7]	MIAO TongTong, WANG LongJin, YANG RuiTing, DAI ChengCheng, LIU ShiChao, LI Nan, LI DongXiao-. Exogenous Melatonin Enhances Drought Resistance of Wheat Seedlings by Regulating Abscisic Acid and Hydrogen Peroxide Content [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(17): 3400-3417.
[8]	LIU WenLong, CHANG YiFang, LI WenYu, SUN LiJuan, ZHENG ChangYing. Effects of Drought Stress During the Pupal Stage on Mating Behavior and Sensitivity to Lufenuron in Bradysia odoriphaga [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(14): 2793-2804.
[9]	CHEN CaiJin, MA Lin, BAO MingFang, ZHANG GuoHui, JIANG QingXue, YANG TianHui, WANG Chuan, WANG XiaoChun, GAO Ting, WANG XueMin, LIU WenHui. Identification and Evaluation of Drought Resistance for 111 Germplasm Resources of Alfalfa During Germination Stage [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(10): 1896-1907.
[10]	ZHANG YuZhou, WANG YiZhao, GAO RuXi, LIU YiFan. Research Progress on Root System Architecture and Drought Resistance in Wheat [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(9): 1633-1645.
[11]	ZHOU Quan, LU QiuMei, ZHAO ZhangChen, WU ChenRan, FU XiaoGe, ZHAO YuJiao, HAN Yong, LIN HuaiLong, CHEN WeiLin, MOU LiMing, LI XingMao, WANG ChangHai, HU YinGang, CHEN Liang. Identification of Drought Resistance of 244 Spring Wheat Varieties at Seedling Stage [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(9): 1646-1657.
[12]	ZHANG Ying, SHI TingRui, CAO Rui, PAN WenQiu, SONG WeiNing, WANG Li, NIE XiaoJun. Genome-Wide Association Study of Drought Tolerance at Seedling Stage in ICARDA-Introduced Wheat [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(9): 1658-1673.
[13]	YAN Wen, JIN XiuLiang, LI Long, XU ZiHan, SU Yue, ZHANG YueQiang, JING RuiLian, MAO XinGuo, SUN DaiZhen. Drought Resistance Evaluation of Synthetic Wheat at Grain Filling Using UAV-Based Multi-Source Imagery Data [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(9): 1674-1686.
[14]	NI ShuHui, SHI DongMei, PAN LiDong, YE Qing, WU JunHao. Response of Cultivated-Layer Water-Holding and Drought Resistance Performance and Productivity to Erosion Degree in Purple Soil Sloping Farmland [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(7): 1350-1362.
[15]	GAO ChenXi, HAO LuYang, HU Yue, LI YongXiang, ZHANG DengFeng, LI ChunHui, SONG YanChun, SHI YunSu, WANG TianYu, LI Yu, LIU XuYang. Analysis of Transposable Element Associated Epigenetic Regulation under Drought in Maize [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(6): 1034-1048.