全球气候变化背景下川渝地区再生稻地理分布格局变迁

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.04.005

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】The objective of this study was to simulate and predict the geographical distribution of ratoon rice in Sichuan-Chongqing region under climate change, thereby providing a scientific reference for regional expansion planning, cultivar breeding, and cropping-system formulation of ratoon rice in this area.【Method】Based on the past (1981-2000) 53 and current (2001-2020) 147 distribution points and 6 environmental variables of ratoon rice, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the changes in the planting areas and potential suitable areas, and the dominant environmental variables affecting its distribution were determined.【Result】(1) The accumulated temperature during the safe growth period (Tac), the number of days during the safe growth period (Day), the average temperature in September (Tav₉), and altitude (Alt) were the dominant environmental variables affecting the geographical distribution pattern of ratoon rice. (2) From the past (1981-2000) to the current (2001-2020), the planting areas and potential suitable areas had extended toward the northwest of the basin, with an area expansion of 0.44×10⁴ km²(69.23%) and 3.25×10⁴ km² (60.89%), which located at 28°9'-30°55' N, 103°35'-108°32' E and 28°4'-31°48' N, 103°10'-110°4' E, respectively; the highly suitable area had extended northwest and northeast, mainly located at 28°7'-31°7' N and 103°26'-107°21' E, with a high degree of coupling with the distribution and changes of the planting area. (3) From the current (2001-2020) to the future (2041-2060), the suitable area was projected to expand northwestward under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The northwestern boundary was expected to reach the area south of the central Chengdu to central Guangyuan, with the total suitable area increasing by 3.69%-16.92%. The highly suitable area was projected to extend northwestward to the line connecting Dongpo District of Meishan and Dachuan District of Dazhou, advancing 1.4°N (155.65 km) northward and 0.8°E (88.94 km) westward, with the area increasing by 45.24%-65.18%. Conversely, portions of the highly suitable area in central Yibin (Sichuan) and in Qijiang, Rongchang, and Dazu (Chongqing) were expected to contract by 2.68%-11.90%. The unchanged areas were mainly concentrated in southern Sichuan and western Chongqing regions, accounting for 72.32%-88.10% of the baseline highly suitable area.【Conclusion】Climate change was generally conducive to the expansion of suitable areas for ratoon rice in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. The primary driver was the concurrent increase in accumulated temperature and number of days during the safe growth period. Priority should therefore be given to consolidating the traditional advantageous areas in southern Sichuan and western Chongqing. Expansion should proceed incrementally into the new suitable areas, notably northeastern Leshan, western and eastern Ziyang, southern Suining, southern Nanchong, southwestern Dazhou in Sichuan, as well as the most of Tongnan and northern Tongliang in Chongqing. Pilot cultivation should be encouraged in emerging potential areas, such as eastern Chengdu, Deyang, and southern Mianyang. A phased, region-specific strategy was recommended to ensure the sustainable and stable development of ratoon rice production. Concurrently, intensified efforts were needed to develop and deploy monitoring, early-warning, and risk-mitigation technologies against meteorological disasters under continued global warming.

Key words: ratoon rice, climate change, distribution change, MaxEnt model, plant area, suitable areas

LUO Wei, YU Hong, YUAN LiXin, WANG LingLing, ZHAO JinPeng, YIN Wei, WANG MingTian, WANG RuLin. Change of Geographic Distributions of Ratoon Rice in Sichuan- Chongqing Under Global Climate Change[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(4): 765-780.

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代码Code	环境变量 Environmental variable	生物学意义 Biological significance
Tac	安全生长期积温 Safe growth period accumulated temperature (℃·d)	表征中稻安全播种（稳定通过10 ℃初日）到再生稻安全齐穗（稳定通过22 ℃终日）所需的热量 Characterize the amount of heat required for safe sowing of middle-season rice (stable through ≥10 ℃ on the first day) to safe panicle filling of ratoon rice (stable through ≥22 ℃ all day long)
Day	安全生长期天数 Safe growth period days (d)	表征中稻安全播种（稳定通过10 ℃初日）到再生稻安全齐穗（稳定通过22 ℃终日）所需的天数 Characterize the number of days required for safe sowing of middle-season rice (stable through ≥10 ℃ on the first day) to safe panicle filling of ratoon rice (stable through ≥22 ℃ all day long)
K₈	8月水热系数 Hydrothermal coefficient in August	反映再生稻发苗期高温低湿环境对发苗数的胁迫 Reflecting the stress of high temperature and low humidity environment on the number of seedlings during the seedling stage of ratoon rice
Tav₉	9月平均气温 Average temperature in September (℃)	表征再生稻抽穗扬花期温度对结实率的限制 The limitation of temperature in heading and flowering period of ratoon rice on seed setting rate
Prec_{3_9}	3—9月降水量 Precipitation from March to September (mm)	反映“中稻+再生稻”完成生育过程的水分供应量 The water supply of "medium rice + ratoon rice" during the growth process
Alt	海拔 Altitude (m)	表征不同海拔下综合环境因素对再生稻生长的影响 Effects of comprehensive environmental factors on the growth of ratoon rice at different altitudes

时期 Period	种植区 Plant area	潜在适宜区 Potential suitable area
时期 Period	种植区 Plant area	总适宜区 Total suitable	高适宜区 Highly suitable	中适宜区 Moderately suitable	低适宜区 Lowly suitable
过去 Past	0.26	2.02	0.33	0.71	0.98
当前 Current	0.44	3.25	0.84	1.12	1.29

时期 Period	气候情景 Climate type	潜在适宜区 Potential suitable area
时期 Period	气候情景 Climate type	总适宜区 Total suitable	高适宜区 Highly suitable	中适宜区 Moderately suitable	低适宜区 Lowly suitable
未来 Future	SSP245	3.37	1.12	0.70	1.56
未来 Future	SSP585	3.80	1.54	0.98	1.27

时期 Period	高适宜区面积变化 Changes in the area of high suitability zones
时期 Period	总变化 Total	扩张 Expansion	不变 Unchange	缩减 Contraction
过去—当前 Past-current	0.51（154.55%）	0.52（157.57%）	0.32（96.96%）	0.01（3.03%）
当前—SSP245 Current-SSP245	0.28（33.33%）	0.38（45.24%）	0.74（88.10%）	0.10（11.91%）
当前—SSP585 Current-SSP585	0.70（62.50%）	0.73（65.18%）	0.81（72.32%）	0.03（2.68%）

Change of Geographic Distributions of Ratoon Rice in Sichuan- Chongqing Under Global Climate Change

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