Abstract: 【Objective】Strawberry grey mould is an important fungus disease worldwide. The objectives of this study are to explore the development of Botrytis cinerea in greenhouse in Hubei Province, analyze the relationship between different epidemic factors and disease rates of grey mould. Significant correlation factors were selected and used to build a model, and to provide a theoretical foundation for prevention and control of strawberry grey mould in greenhouse in Hubei Province. 【Method】 From 2013 to 2015, three representative strawberry greenhouse in strawberry planting base of Hubei Province Academy of Agricultural Sciences were selected in this study. A method of five sampling points was used for collecting leaves, flowers and fruits, and infection rates of B. cinerea on plant tissues were detected by specific PCR and moisture culture methods. The data of two greenhouses were selected to analyze the relationships between disease rate of strawberry fruits and disease rates of flowers and leaves, temperature, relative humidity, infection rates of fruits, flowers and leaves by Pearson correlation analysis. Disease rates of leaves (x₂), temperature (x₃), infection rates of fruits (x₅) were significantly related to the incidence of disease on strawberry fruit and were used as the dependent variables (y). And the factor x₂, x₃ or x₅ was used as independent variable to multiple linear regression equation by linear regression method to establish the regression models for the greenhouse variables (x₂,x₃, x₅) and strawberry fruit incidence (y), respectively. The predicted values of strawberry fruit incidence were calculated by the regression model, and the predicted values were compared with the actual values in the third greenhouse. 【Result】In 2013-2015, the changes of infection rates of flowers, leaves and fruits were significantly different. Infection rates of flowers and fruits were relatively high and the infection rates were 0-53.33% and 0-86.00%, respectively. The beginning time of disease on different tissues were not the same. The strawberry grey mould was found on fruits, flowers and leaves from early December, mid-late December and early January or February, separately. The occurrences of disease on flowers and leaves were light and stable, and the fruit disease gradually increased after March with the highest disease rate of 80.07%. The disease rate of strawberry leaves, temperature and fruit infection rate were significantly correlated with disease rate of fruit (P＜0.01). Regression models for strawberry fruit incidence rate and different epidemic factors was established as y=0.55x₅+5.76 (R²=0.645, P＜0.01) (model 1), y=8.18x₂+9.25 (R²=0.498, P＜0.01) (model 2) and y=2.49x₃-13.62 (R²=0.446, P＜0.01) (model 3), respectively. The predicted values and the actual values were analyzed by regression analysis. The results showed that the correlation between the actual fruit incidence and the predicted incidence in model 1 was the best. 【Conclusion】 In strawberry greenhouses in Hubei Province, fruit disease rate was affected significantly by the fruit infection rate, disease rate of leaf, and temperature. Removal of diseased tissues and reduction of disease infection on fruits are useful methods for control of grey mould.

Key words: Botrytis cinerea, disease infection rate, disease incidence, correlation