中国水稻生产的时空动态分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.17.003

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】The trajectories of center of gravity rice acreage and production in China’s north and south regions and different rice systems were drawn respectively, the causes are analyzed, and the main factors that affect the total rice production was found at present stage.【Method】Using gravity fitting model, the temporal-spatial dynamic of rice production in China was analyzed. The main factors affecting China’s total rice production at present were found with sensitivity analysis.【Result】 In addition to the 1960s and 1970s center of gravity of rice sown acreage and production in China had skewed toward the southeast and eastern, it general moved toward the northeast direction since the founding of China. In 1979-2009, the center of gravity of rice in north moved quickly to the Songliao Basin of northeast of China. Center of gravity of middle-season rice and single cropping later rice moved firstly toward northeast then toward southeast, and its direction of movement was consistent with the order of the change of southern rice system, i.e. “double cropping rice changes to single cropping rice” from north to south. Center of gravity of early-season rice and double-season later rice both moved toward southwest. The percentage of single cropping rice was increased significantly in south China; the phenomenon “change double rice to single one” was obvious, which was the main reason leading to the decline of China’s rice acreage. Combined with sensitivity analysis, we can see that the sown acreage becomes the key factor most possibly affecting rice production stability.【Conclusion】 Regulation of market mechanism and technological progress were the two main factors currently affecting the temporal-spatial dynamic changes of rice in China. Under the precondition of keeping on the guidance of the market, from the perspective of food security, according to national conditions, especially to regulate early-season rice and double-season late rice that have low costs profit margins and downward trend of acreage, at same time taking into account total rice acreage, to prevent it from large fluctuation, to improve the yield of rice constantly, is the key to ensure steady increase of China rice output at this stage.

Key words: rice, temporal-spatial dynamic, gravity fitting model, sensitivity analysis, tornado diagram

CHENG Yong-Xiang, WANG Xiu-Zhen, GUO Jian-Ping, ZHAO Yan-Xia, HUANG Jing-Feng. The Temporal-Spatial Dynamic Analysis of China Rice Production[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(17): 3473-3485.

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