Abstract: 【OBJECTIVE】A model for predicting the leaf area of single flower cut chrysanthemum was developed for optimising greenhouse single flower cut chrysanthemum production management.【METHOD】Based on the effects of temperature and radiation on chrysanthemum leaf emerging and elongation, experiments with different varieties and planting dates were carried out in greenhouses to collect data to develop and validate the model.【RESULTS】The predicted results agreed well with the observed ones. The determination coefficient (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) between the predicted and the measured leaf area index (LAI) based on the 1:1 line are 0.94 and 0.75, respectively. Compared to the models based on growth degree days (GDD) and specific leaf area (SLA), the prediction accuracy of the model developed in this study is 48.2% and 84.6% higher, respectively.【CONCLUSION】From the results obtained in this study, it can be concluded that the model developed in this study can give satisfactory prediction of the leaf area index of greenhouse single flower cut chrysanthemum and can be used for the prediction of biomass production and production management of single flower cut chrysanthemum.

Key words: Cut chrysanthemum, leaf area index, Physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR, Prediction model