青藏高原不同积温条件下春小麦光温生产潜力及其对气候变化的响应

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2022.11.005

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 The aim of this study was to assess accurately the potential yield of spring wheat and its responses to climate change, which was of great significance to exploit the agricultural resources and to ensure the food security in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). 【Method】 This paper firstly calibrated the WOFOST model based on published research data, and then simulated the photo-temperature potential yield (Yp) of spring wheat at 113 stations in the QTP based on the model and the daily meteorological data during 1958 to 2017. Further, the response of spring wheat potential yield to climate change in three classified accumulated temperature ranges was analyzed by using Theil-Sen Median slope (Sen’s slope), Pearson’s correlation and stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) methods. 【Result】 During 1958 to 2017, the annual average potential yield at stations throughout the QTP was between 3.20 and 8.68 t·hm^-2. The potential yield was relatively high in regions with the accumulated temperature range of 1 600-3 400℃·d, including the Yijiang Lianghe Region, the Hehuang River Valley and the northern parts of Ganzi, showing a slightly increase trend. In the regions with accumulated temperature below 1 600℃·d and above 3 400℃·d, the potential yield was relatively low and showed a significantly increase and decrease trend, respectively (P<0.01). For the whole QTP, the daily average temperature (Tave), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) in the growing season of spring wheat showed significantly increase trends (P<0.01), and the increase rate of Tmin was higher than that of Tave and Tmax, while temperature diurnal range (Td) and solar radiation (Ra) decreased at rates of 0.08℃ and 8.96 MJ·m^-2 per decade, respectively. The change trends of climatic factors differed obviously among the three accumulated temperature ranges: with increase of accumulated temperature, the increase rates of Tmax, Tmin and Tave and the decrease rate of Td were reduced, while the decrease rate of Ra was increased. There was a significantly positive correlation between changes of Ra and Yp in the QTP and in the three accumulated temperature ranges (P<0.01), but the influence of Tave and Tmax became weak with the increase of accumulated temperature. Furthermore, the influence of Tmin changed from positive to negative, and both of the positive effects of Td and Ra increased firstly and then decreased. At the stations with accumulated temperature below 1 600℃·d, Tave was the critical factor determining potential yield of spring wheat, and its increase of 1℃ could result in 885.71 kg·hm^-2 increase in the Yp (P<0.01). At stations with accumulated temperature range of 1 600-3 400℃·d, Ra played a decisive role, i.e., the potential yield of spring wheat increased by 3.42 kg·hm^-2 for increase of 1 MJ·m^-2 (P<0.01). At stations with accumulated temperature above 3 400℃·d, the potential yield of spring wheat decreased by 398.65 kg·hm^-2 and increased by 3.07 kg·hm^-2 when Tmin and Ra increased by 1℃ and 1 MJ·m^-2 (P<0.01), respectively. 【Conclusion】 The potential yield of spring wheat and its responses to radiation and temperature changes showed a great difference in different ranges of accumulated temperature. The results revealed the potential yield level of spring wheat and identified its response to climate changes, and thus provided supports to exploit the yield increase potential of spring wheat in different regions of the QTP.

Key words: spring wheat, potential yield, WOFOST, climate warming, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

ZHANG ZeMin,LÜ ChangHe. Photo-Temperature Potential Yield of Spring Wheat at Different Accumulated Temperature Ranges and Its Response to Climate Change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2022, 55(11): 2135-2149.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Table 1

Data set used to validate WOFOST model parameters and simulation results"

气象台站 Meteorological site	海拔 Altitude (m)	播种期 Sowing date (M-D)	出苗期 Emergence date (M-D)	生育期 Growing duration (d)	种植密度 Sowing density	灌溉期 Irrigation date	施肥 Fertilization	试验站产量 Experimental yield (kg·hm^-2)	年份 Year	参考文献 Reference
西宁 Xining	3205	03-16— 04-03	04-10— 04-16	114— 125	每亩35万粒 3.5×10⁵ seeds per mu	全生育期灌溉4次 Irrigate 4 times during the whole growth period	春播时每公顷施有机肥30 m³,磷酸二铵150 kg,尿素112.5 kg,苗期施尿素112.5 kg Apply 30 cubic meters of organic fertilizer, 150 kg diammonium phosphate, 112.5 kg urea per hectare when spring sowing, and 112.5 kg urea at seedling stage	6944 - 8750	1998	[37]
白朗 Bailang	3836	04-15	04-26— 04-27	127— 139	每亩约31万粒 3.1×10⁵seeds per mu	播前灌足底熵水,5月30日和6月14日各灌水一次 Irrigate sufficiently before sowing, and twice on 30th May and 14th June	播前每亩底肥17.5 kg二铵,追肥2.5 kg二铵 Apply 17.5 kg diammonium per mu as base fertilizer before sowing, and topdressing 2.5 kg diammonium per mu	5330 - 8416	2005	[38]
互助 Huzhu	2480	03-26— 04-10	04-14	149— 158	每亩约25万粒; 每亩15-20 kg 2.5×10⁵ seeds per mu; 15-20 kg per mu	4月26日灌溉一次+后期雨水 Irrigate on 26th April and depend on rainfall in the later stages	全生育期每亩施尿素10 kg,磷酸二铵12.5 kg Apply 10 kg urea and 12.5 kg diammonium phosphate per mu during the whole growth period	5670 - 8025	1999, 2003- 2007, 2012- 2014	[39⇓-41]
大通 Datong	2450	03-20— 03-31	04-10	127— 139	每亩约25万粒 2.5×10⁵ seeds per mu	—	—	5565 - 7471	2003- 2007	[41]
格尔木 Geermu	2780	03-10— 04-05	04-17— 05-07	127	—	—	—	—	2000- 2005	[42]
昌都 Changdu	3400	04-13— 04-15	04.25— 05-01	128	—	—	—	—	1978	[43]
诺木洪 Nuomuhong	2790	03-08— 03-28	04-18— 04-23	151	—	—	—	—	1978	[43]
拉萨 Lhasa	3658	03-20— 04-10	04-17— 04-27	128— 138	每亩约22万粒 2.2×10⁵ seeds per mu	全生育期灌溉3次 Irrigate 3 times during the whole growth period	播前每亩施磷酸二铵12.5 kg,有机肥12.5 kg,尿素5 kg做底肥,追肥5 kg尿素1次 Apply 12.5 kg diammonium phosphate, 12.5 kg organic fertilizer and 5 kg urea as base fertilizer before sowing, and topdressing 5 kg urea per acre.	5878 - 7465	1978, 2017- 2018	[43⇓-45]
平安 Pingan	2125	03-10— 04-10	—	—	每亩17 - 24 kg 17 - 24 kg per mu	二叶至三叶期间浇头水,分蘖、抽穗、灌浆和麦黄期分别浇一次水 Irrigate once during the two- to three- leaf period, and irrigate 4 times at tillering, heading, grain-filling and wheat yellowing stages	全生育期每亩施用3000-4000 kg农家肥,3.0-4.0 kg P₂O₅ Apply 3000-4000 kg farmyard manure and 3.0-4.0 kg P₂O₅ per mu during the whole growth period	6798 - 7946	2004- 2006	[46]

Table 1

Table 2

Meteorological stations located in different accumulated temperature ranges in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau"

积温区间 Accumulated temperature range	气象台站 Meteorological station
<1 600℃·d	色达、刚察、杂多、若尔盖、乌鞘岭、红原、玛曲、聂拉木、索县、理塘、门源、海晏、同德、班玛、兴海、定日、碌曲、类乌齐、狮泉河、祁连 Seda, Gangcha, Zaduo, Ruoergai, Wushaoling, Hongyuan, Maqu, Nielamu, Suoxian, Litang, Menyuan, Haiyan, Tongde, Banma, Xinghai, Dingri, Luqu, Leiwuqi, Shiquanhe, Qilian
1 600-3 400℃·d	合作、丁青、芒康、玉树、比如、阿坝、夏河、稻城、贵南、化隆、临潭、德钦、江孜、囊谦、壤塘、左贡、茶卡、普兰、湟源、隆子、互助、都兰、香格里拉、湟中、南木林、大通、大柴旦、茫崖、甘孜、松潘、洛隆、墨竹工卡、德格、卓尼、共和、炉霍、拉孜、日喀则、乌兰、塔什库尔干、康定、肃南、尼木、新龙、岷县、德令哈、冷湖、同仁、和政、九龙、小灶火、白玉、林芝、米林、昌都、道孚、拉萨、迭部、马尔康、西宁、泽当、诺木洪、波密、格尔木、贡嘎、康乐、黑水、加查、平安、贵德、乐都、肃北、乡城、尖扎、乌恰、民和、循化 Hezuo, Dingqing, Mangkang, Yushu, Biru, Aba, Xiahe, Daocheng, Guinan, Hualong, Lintan, Deqin, Jiangzi, Nangqian, Rangtang, Zuogong, Chaka, Pulan, Huangyuan, Longzi, Huzhu, Dulan, Shangri-La, Huangzhong, Nanmulin, Datong, Dachaidan, Mangya, Ganzi, Songpan, Luolong, Mozhugongka, Dege, Zhuoni, Gonghe, Luhuo, Lazi, Rikaze, Wulan, Tashikuergan, Kangding, Sunan, Nimu, Xinlong, Minxian, Delingha, Lenghu, Tongren, Hezheng, Jiulong, Xiaozhaohuo, Baiyu, Linzhi, Milin, Changdu, Daofu, Lhasa, Diebu, Maerkang, Xining, Zedang, Nuomuhong, Bomi, Golmud, Gongga, Kangle, Heishui, Jiacha, Pingan, Guide, Ledu, Subei, Xiangcheng, Jianzha, Wuqia, Minhe, Xunhua
>3 400℃·d	兰坪、雅江、盐源、宕昌、维西、木里、丽江、八宿、察隅、剑川、小金、宁蒗、金川、巴塘、洱源、舟曲 Lanping, Yajiang, Yanyuan, Dangchang, Weixi, Muli, Lijiang, Basu, Chayu, Jianchuan, Xiaojin, Ninglang, Jinchuan, Batang, Eryuan, Zhouqu

Table 2

Table 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

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参数 Parameter	含义Meaning		单位 Unit	参数值 Value
TBASEM	出苗时的最低下限温度 Lower threshold temperature for emergence		℃	0
AMAXTB	最大CO₂同化速率 Maximum leaf CO₂assimilation		kg CO₂ ·hm^-2·h^-1	35.83
SPAN	叶片在 35℃时的生命期 Life span of leaves growing at 35℃		d	31.3
RGRLAI	叶面积指数最大相对增长率 Maximum relative increase in LAI		hm²·hm^-2·d^-1	0.00817
PERDL	水分胁迫下的叶片最大死亡速率 Maximum relative death rate of leaves due to water stress		kg·(kg·d)^-1	0.030
RML	维持呼吸对同化物的消耗速率 Relative maintenance respiration rate	叶 Leaves	kg CH₂O·(kg·d)^-1	0.030
RMO		籽粒 Storage organs		0.010
RMR		根Roots		0.015
RMS		茎 Stems		0.015
Q10	温度每变化10℃呼吸速率的相对变化 Relative change in respiration rate per 10℃ change		—	2.0

气候因子 Climatic factor		积温区间 Accumulated temperature range
气候因子 Climatic factor		<1600℃·d	1600-3400℃·d	>3400℃·d	青藏高原The QTP
平均温度Average temperature	平均值 Average (℃)	9.255	13.199	17.564	13.111
最高温度 Maximum temperature		16.131	20.323	23.995	20.081
最低温度Minimum temperature		3.698	7.550	12.929	7.609
日较差 Diurnal range		12.425	12.778	11.057	12.470
太阳辐射 Solar radiation	平均值Average (MJ·m^-2)	3217.581	3139.613	2855.819	3159.795
平均温度Average temperature	变化率SLOPE (℃·(10a)^-1)	0.299***	0.228***	0.174***	0.236*
最高温度 Maximum temperature		0.270***	0.251***	0.189***	0.247***
最低温度Minimum temperature		0.402***	0.319***	0.256***	0.327***
日较差 Diurnal range		-0.121***	-0.075**	-0.042	-0.075***
太阳辐射 Solar radiation	变化率SLOPE (MJ·m^-2·(10a)^-1)	-6.624	-4.876	-9.262	-5.266

积温区间Accumulated temperature range	ΔTave	ΔTmax	ΔTmin	ΔTd	ΔRa
<1600℃·d	0.784***	0.770***	0.609***	0.162*	0. 120*
1600 - 3400℃·d	0.234**	0.351**	-0.200**	0.387**	0.470***
>3400℃·d	0.008	0.154*	-0.332**	0.371**	0.467***
青藏高原 The QTP	0.359**	0.383**	-0.111*	0.421***	0.510***

积温区间 Accumulated temperature range	逐步多元回归方程 Stepwise multiple linear regression	F	R²	RMSE
<1600℃·d	ΔYp = 885.71×ΔTave + 1.03	92.744	0.784	344.273
1600 - 3400℃·d	ΔYp = 3.42×ΔRa - 2.615	16.490	0.470	333.672
>3400℃·d	ΔYp = -398.65×ΔTmax + 3.07×ΔRa - 5.46	18.157	0.624	298.625
青藏高原The QTP	ΔYp = 2.64×ΔRa + 3.38	24.401	0.601	255.021

Photo-Temperature Potential Yield of Spring Wheat at Different Accumulated Temperature Ranges and Its Response to Climate Change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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