中国水稻绿色全要素生产率增长的时空分异与演进规律

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.09.008

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】This study aimed to unravel the spatiotemporal characteristics and evolutionary patterns of growth in green total factor productivity (GTFP) in rice production, with a view to exploring synergistic pathways for increasing yield while reducing carbon emissions, thereby supporting the transition toward higher-quality and more efficient rice industry development.【Method】Based on panel data from 23 provinces from 2006 to 2023, this study constructed a GTFP measurement system and comprehensively employs methods, such as life cycle assessment, super-efficiency SBM-GML model, convergence model, kernel density estimation, and Markov chain to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and dynamic evolution patterns of GTFP growth in rice with different cropping systems in China.【Result】(1) Double cropping rice demonstrated a pattern of "increasing production, reducing carbon emissions, and enhancing carbon sinks", while the improvement of "carbon sinks effect" in single cropping rice lagged behind "carbon reduction effect". (2) The GTFP of both rice types showed an upward trend. Double cropping rice had a faster average annual growth rate. Rice in Central China has the most maintained high GTFP levels. Heilongjiang, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Shaanxi had long the GTFP of the two types of rice but face constraints in GTFP growth. (3) There was σ-convergence in significant GTFP growth. Among the regions where single cropping rice was planted, only the GTFP in the Northeast showed σ-convergence. In the Central China and South China regions, double cropping rice was planted, there was σ-convergence. Both types of rice exhibited significant absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence nationwide and in various regions. (4) The phenomenon of multi-polar differentiation in GTFP growth tended to weaken, but regional disparities remained large. Regions with a high level of GTFP growth had a radiating and driving effect on regions with a low level.【Conclusion】Policy recommendations were put forward, including formulating differentiated strategies to promote carbon reduction for different rice, constructing a regional collaborative framework for enhancing rice production capacity and green development, and exploring the establishment of a cross-regional collaborative mechanism for diffusing green rice production technologies.

Key words: rice, green total factor productivity (GTFP), spatiotemporal characteristics, convergence, dynamic evolution patterns

YAO ZhiZhen, YANG ZiHong, ZHANG YingNan, YIN ChangBin. Green Total Factor Productivity Growth of Rice in China: Spatiotemporal and Evolutionary Patterns[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(9): 1937-1954.

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指标Indicator	分项名称Sub-item name	变量名称Variable name
投入变量 Input	劳动Labor	劳动力投入Labor input (d·hm^-2)
	资本Captain	种子使用量Seed usage (kg·hm^-2)
		化肥施用量Chemical fertilizer application rate (kg·hm^-2)
		农药使用量Pesticide application rate (kg·hm^-2)
		灌溉用电量Electricity consumption for irrigation (kWh·hm^-2)
		机械柴油用量Diesel consumption for machinery (kg·hm^-2)
产出变量 Output	期望产出Desirable output	水稻产量Rice yield (kg·hm^-2)
	期望产出Desirable output	土壤固碳Soil carbon sequestration (kgCO₂-eq·hm^-2)
	非期望产出Undesirable output	温室气体排放Greenhouse gas emissions (kgCO₂-eq·hm^-2)

周期 Cycle	单季稻Single cropping rice			双季稻Double cropping rice
周期 Cycle	（1）	（2）	（3）	（1）	（2）	（3）
	ML	EC	TC	ML	EC	TC
2006-2010	1.0154	0.9895	1.0262	1.0026	1.0044	0.9982
2011-2015	1.0394	1.0124	1.0267	1.0322	0.9875	1.0453
2016-2020	1.0508	1.0155	1.0347	1.0376	1.0095	1.0278
2021-2023	1.0427	0.9826	1.0643	1.0443	0.9914	1.0534
年均值Annual average value	1.0364	1.0018	1.0350	1.0274	0.9989	1.0285
	CML	CEC	CTC	CML	CEC	CTC
2006-2010	1.0221	0.9985	1.0236	1.0013	1.0058	0.9955
2011-2015	1.0517	1.0126	1.0386	1.0423	0.9851	1.0581
2016-2020	1.0522	1.0216	1.0299	1.0410	1.0116	1.0292
2021-2023	1.0472	0.9754	1.0736	1.0488	0.9847	1.0651
年均值Annual average value	1.0428	0.9998	1.0430	1.0315	0.9981	1.0335
	GML	GEC	GTC	GML	GEC	GTC
2006-2010	0.9945	0.9923	1.0022	1.0255	1.0059	1.0195
2011-2015	1.0462	0.9842	1.0630	1.0486	0.9718	1.0790
2016-2020	1.0384	1.0235	1.0145	1.0715	1.0217	1.0487
2021-2023	1.0213	0.9756	1.0468	1.0632	0.9868	1.0774
年均值Annual average value	1.0253	0.9958	1.0296	1.0508	0.9974	1.0535

产区 Producing area		单季稻Single cropping rice			双季稻Double cropping rice
产区 Producing area		GML	GEC	GTC	GML	GEC	GTC
东北稻作区Northeast		1.0125	0.9923	1.0204
	内蒙古Inner Mongolia	1.0185	0.9522	1.0697	—	—	—
	辽宁Liaoning	1.0316	1.0240	1.0074	—	—	—
	吉林Jilin	1.0164	1.0003	1.0160	—	—	—
	黑龙江Heilongjiang	0.9843	0.9939	0.9903	—	—	—
华北稻作区North		1.0531	1.0062	1.0467
	河北Hebei	1.0613	1.0236	1.0368	—	—	—
	山东Shandong	1.0557	0.9952	1.0608	—	—	—
	河南Henan	1.0425	0.9999	1.0426	—	—	—
华中稻作区Central		1.0622	1.0047	1.0572	1.0519	1.0026	1.0491
	江苏Jiangsu	1.0736	1.0010	1.0726	—	—	—
	浙江Zhejiang	1.0488	0.9741	1.0768	1.0540	0.9930	1.0614
	安徽Anhui	1.0682	1.0345	1.0326	1.0525	1.0032	1.0491
	江西Jiangxi	—	—	—	1.0330	1.0044	1.0285
	湖北Hubei	1.0659	1.0138	1.0514	1.0574	1.0019	1.0554
	湖南Hunan	1.0545	1.0013	1.0531	1.0629	1.0108	1.0515
西北稻作区Northeast		1.0037	0.9869	1.0171
	陕西Shaanxi	1.0024	1.0080	0.9945	—	—	—
	宁夏Ningxia	1.0051	0.9663	1.0402	—	—	—
西南稻作区Southeast		0.9823	0.9876	0.9946
	重庆Chongqing	0.9988	1.0193	0.9799	—	—	—
	四川Sichuan	1.0148	0.9995	1.0153	—	—	—
	贵州Guizhou	0.9063	0.9464	0.9576	—	—	—
	云南Yunnan	1.0134	0.9866	1.0272	—	—	—
华南稻作区South		1.0327	0.9850	1.0484	1.0448	0.9898	1.0555
	福建Fujian	1.0327	0.9850	1.0484	1.0330	1.0044	1.0285
	广东Guangdong	—	—	—	1.0189	0.9581	1.0635
	广西Guangxi	—	—	—	1.0596	1.0004	1.0593
	海南Hainan	—	—	—	1.0683	0.9971	1.0714

年份 Year	单季稻σ收敛检验 σ-convergence test for single cropping rice						双季稻σ收敛检验 σ-convergence test for double cropping rice
年份 Year	东北 Northeast	华北 North	华中 Central	西北 Northwest	西南 Southwest	全国 Nation	华中 Central	华南 South	全国 Nation
2006	0.6328	0.1426	0.1276	0.8109	0.4436	0.5254	0.4013	0.2274	0.4100
2007	0.3808	0.1652	0.0921	0.8689	0.4262	0.4924	0.5276	0.1192	0.7251
2008	0.3176	0.1102	0.1835	0.8252	0.4486	0.5214	0.4558	0.2651	0.5537
2009	0.4038	0.1781	0.2340	0.6621	0.4353	0.4246	0.3329	0.2492	0.5867
2010	0.3322	0.2440	0.1934	0.8130	0.4014	0.3911	0.2574	0.1826	0.1387
2011	0.3449	0.2442	0.1614	0.8932	0.4744	0.3850	0.2352	0.2560	0.1953
2012	0.4159	0.2385	0.1274	0.8401	0.3856	0.3453	0.2052	0.2037	0.1453
2013	0.4711	0.1418	0.2122	0.8397	0.4764	0.4215	0.2878	0.3315	0.1901
2014	0.4826	0.2538	0.2171	0.7482	0.4161	0.3629	0.2422	0.2262	0.0162
2015	0.4612	0.3921	0.4097	0.8455	0.4759	0.4283	0.2531	0.2197	0.1422
2016	0.4951	0.1259	0.2967	0.7746	0.4907	0.3894	0.2608	0.2656	0.1406
2017	0.4410	0.2143	0.2745	0.5959	0.5829	0.3801	0.2899	0.2322	0.2712
2018	0.4939	0.3532	0.2272	0.5656	0.5545	0.3720	0.2543	0.0841	0.3625
2019	0.3272	0.2625	0.1757	0.5433	0.5624	0.3368	0.2300	0.1620	0.2742
2020	0.3542	0.2593	0.1861	0.5655	0.6049	0.3323	0.2463	0.1474	0.3690
2021	0.4242	0.2832	0.2036	0.4851	0.5719	0.3457	0.2409	0.1874	0.3295
2022	0.3260	0.1569	0.1990	0.8117	0.5123	0.3404	0.2372	0.1355	0.3052
2023	0.3938	0.1536	0.1645	0.8807	0.5617	0.3643	0.2054	0.0175	0.3164

区域 Region	单季稻Single cropping rice						双季稻Double cropping rice
区域 Region	全国 Nation	东北 Northeast	华北 North	华中 Central	西北 Northwest	西南 Southwest	全国 Nation	华中 Central	华南 South
β	-0.115^*** (0.023)	-0.154^*** （0.060）	-0.111^** （0.060）	-0.089^*** （0.045）	-0.035^* （0.043）	-0.247^*** （0.059）	-0.129^*** （0.043）	-0.105^** （0.054）	-0.176^** (0.071)
α	-0.047^*** (0.018)	-0.094^** （0.048）	-0.018 （0.042）	0.006 （0.033）	-0.020 （0.039）	-0.168^*** （0.052）	-0.029 （0.030）	-0.003 （0.035）	-0.076 (0.055)
R²	0.145	0.165	0.090	0.049	0.269	0.382	0.072	0.046	0.118

Green Total Factor Productivity Growth of Rice in China: Spatiotemporal and Evolutionary Patterns

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