Abstract: Abstract: Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity and economy, such as the case of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora), a bacteria disease originated in North America, which may be released into new locations by means of fruits trade. On the basis of the knowledge of fire blight’s biophysical characteristics and environmental data, Geographic Information System (GIS) was applied to determine areas where fire blight can potentially invade in China where the pest has not been introduced. Temperature, together with the precipitation during the blossom period was considered to be two critical factors affecting fire blight’s suitable climatic zones. This spatial modeling approach was validated with a case study for the Europe, where the occurrence of fire blight has been proven. The model prediction agreed with the occurrence of this bacteria recorded in Europe and allowed us to apply the same procedure to produce a potential establishment areas in China’s two preferentially apple cultivation regions, Bohai Bay region and Huangtu altiplano region. It has been found out that areas belonging to the high-risk category are almost the main apple producing areas accounting for their great economic importance in China. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. In addition, this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use in making decisions on management practices when alien species are involved.

Key words: biological invasions, fire blight, GIS, potential distribution, risk assessment