河南省冬小麦种植频率时空变化及影响因素分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.09.007

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Quantitative analysis was made on spatio-temporal variations of winter wheat planting frequency (WWPF) and its main influencing factors in different stages (2001-2005, 2006-2010 and 2011-2015) in Henan province, in order to further clarify the characteristics of crop planting frequency change and the sequence of main influencing factors. 【Method】In this study, winter wheat in Henan province was taken as the research crop. The spatial information of winter wheat planting frequency in different periods in the study area were obtained by extracting the spatial crop distribution information for 15 consecutive years (2001-2015) using mid-low resolution MODIS EVI time series remote sensing data and CART decision tree algorithm. On this basis, the spatio-temporal variations of winter wheat planting frequency in different stages were analyzed, and the influencing factors of the winter wheat planting frequency variations in different stages were investigated by correlation analysis, principal component analysis and linear regression analysis. Finally, the sequence of the main influence factors was determined. 【Result】It was verified that the average overall precision of winter wheat extraction was 90.39%, and the Kappa coefficient was between 0.82 and 0.92, which could meet the requirements of spatial distribution accuracy of crops required for regional winter wheat planting frequency change research. By analyzing the spatial and temporal variation information of the winter wheat planting frequency in different periods in Henan province, most of the main winter wheat producing regions in Henan province had higher winter wheat planting frequency (WWPF>80%), while the planting frequency of winter wheat was generally lower in southwestern Henan and in mountainous areas of southern Henan due to complex topography and poor natural conditions (WWPF≤40%). In addition, during the three periods, the area of winter wheat planted at high frequency increased gradually in the main winter wheat producing areas of Henan province, the area proportion of WWPF>80% was 42.68%, 59.94% and 63.07%, respectively. And the area planted at low frequency showed a decreasing trend, the area proportion of WWPF≤40% was 28.53%, 17.99% and 16.63%, respectively, which were of great significance to stabilize the planted area of grain in the main winter wheat producing areas of China. According to the analysis results of influencing factors of winter wheat planting frequency, there was a significant correlation between the WWPF in Henan province and the ratio of effective irrigation area, soil quality comprehensive index, climate suitability at sowing stage, slope and elevation, etc. Besides the negative correlation between slope/elevation and WWPF, other factors were all positively correlated with WWPF. The ranking results of the above indicators affecting on the WWPF were as follows: soil comprehensive quality index>climatic suitability at sowing stage>effective irrigated area ratio>slope (elevation), that was to say, the soil quality>sowing date climatic condition>irrigation condition>topographic condition. 【Conclusion】Based on quantitative analysis of spatio-temporal variations of winter wheat planting frequency and its influencing factors in Henan province, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and variation law of winter wheat planting frequency in Henan province were clarified, and the influencing factors and importance ranking of winter wheat planting frequency in Henan province were gotten, which could provide some technical methods and ideas for the analysis of crop planting area change, and provide some basic theoretical support for the construction of regional agricultural land use decision-making model.

Key words: Henan province, winter wheat, crop area extraction, crop planting frequency, spatio-temporal variations, influencing factors

FangJie LI,JianQiang REN,ShangRong WU,ZhongXin CHEN,NingDan ZHANG. Spatio-Temporal Variations of Winter Wheat Planting Frequency and Their Analysis of Influencing Factors in Henan Province[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2020, 53(9): 1773-1794.

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年份 Year	地面样点 Ground samples			Google Earth样点 Google Earth samples			训练样点 Training samples
年份 Year	冬小麦 Winter wheat	非冬小麦 Non-winter wheat	总计 Total	冬小麦 Winter wheat	非冬小麦 Non-winter wheat	总计 Total	冬小麦 Winter wheat	非冬小麦 Non-winter wheat	总计 Total
2001	—	—	—	1145	1073	2218	295	423	718
2002	—	—	—	1165	1118	2283	315	468	783
2003	—	—	—	1155	1101	2256	305	451	756
2004	—	—	—	1095	1150	2245	245	500	745
2005	—	—	—	1100	1117	2217	250	467	717
2006	39	42	81	1129	1081	2210	318	473	791
2007	53	54	107	1027	1026	2053	230	430	660
2008	44	41	85	1027	1024	2051	221	415	636
2009	47	45	92	1043	1115	2158	240	510	750
2010	45	45	90	1015	1105	2120	210	500	710
2011	51	53	104	1049	1022	2071	250	425	675
2012	57	58	115	1073	1057	2130	280	465	745
2013	62	60	122	1023	999	2022	235	409	644
2014	69	71	140	998	1006	2004	217	427	644
2015	71	70	141	984	995	1979	205	415	620

指标名称 Indicator name	输入参数 Input parameter	计算公式 Computational formulas	备注 Remarks
旬温度适宜度 Ten days temperature suitability	温度适宜度S(T) Temperature suitability S(T)	$S(T)=[(T-T_1)(T_2-T)^B]/[(T_0-T_1)(T_2-T_0)^B]\\B= (T_2-T_0)/(T_0-T_1)$	T是旬平均温度,T₁、T₂、T₀分别是该时段生长发育下限温度、上限温度和最适温度,分别取值4、33、15^[42] T is the ten days average temperature, T₁, T₂, T₀ are the lower limit temperature, upper limit temperature and the most suitable temperature for growth and development in this period, taking 4, 33, 15 respectively ^[42]
旬降水适宜度 Ten days precipitation suitability	降水适宜度S(R) Precipitation suitability S(R)	$S(R)=\begin{cases} R/ R_{0} & R<R_{0} \\ R_{0}/R & R> R_{0} \end{cases}$	R为旬平均降水量（mm）,R₀为作物生理需水量,研究中,10月上旬和中旬R₀分别11mm和9.1mm^[42] R is tens day average precipitation (mm), R₀ is the physiological water demand of crops, in the first ten days and the middle ten days of October, R₀ is 11mm and 9.1mm respectively ^[42]
旬日照适宜度 Ten days sunshine suitability	日照适宜度S(L) Sunshine suitability S(L)	$S(L)=\begin{cases} e^{-[(L-L_{0})/b]^{2}} & L<L_{0} \\ l & L\geq L_{0} \end{cases}$	L表示实际日照时数（小时）,L₀表示日照百分率为70%的日照时数,b为常数,文中L₀=7.69,b=4.15^[42] L represents the actual sunshine hours (hours), L₀ is the sunshine hours with the sunshine percentage of 70%, and b is a constant. In this paper, L₀ = 7.69, b = 4.15 ^[42]

Spatio-Temporal Variations of Winter Wheat Planting Frequency and Their Analysis of Influencing Factors in Henan Province

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