土壤管理措施对小麦产量影响的全球Meta分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.12.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】为应对全球人口增长带来的粮食安全挑战，提升小麦产量及产量稳定性至关重要。尽管保护性耕作、地膜覆盖等土壤管理措施展现出巨大的增产潜力，但其效应受到气候、土壤条件与农业管理措施的影响，存在显著变异。因此，本研究通过全球尺度的综合分析，明确不同土壤管理措施对小麦产量及其稳定性的影响，并揭示其关键影响因素，旨在为全球小麦产能提升策略的制定提供科学依据。【方法】基于280篇文献中的1 755组数据，在全球尺度上，通过Meta分析方法评估不同气候条件、土壤性质和农业管理措施影响下，4种土壤管理措施（少耕/免耕、地膜覆盖、秸秆覆盖和秸秆还田）对小麦产量的效应，并分析产量稳定性和影响因素（气候、土壤性质和农业管理措施）对小麦产量变化的重要性。【结果】综合分析表明，地膜覆盖在显著增产（31.0%）和提升稳定性（21.0%）方面综合效果最优，尤其适用于中等气温（年均温15.1—20.0 ℃）、干旱（生育期降雨量<200 mm）、黏土、高土壤容重（>1.5 g·cm^-3）、高肥力（有机质>20 g·kg^-1，速效磷>30 mg·kg^-1）及高密度种植（播种量>150 kg·hm^-2）的环境；秸秆还田可增产6.1%（稳定性无显著变化），更适应干旱（生育期降雨量≤400 mm）、中低土壤容重（≤1.5 g·cm^-3）及适宜施氮量（100—150 kg N·hm^-2）的条件；秸秆覆盖虽增产幅度有限（4.1%），但产量稳定性较高，显著提升了28.7%，在中等气温、干旱、砂/壤土、高土壤容重及适宜秸秆投入量（5—8 t·hm^-2）下表现最佳；少耕/免耕虽无增产效应，但能显著提升产量稳定性（23.1%），其增产效果仅在低温、干旱、砂/壤土、低施肥量（施氮<100 kg·hm^-2，施钾<50 kg·hm^-2）及低播种量（≤150 kg·hm^-2）条件下才能达到显著水平。随机森林分析结果表明，各措施的产量效应受不同主导因子驱动：少耕/免耕主要受施磷量、生育期降雨量和年平均气温的影响；秸秆覆盖主要受生育期降雨量、播种量和年平均气温的影响；地膜覆盖主要受生育期降雨量、土壤有机质含量和年平均气温的影响；秸秆还田主要受秸秆投入量、年平均气温和土壤有机质含量的影响。【结论】地膜覆盖、秸秆还田和秸秆覆盖是提升小麦产量的有效措施，其中地膜覆盖增产效果最显著。基于气候条件、土壤特性及农业管理措施对各土壤管理措施增产效应的显著影响，在实际应用中，应结合区域气候、土壤特征，选择匹配的土壤管理措施，并配套优化农艺技术方案，以充分发挥其增产作用。

关键词: 小麦产量, 产量稳定性, 地膜覆盖, 秸秆覆盖, 秸秆还田, 少/免耕

Abstract:

【Objective】Addressing the challenge of global food security posed by a growing population necessitates enhancements in both wheat yield and yield stability. However, soil management practices, such as conservation tillage and plastic film mulching, show significant potential for yield gain, and their effects are highly variable due to the influence of climate, soil properties, and agricultural management practices. Therefore, this study employe quantified the effects of different soil management practices on wheat yield and its stability by using global meta-analysis, and the key influencing factors were identified, aiming to provide a scientific basis for strategies to enhance global wheat productivity.【Method】Based on 1 755 paired observations from 280 published studies, a global meta-analysis was conducted to quantify the effects of four soil management practices (reduced/no-tillage, plastic film mulching, straw mulching, and straw incorporation) on wheat yield under varying climatic factors, soil properties, and agricultural management practices. Yield stability was systematically evaluated, the relative importance of key drivers (namely, climatic factors, soil properties, and agricultural management practices) were determined by using variance decomposition analysis.【Result】A comprehensive analysis demonstrated that plastic film mulching achieved optimal integrated outcomes with significant yield enhancement (31.0%) and improved stability (21.0%), being particularly suitable for environments characterized by moderate mean annual temperatures (15.1-20.0 ℃), drought conditions (precipitation <200 mm in growing season), clay texture, high soil bulk density (>1.5 g·cm^-3), high soil fertility (soil organic matter >20 g·kg^-1, and available phosphorus >30 mg·kg^-1), and high planting density (seeding rate >150 kg·hm^-2). Straw incorporation increased yield by 6.1% without significant stability effects and adapted better to drought conditions (precipitation ≤400 mm in growing season), medium-low soil bulk density (≤1.5 g·cm^-3), and appropriate nitrogen application rates (100-150 kg N·hm^-2). Although straw mulching provided limited yield increase (4.1%), it substantially improved yield stability (28.7%) and performed the best effect under moderate temperatures, drought conditions, sandy/loam soils, high bulk density, and suitable straw input (5-8 t·hm^-2). Reduced/no-tillage showed no general yield enhancement, while it significantly improved yield stability (23.1%), with yield benefits becoming significant only under specific conditions, including low temperatures, drought conditions, sandy/loam soils, low fertilizer input (N<100 kg·hm^-2, K₂O<50 kg·hm^-2), and low seeding rates (≤150 kg·hm^-2). Random forest analysis revealed distinct dominant drivers for each practice: the yield effect of reduced/no-tillage was primarily driven by phosphorus application rate, growing season precipitation, and mean annual temperature; straw mulching by growing season precipitation, seeding rate, and mean annual temperature; plastic film mulching by growing season precipitation, soil organic matter, and mean annual temperature; and straw incorporation by straw input, mean annual temperature, and soil organic matter.【Conclusion】Plastic film mulching, straw incorporation, and straw mulching were effective practices for enhancing wheat yield, with plastic film mulching showing the most significant effect. As their effectiveness depended substantially on climatic factors, soil properties, and agronomic practices, region-specific practices should be selected based on local climate-soil conditions, combined with optimized agronomic strategies, to maximize yield potential.

Key words: wheat yield, yield stability, plastic film mulching, straw mulching, straw incorporation, reduced/no-tillage

张烨, 王文宁, 朱靓萍, 陈语涵, 韩燕, 张润泽, 胡昌录, 杨学云, 张树兰. 土壤管理措施对小麦产量影响的全球Meta分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2026, 59(12): 2656-2670.

ZHANG Ye, WANG WenNing, ZHU LiangPing, CHEN YuHan, HAN Yan, ZHANG RunZe, HU ChangLu, YANG XueYun, ZHANG ShuLan. Global Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Soil Management Practices on Wheat Yield[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(12): 2656-2670.

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区域 Region	国家数量 Number of countries	纬度范围 Latitudinal range	经度范围 Longitude range	组数 Number of comparisons
亚洲 Asia	10	22.99°N—43.82°N	34.70°E—140.10°E	2708
非洲 Africa	6	33.28°S—36.60°N	7.59°W—38.48°E	286
欧洲 Europe	7	22.17°N—51.30°N	4.52°W—73.54°E	178
北美洲 North America	3	20.52°N—55.72°N	119.38°W—84.50°W	314
南美洲 South America	2	36.62°S—33.67°S	72.40°W—57.95°W	22
大洋洲 Oceania	2	43.53°S—31.48°S	118.20°E—172.06°E	46

影响因素 Affecting factors		亚组 Subgroup
气候因素 Climatic factor	年平均气温 Mean annual temperature, MAT (℃)	<10 （很低 Very low）	10—15 （低 Low）	15.1—20 （中 Medium）	>20 （高 High）
气候因素 Climatic factor	生育期降雨量 Growing season precipitation, GSP (mm)	<200 （低 Low）	200—400 （中 Medium）	>400 （高 High）
土壤性质 Soil property	土壤质地 Soil texture	砂土 Sandy	壤土 Loam	黏土 Clay
	容重 Bulk density, BD (g·cm^-3)	<1.3（低 Low）	1.3—1.5（中 Medium）	>1.5（高 High）
	有机质 Soil organic matter, SOM (g·kg^-1)	<15（低 Low）	15—20（中 Medium）	>20（高 High）
	速效磷 Soil available phosphorus, AP (mg·kg^-1)	<15（低 Low）	15—30（中 Medium）	>30（高 High）
农业管理措施Agricultural management practice	施氮量 N rate (kg N·hm^-2)	<100（低 Low）	100—150（中 Medium）	>150（高 High）
	施磷量 P rate (kg P₂O₅·hm^-2)	<100（低 Low）	100—150（中 Medium）	>150（高 High）
	施钾量 K rate (kg K₂O·hm^-2)	<50（低 Low）	50—100（中 Medium）	>100（高 High）
	播种量 Seeding rate, SR (kg·hm^-2)	≤150（低 Low）	>150（高 High）
	秸秆投入量 Straw rate (t·hm^-2)	<5（低 Low）	5—8（中 Medium）	>8（高 High）
	灌溉 Irrigation	是 Yes	否 No