基于中国居民平衡膳食模式的人均粮食需求量研究

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.11.022

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】To analyze the composition of China’s per-capita grain demand, ascertain the per-capita grain consumption on the basis of rational diet patterns to realize the limited resources utility maximization and provide new supporting data for China's food security, and provide a scientific basis for developing appropriate policies to guide the consumer. All of the researches above are based on people’s nutrition and health.【Method】 The demand for per capita rations, grain for fodder and processing in the balanced diet model were calculated by applying the Prandial Balance Analysis Method. The per capita demand for seeds, industry and wastage were calculated by using the Trend Prediction Method, and the Scenarios Analysis Method was adoped to discuss different influence degrees between the two results.【Result】 The per-capita grain demand based on balanced dietary pattern is no more than 400 kg•a-1. The low program is 252.64 kg•a-1 the middle program is 322.07 kg•a-1, and the high program is 386.60 kg•a-1. In recent years, the real per-capita grain consumption in China has been fluctuating between 406.09-378.88 kg•a-1, which is greater than per-capita grain demand in the balanced dietary pattern. 【Conclusion】 If the per-capita grain demand in China reaches 322.07 kg•a-1, it will basically meet the per-capita demand for food security. If per-capita grain consumption reaches 386.60 kg•a-1, it will basically ensure the food security in China. The current residents’ irrational food consumption pattern brings about the differences between the per-capita grain demand based on the balanced dietary patterns and the real per-capita grain consumption. Therefore, the government should adjust the structure of food production, strengthen propaganda and popularization work of food consumption awareness about reasonable diet structure, and guide people to cultivate reasonable food consumption habits with the goal of nutrition and health.

Key words: food security, per-capita grain demand, per-capita grain consumption, nutrition and health, the balanced dietary pattern

TANG Hua-Jun, LI Zhe-Min. Study on Per Capita Grain Demand Based on Chinese Reasonable Dietary Pattern[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(11): 2315-2327.

0
/ / Recommend

Add to citation manager EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks

URL: https://www.chinaagrisci.com/EN/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.11.022

https://www.chinaagrisci.com/EN/Y2012/V45/I11/2315

References

[1]傅泽强, 蔡运龙, 杨友孝, 戴尔阜. 中国粮食安全与耕地资源变化的相关分析. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(4): 313-319.

Fu Z Q, Cai Y L, Yang Y X, Dai E F. Research on the relationship of cultivated land change and food security in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(4): 313-319. (in Chinese)

[2]聂振邦. 始终绷紧粮食安全这根弦. (2011-02-15) [2012-04-06] http://www.grainnews.com.cn/xw/deep/rw/lyjy/2011/02/15_68005.html.

Nie Z B. Pay close attention to the food security closely. (2011-02-15) [2012-04-16]http://www.grainnews.com.cn/xw/deep/rw/lyjy/2011/02/15_68005.html.

[3]鲁奇. 中国耕地资源开发、保护与粮食安全保障问题. 资源科学, 1999, 21(6): 5-8.

Lu Q. Some issues on the relationship between land resources development, production and food security. Resources Science, 1999, 21(6): 5-8. (in Chinese)

[4]中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室. 《中国的粮食问题》白皮书. 北京: 外文出版社, 2001.

People’s Republic of China State Council Information Office. Food Issue in China. Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 2001.(in Chinese)

[5]Walker K R. Food Grain Procurement and Consumption in China. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010.

[6]Huang K S, Gale F. Food Demand in China: Income, Quality, and Nutrient Effects. Beijing: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2009.

[7]Liu X Z. China's Grain Consumption Demand and Its Implications for Canada-China Grain Trade. Alberta: University of Alberta, 2004.

[8]Hovhannisyan V, Gould B W. Quantifying the structure of food demand in China using a generalized quadratic AIDS specification// Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting. Orlando, 2010.

[9]Lester B. Who will feed China? World Watch, 1994(9): 10-19.

[10]Gale F, Huang K S. Chinese consumers demand premium foods. Amber Waves, 2007(3): 2.

[11]Liu J, Savenije H H G. Food consumption patterns and their effect on water requirement in China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2008 (3): 887-898.

[12]曹历娟, 洪摇伟. 世界粮食危机背景下我国的粮食安全问题. 南京农业大学学报: 社会科学版, 2009, 9(2): 32-37.

Cao L J, Hong Y W. China′s food security under the background of the world′s food crisis. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University: Social Sciences Edition, 2009, 9(2): 32-37. (in Chinese)

[13]常平凡. 中国人均食用粮食消费量的时序预测. 山西农业大学学报, 2005(1): 87-91.

Chang P F. A time series forecasting of food-grain consumption per capita in China. Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University, 2005(1): 87-91. (in Chinese)

[14]中国农业科学院. 人均400公斤粮食必不可少. 中国农业科学, 1986, 19(5): 1-7.

Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. 400 kilogrammes of grain per capita are essential to China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 1986, 19(5): 1-7. (in Chinese)

[15]贺一梅, 杨子生. 基于粮食安全的区域人均粮食需求量分析. 经济理论研究, 2008(7): 6-8.

He Y M, Yang Z S. Analysis of regional per capita food demand based on food security. China Business, 2008(7): 6-8. (in Chinese)

[16]程国强, 陈良彪. 中国粮食需求的长期趋势. 中国农村观察, 1998(3): 1-5.

Cheng G Q, Chen L B. Long-term trend of China’s grain demand. China Rural Survey, 1998(3): 1-5. ( in Chinese)

[17]陈玲玲, 林振山, 郭杰, 原艳梅. 基于EMD的中国粮食安全保障研究. 中国农业科学, 2009, 42(1): 180-188.

Chen L L, Lin Z S, Guo J, Yuan Y M. Research on Chinese future grain security based on the method of EMD. Scientia Agricultura Sinica，2009, 42(1): 180-188. (in Chinese)

[18]封志明. 中国未来人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保障. 人口研究, 2007, 31(2): 15-29.

Feng Z M. Future food security and arable land guarantee for population development in China. Population Research, 2007, 31(2): 15-29. (in Chinese)

[19]马永欢, 牛文元. 基于粮食安全的中国粮食需求预测与耕地资源配置研究. 中国软科学, 2009(3): 11-16.

Ma Y H, Niu W Y. Forecasting on grain demand and availability of cultivated land resources based on grain safety in China. China Soft Science, 2009(3): 11-16. (in Chinese)

[20]胡小平, 郭晓慧. 2020年中国粮食需求结构分析及预测——基于营养标准的视角. 中国农村经济, 2010(6): 4-15.

Hu X P, Guo X H. Structure analysis and prediction of China’s grain demand in 2020-based on the perspective of nutrition standards. Chinese Rural Economy, 2010(6): 4-15. (in Chinese)

[21]骆建忠. 基于营养目标的粮食消费需求研究[D]. 北京: 中国农业科学院, 2008.

Luo J Z. Study on grain demand based on the goal of nutrition[D]. Beijing: Chinese Accademy of Agricultural Sciences, 2008. (in Chinese)

[22]姜风, 孙瑾. 对当前我国粮食需求的中长期预测方法研究. 经济与管理研究, 2007(9): 46-50.

Jang F, Sun J. Research on the middle and long-term prediction method for grain demand in China currently. Research on Economics and Management, 2007(9): 46-50. (in Chinese)

[22]韩俊, 谢扬, 肖俊彦, 崔晓黎, 于保平, 潘耀国, 罗丹. 我国粮食消费需求分析与政策建议. 中国发展评论, 2005, 7(3): 33-39.

Han J, Xei Y, Xiao J Y, Cui X L, Yu B P, Pan Y G, Luo D. Analysis and policy recommendations on China’ grain consumption demand. China Development Review, 2005, 7(3): 33-39. (in Chinese)

[23]郭燕枝, 郭静利, 王秀东. 试比较我国粮食自给率和谷物自给率. 农业经济, 2008(1): 22-24.

Guo Y Z, Guo J L, Wang X D. Try to compare China’s food self-sufficiency and grain self-sufficiency. Agricultural Economy, 2008(1): 22-24. (in Chinese)

[24]中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室. 现代汉语词典. 5版. 北京: 商务出版社, 2005.

Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Language Dictionary Editing Room. Modern Chinese Dictionary. 5th ed. Beijing: Business Press, 2005.

[25]中华粮网. 中国粮食安全新思维. ( 2009-08-11)[2012-04-10] http://www.ntgrain.gov.cn/art/2009/8/11/art_11496_274336.html

Chinese Food Network. New Thinking of China’s Food Security. (2009-08-11)[2012-04-10]http://www.ntgrain.gov.cn/art/2009/8/11/art_11496_274336.html

[26]李哲敏. 食物安全的内涵分析. 中国食物与营养, 2003(8): 10-13.

Li Z M. Analysis of food safety content. Food and Nutrition in China, 2003(8): 10-13. (in Chinese)

[27]中国营养学会. 中国居民膳食指南(2007). 拉萨: 西藏人民出版社, 2008: 69.

Chinese Nutrition Society. Chinese Dietary Guidelines(2007). Lasa: Tibet People Press, 2008: 69. (in Chinese)

[28]中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1995-2010.

National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press. 1995-2010. (in Chinese)

[29]中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国农村入户调查年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1995-2010年.

National Bureau of Statistics of China. China’s Rural Household Survey Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1995-2010. (in Chinese)

[30]中华人民共和国农业部. 中国农业发展报告. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2002-2009.

Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China. China Agricultural Development Report. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2002-2009. (in Chinese)

[31]中华人民共和国农业部. 新中国60年统计资料. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2009.

Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China. China Compendium of Statistics 1949-2008. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2009. (in Chinese)

[32]中华人民共和国国家统计局. 全国农产品成本收益资料汇编. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1995-2010.

National Bureau of Statistics of China. National Agricultural Cost-benefit Compilation. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1995-2010. (in Chinese)

[33]黄圣明. 《中国食品工业年鉴》编辑部. 中国食品工业年鉴. 北京：中华书局，1996-2010.

Huang S M. “China’s Food Industry Yearbook” Editorial. China’s Food Industry Yearbook. Beijing: Zhonghua Book Company, 1996-2010. (in Chinese)

[34]科学技术部农村与社会发展司, 中国农业机械化科学研究院, 中国包装和食品机械总公司. 中国农产品加工业年鉴. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2009.

Division of Rural and Social Development of Ministry of Science and Technology, The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Sciences, China Packaging and Food Machinery Corporation. China Agricultural Products Yearbook. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2009. (in Chinese)

[35]聂振邦. 中国粮食年鉴. 北京: 经济管理出版社，1996-2010.

Nie Z B. China’ Food Yearbook. Beijing: Economic Management Press, 1996-2010. (in Chinese)

[36]张峭. 中国小麦消费趋势和结构变化. 农业展望, 2005(1): 14-17.

Zhang Q. Chinese wheat consumption trends and structural changes. Agricultural Outlook, 2005(1): 14-17. (in Chinese)

[37]王川. 不同区域粮食消费需求现状与预测. 中国食物与营养, 2007(6): 34-37.

Wang C. Food consumption demand situation and forecast in different regions. Food and Nutrition in China, 2007(6): 34-37. (in Chinese)

[38]张桐. 1994年世界油脂生产与消费预测. 中国经济信息, 1994(8): 44.

Zhang T. Oil production and consumption forecasts around the world in 1994. China Economic Information, 1994(8): 44. (in Chinese)

[39]汤艳丽. 中国豆油的生产、贸易与消费. 中国农村经济, 2000(4): 32-36.

Tang Y L. The production, trade and consumption of soybean oil in China. Chinese Rural Economy, 2000(4): 32-36. (in Chinese)

[40]曹智. 我国豆油市场供需状况及发展趋势. 农业展望, 2006(4): 13-18.

Cao Z. Chinese soybean production. Agricultural Outlook, 2006(4): 13-18. (in Chinese)

[41]吕晓敏, 代养勇, 董海洲, 刘传富, 丁骁. 我国大豆加工业的现状和发展趋势. 中国食物与营养, 2009(12): 23-25.

Lv X M, Dai Y Y, Dong H Z, Liu C F, Ding X. The status and development trends of China’s soybean processing. Food and Nutrition in China, 2009(12): 23-25. (in Chinese)

[42]王瑞元. 中国油脂工业与大豆产业. 中国食物与营养, 2006(11): 4-7.

Wang R Y. Chinese oil industry and the soybean industry. Food and Nutrition in China, 2006(11): 4-7. (in Chinese)

[43]http://www.yz006.com/news/201103/40190_03.html.

[44]葛可佑, 杨晓光, 程义勇. 平衡膳食、合理营养、促进健康——解读《中国居民膳食指南》(2007). (2011-1-26)[2012-04-16] http://www.cnsoc.org/cn/experts_info.asp?nid=1083.

Ge K Y, Yang X G, Cheng Y Y. Balanced diet, rational nutrition, health promotion-analysis “Chinese Dietary Guidelines” (2007). (2011-1-26)[2012-04-16]. http://www.cnsoc.org/cn/experts_info.asp? nid=1083. (in Chinese)

[45]国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008－2020). (2010-12-13) [2010-04-16]http://www.qstheory.cn/dd/2010/lswj/201012/t20101213_59346.htm.

National Food Security and Long-term Planning Framework (2008-2020). (2010-12-13) [2010-04-16]http://www.qstheory.cn/dd/ 2010/lswj/201012/t20101213_59346.htm. (in Chinese)

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed

Comments

Recommended 0

No Suggested Reading articles found!

Study on Per Capita Grain Demand Based on Chinese Reasonable Dietary Pattern

PDF

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	YANG ShiQi. Thought of Pollution Comprehensive Prevention and Control System of Non-Point Sources Based on National Food Security [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2022, 55(17): 3380-3394.
[2]	CHEN Kevin,BI JieYing,NIE FengYing,FANG XiangMing,FAN ShengGen. New Vision and Policy Recommendations for Nutrition-Oriented Food Security in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2019, 52(18): 3097-3107.
[3]	HUANG ZeYing,SUN JunMao,GUO YanZhi,WANG XiuLi,MA YunQian. Influence of Farmers’ Farm Production Diversity on Their Own Dietary Diversity and Nutritional Health [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2019, 52(18): 3108-3121.
[4]	TANG ChaoHua , ZHAO QingYu , ZHANG Kai , LI Shuang , QIN YuChang , ZHANG JunMin . Promoting the Development of Nutritionally-Guided Agriculture in Research and Development of Selenium-Enriched Agri-Products in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2019, 52(18): 3122-3133.
[5]	CHEN Yin-jun, YI Xiao-yan, FANG Lin-na, YANG Rui-zhen. Analysis of Cultivated Land and Grain Production Potential in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2016, 49(6): 1117-1131.
[6]	LI Bao-guo, HUANG Feng. Defining the Baselines for China Agricultural Water Use in Green and Blue Water Approach [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2015, 48(17): 3493-3503.
[7]	SHI Wen-Jiao, TAO Fu-Lu. Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Africa: A Review of Impacts and Adaptations [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2014, 47(16): 3157-3166.
[8]	CHEN Wen-Fu, ZHANG Wei-Ming, MENG Jun. Advances and Prospects in Research of Biochar Utilization in Agriculture [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2013, 46(16): 3324-3333.
[9]	ZHANG Wei-Jian, CHEN Jin, XU Zhi-Yu, CHEN Chang-Qing, DENG Ai-Xing, QIAN Chun-Rong, DONG Wen-Jun. Actual Responses and Adaptations of Rice Cropping System to Global Warming in Northeast China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(7): 1265-1273.
[10]	LI Chen,YAN Xiao-hong,YANG Jie,YANG Qing,WEI Wen-hui . Plant Artificial Chromosome: The Vector for the Next Generation of Genetic Engineering [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2011, 44(4): 657-663 .
[11]	YU Qiang-Yi, WU Wen-Bin, TANG Hua-Jun, CHEN You-Qi, YANG Peng. A Food Security Assessment in APEC Based on Grain Productivity [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2011, 44(13): 2838-2848 .
[12]	TIAN Yun-lu,ZHENG Jian-chu,ZHANG Bin,CHEN Jin,DONG Wen-jun,YANG Fei,ZHANG Wei-jian . Design of Free Air Temperature Increasing (FATI) System for Upland with Three Diurnal Warming Scenarios and Their Effects [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2010, 43(18): 3724-3731 .
[13]	LU Liang-shu, XU Shi-wei. Expectation of the Research Projection of China Grain and Food Safety Development Strategy in 2020 [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2007, 40(增刊): 2931-2940.
[14]	. Developing the agro-grassland system to insure food security of China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2007, 40(3): 614-621 .
[15]	,. Development of Potato Industry and Food Security in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2005, 38(02): 358-362 .