中国耕地资源与粮食增产潜力分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2016.06.008

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】The purpose of this study is to reveal grain production potential and Cultivated land resources and provide a reference for national food security decisions.【Method】The time series forecasting method was used to forecast the arable land area, cropping index, food and non-food crops area ratio, crop planting structure in 2020 by using the cultivated land area and grain production series data in 1980/1996-2013 as sampled and based on the results of the second survey of land resources. Then the potential of the nation's grain yield increase was analyzed from the multi-angle of view the high-yield demonstration area, the unit-yield level in variety regional test. 【Result】By 2020, the national cultivated land area will be 1.32×10⁸ hm², grain crops and non-crops area will account for 66:34, grain crops acreage will be 1.12×10⁸ hm². The potential of national grain production will be 68.9% from high-yield demonstration area and 35.5% from regional trial variety. By 2020, the potential of national grain production will reach 6.34×10⁸-6.53×10⁸ t ,with 5.3%-8.5% increase compared to 2013.【Conclusion】In the future, the cultivated land and grain crops area will be decreased, but the national total grain production capacity will be continued show a upward trend with the pulling of crop yield increasing.

Key words: cultivated land resources, multiple cropping index, grain production potential, food security, China

CHEN Yin-jun, YI Xiao-yan, FANG Lin-na, YANG Rui-zhen. Analysis of Cultivated Land and Grain Production Potential in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2016, 49(6): 1117-1131.

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