全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响 Ⅺ.气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区变化特征

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2015.10.006

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】 In the context of climate change, China needs to address critical challenges relating to the agricultural development and food security. Wheat is one of China's three major grain crops, which plays an important role in China’s food security. The variation of potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zone of winter wheat in China under climate change was studied, which would provide an important scientific reference for the rational distribution of winter wheat. 【Method】 In this research, the ‘correction step by step’ method was used to calculate the potential light-temperature yield of winter wheat in each year. The year 1981 was taken as a time node and divided the period 1961-2010 into two sub-periods. Combined with the indices of the potential light-temperature yield level and the stability, the variation of the potential light-temperature yield level and the stability zones were investigated. In summary, the variation of the boundaries and distributions of the potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zones of winter wheat in China under climate change was studied. 【Result】 Compared with the period 1961-1980, during 1981-2010, the percentage of the very high and high potential yield zones in the study area increased by 6.33% and 7.42%, respectively, but the percentage of moderately high and marginally high potential yield zones decreased by 10.50% and 3.24%, respectively. During 1981 to 2010, the percentage of the very stable potential yield zone in the study area decreased by 25.76%, but the percentage of stable, moderately stable and marginally potential yield zones increased by 12.09%, 10.34% and 3.31%, respectively. The boundary of the very suitable zones moved northward and westward. The southern boundary of the very suitable zones moved northward from the central part of Anhui Province to the northwest portion of Shandong Province, and the western boundary of the very suitable zones extended westward from the southwest part of Shanxi Province to the northwest part of Shaanxi Province; The boundary of the suitable zones moved northeastward, and the maximum spatial displacement was in the eastern part of Sichuang Province to the southwest part of Shaanxi Province, moving by about 835.63 km. The spatial displacement of the potential suitable cultivation zone of winter wheat caused the changes of the winter wheat actual cropping area. Compared with the period 1961-1980, during 1981-2010, the percentage of the very suitable and suitable zones of winter wheat in the study area decreased by 4.49% and 4.75%, respectively, while the percentage of moderately suitable and marginally suitable zones increased by 7.17% and 2.06%, respectively. The potential yield per unit area increased by about 513 kg·hm^-2 in average in each suitable cultivation zone. However, the total potential yield reduced by 1 504×10⁴ t in the study area compared with 1961-1980 because of the reduction of the area in the very suitable and suitable zones of winter wheat, which caused the total potential yield in these two cultivation zones reduced by 5 108×10⁴ t and 5 896×10⁴ t, respectively. 【Conclusion】 Under the background of climate change, the percentage of the very high and high potential light-temperature yield zones of winter wheat increased, while the very stable potential light-temperature yield zone decreased. The very suitable and suitable zones of winter wheat in the study area decreased because of the decrease of stable; the boundary of the very suitable zone moved northward and westward, and the boundary of the suitable zone moved northeastward. The potential light-temperature yield per unit area increased because of the spatial displacement of the potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zone, which was beneficial to the improvement of the winter wheat yield. However, due to the reduction of the area in the very suitable and suitable zones of winter wheat, the total potential yield of winter wheat in China reduced. In the regions where the suitability of potential light-temperature yield has changed, the wheat production should be combined with the irrigation to ensure the high and stable yield.

Key words: climate change, China, winter wheat, potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zone

SUN Shuang, YANG Xiao-guang, ZHAO Jin, CHEN Fu. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅺ. The Variation of Potential Light-temperature Suitable Cultivation Zone of Winter Wheat in China Under Climate Change[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2015, 48(10): 1926-1941.

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