关键词: 谷子, 县域, ArcGIS, 时空变化, 贡献率, 重心迁移, 比较优势

Abstract:

【Objective】 Foxtail millet (Setariaitalica (L.) P. Beauv.) is rich in nutrition, has a short growth period, and is resistant to drought and barren. Planting foxtail millet plays an important role in optimizing the agricultural planting structure and promoting farmers’ income in arid and semi-arid areas. It was of great significance for the sustainable development of foxtail millet production to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and regional advantages of foxtail millet production in China. 【Method】 Based on the provincial and county production statistics of foxtail millet from 1985 to 2015, the spatial and temporal variation rules of foxtail millet production in China were analyzed by using the yield contribution rate, center of gravity migration, comparative advantage index and other indicators.【Result】 In the last thirty years, the sown area of foxtail millet in China decreased from 3.318×10 ⁶hm ² to 7.88×10 ⁵ hm ² and then recovered to 8.39×10 ⁵hm ². The yield increased from 1 801.2 kg·hm ^-2 to 2 342.9 kg·hm ^-2. The area contribution rate of total production change was 80.3%, the yield contribution rate was 18.4%, and the yield contribution rate gradually increased. The center of foxtail millet production in China varied little in recent 30 years. The advantageous production areas were stable in the midwest part of northeast China, the north-central part of the North China Plain and the southeastern part of the middle-low plateau area in the north, which were concentrated in the counties bordering Inner Mongolia and the three provinces in northeast China, most of Hebei, northwest Henan, central Shandong, most of Shanxi, northern Shaanxi, eastern Gansu and central Ningxia. In the last thirty years, the yield increased in the North China Plain, the northeast plain and some counties in the northwest area, but the sown area decreased significantly, which made these regions show efficiency advantage and scale disadvantage. After 2000, the sown area of Jilin Tongyu, Inner Mongolia Aohan banner and some counties in Shanxi province in the middle and low plateau area in the north were recovered. The counties with scale advantage and efficiency disadvantage were concentrated in Shaanxi and parts of north-central Shanxi in Loess Plateau area.【Conclusion】 In the past 30 years, the sown area of millet decreased first and then increased, the concentration of foxtail millet production in China had been increasing, the advantageous production areas tended to be stable, and the yield had been gradually increased. The summer foxtail millet replaced by summer corn in North China Plain was difficult to recover, and the foxtail millet production in the midwest regions of northeast China, the northern agro-pastoral interleaving areas and the areas along Taihang mountain had the potential to recover. The progress of foxtail millet breeding, cultivation technology and production processing machinery were very important for improving the quality and efficiency of foxtail millet production and realizing industrialization development.

Key words: foxtail millet, county, ArcGIS, spatio-temporal changes, contribution rate, migration of center of gravity, comparative advantage