Scientia Agricultura Sinica

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Comparison Study on the Level of International Agricultural Modernization Based on the Method of Generation Gap of Industry Elements

HU ZhiQuan, ZHU DianXiao, XIN Ling, HOU LiWei, WANG DongYang

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2018, 51 (7): 1412-1420. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2018.07.018

Abstract （252）

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【Objective】Agriculture modernization is an important part of achieving the ‘four Modernization Synchronization’ development in China. Gap analysis on agricultural modernization development between China and developed countries is helpful to figure out the global positioning of Chinese agricultural modernization. 【Method】 The related references sourced from FAO promoted that agricultural modernization development was a gradual principle process, which was companied with a trend of serious of basic character change. The acknowledgement of the inner principle of agricultural modernization development was the necessary precondition among international comparison. On that base, the paper promoted two core hypothesis, which contained that agricultural modernization development had the common trait, similar historical steps with corresponding characters among different countries; core index of changing rate were same in the steps of agricultural modernization according to different countries, were the base of generation gap to study the comparison of international agricultural modernization development. Therefore, the formulation of generation gap among different index was as follows: D_j=Y_a-W_jb±（X_a-X_jb）/X_jbBased on the related references at home and aboard, a comprehensive index system was built to compare the agricultural modernization development, which was composed of four one-level indexes (Agricultural Economic Benefit, Transformation of Economic Structure, Rural Economic and Social Development and Agricultural sustainable development) and ten second-level indexes. The paper focused on typical countries such as USA, UK, Japan, India, Brazil, South Africa and China to make international comparison, of which, the started early agricultural modernization in the USA, the UK, and Japan could be taken as a long-time comparison in agricultural modernization development due to their historical traits in agricultural modernization development. Meanwhile, Brazil, India and South Africa could be selected as typical countries in comparison, for that the above countries were all belong to developing countries in high speed development, with the many similar opportunities, challenge, policy making and lessons.【Result】The current level of agricultural modernization development in China acted properly as the same level in the end of 1960s to the beginning of 1980s in the USA and the UK, and the beginning of 1990s’ in Japan, which had the similar developing steps in India and Brazil. With respect of sub-index, the unequilibrium agricultural modernization in China was caused by the diversification and low coupling of the core index, which restricted the overall progress of agricultural modernization.【Conclusion】The generation gap analysis was available for evaluate agricultural modernization development, which was easy access to the international comparison and could be used as a tool to analyze agricultural modernization and appraisal agricultural modernization development.

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Regional Differences and Influential Factors of the Development of China’s Green Food Industry

HUANG Man-yu, PENG Hu-feng

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2014, 47 (23): 4745-4753. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2014.23.019

Abstract （407）

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【Objective】 This paper is to evaluate the development level of green food industry of the 30 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government of China, and to study the regional differences. It also aims to analyze the different influential effects of the factors on the level of the development of green food industry in different regions. The conclusions of the paper help to comprehensively understand the regional development of green food industry and give references to the formulation of regional policies that aim to promote the development of green food industry. 【Method】 The principal component analysis was used to evaluate the regional development level of green food industry. Clustering analysis was adopted to categorize the regions on the basis of the development level of green food industry. Grey correlation analysis was implemented to calculate the influential degree of the influential factors on the development of green food industry in different regions. 【Result】 The 30 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government were categorized into three groups. The developed group includes Shandong and other 10 regions, the developing group includes Shaanxi and other 7 regions, and the under-developed group includes Chongqing and other 10 regions. The development level of green food industry relates closely to the development degree of regional economy, the correlation index amounts to 70%. The influential effect of market demand and industry structure decreases with the decreasing of the development level of green food industry, the grey correlation grade decreases from 0.298 to 0.189 and 0.233 to 0.125, respectively. While the influential effect of resource conditions and policy support increases with the decreasing of the development level of green food industry, the grey correlation grade increases from 0.125 to 0.218 and 0.183 to 0.220, respectively.【Conclusion】The development of green food industry relates closely with the development level of regional economy. The influential effect of the five factors (market demand, resource condition, industry structure, related industry and policy support) on the development of green food industry is various in different regions, and it proves that the focus of policy should be different in different regions according to the influential differences.

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Study on Lawmaking About Fertilizer Use and Management in China

PENG Shi-qi

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2014, 47 (20): 4109-4116. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2014.20.019

Abstract （409）

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Fertilizer is the most important means of production in agricultural production. But the excessive fertilization and fake fertilizer on market bring the problems of the reduction of agriculture output, quality safety of agricultural productions, environmental pollution and even personal safety occasionally happened in China. Fertilizer legislation has become a calling under the wide public concern. In order to protect the environment and farmers' interests, many countries have fertilizer laws or related regulations with contents of the fertilizer use and management. They contain with fertilization according to the result of soil test, fertilizer nutrient standards, the fertilizers limited index in the nitrate vulnerable area, use time and quantity standards of organic fertilizer in the water resources protection area, farmers are in duty bound to record the fertilizer use and so on. The users must manage their fertilize use in accordance with the law. China has not a unified supervision and management system in fertilizer management. The fertilizer using rules and standards in agriculture production are by administrative management and project promotion. Absence of fertilizer use management has the serious influence to the sustainable utilization of agricultural resources and ecological environment protection and agricultural production. Fertilizer lawmaking including fertilizer use management has become the urgent needs. Some relevant laws in China have stipulated the responsibilities for the administrative departments in fertilizer use management. But more terms are guidance provisions without clear department’s duties, fertilizer use standard and limit, compulsory means and the enforced measures to fertilizer user. The legislation in fertilizer use management regulation should grasp three key points: (1) through product admittance system control fertilizer varieties and quality; (2) through special standards and environmental requirements control the quantity and period of the fertilizer use. (3) clear subject liability and establishing responsibilities and rights of all sides. This paper made a proposal concerning the legislation contents in fertilizer use and management including six aspects: (1) making clear access and exit mechanism about fertilizer products in agriculture use; (2) making clear the responsibilities and rights of the management body; (3) making clear and definiting the responsibilities and rights of the enterprises, dealers, the users; (4) stipulating the behaviors of the service organizations and individuals in providing technical service activities; (5) making clear and defining the security system and mechanism of management; (6) making clear and defining fertilizer quality standards, the use limit, use time and other key standards. Through fertilizer use and management legislation, fertilizer producers, agencies and users must comply with the regulation. It will promote fertilizer use management from administrative management to follow the laws and regulations. Based on the fertilizer use management rules, fertilizer production rules, sales behavior rules and punishment rules should be made more clearly so as to constitute a complete fertilizer law.

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Cited: Baidu(3)

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Study on Construction of Agricultural Informatization Taking Shandong Province as a Case

RUAN Huai-jun, FENG Wen-jie, TANG Yan, ZHAO Jia, LI Dao-liang

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2014, 47 (20): 4117-4127. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2014.20.020

Abstract （397）

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【Objective】 Informatization is the general developing trend in modern world, and also the important force to promote the economic and social reform of China. As one of the biggest agricultural provinces in China, the development of Shandong agriculture is increasingly constrained by resources, so it is urgent to upgrade and transform the agricultural industry. As the first demonstration province for rural and agricultural informatization in China, Shandong Province has made a prior attempt on promoting agricultural modernization by informatization. In this paper, the practice and effect of agricultural informatization development in Shandong were analyzed and summarized. Based on these, the huge effect of informatization on modern agriculture was further verified, and the referential empirical modes were summarized in order to provide references for the other provinces. 【Method】 The methods of field visit and panel discussions were used to know about the current situation and existing problems in the development of agricultural informatization in Shandong, and the quantitative research was carried out based on the data obtained from investigation. So the practice and effect of agricultural informatization construction of Shandong were mastered in a view of macro-perspective, the pointed policy measures were also put forward for the agricultural informatization. 【Results】 The construction of comprehensive provincial service platform for rural and agricultural informatization, integration of Three Networks information service high speed channel, grassroots information service system and demonstration project were conducted in Shandong Province, and also the exploration of long-term mechanism. At present, the comprehensive service platform has been preliminarily constructed and commissioned, and the constructed high speed channel is convenient with wide coverage; there were more than 2000 grassroots service stations were constructed within the whole province to carry out scientific information service, e-commerce and agricultural internet of things demonstration and so on in vegetables, fruit trees, domestic animals and domestic fowls, aquatic products, and other important industries. A plenty of informatization achievements have been popularized and applied, and the long-term mechanism has been constructed, thus, the modern agricultural development, new village construction and the integrative development of informatization with modernization of agriculture were promoted. 【Conclusion】 The agricultural informatization is a key support for the modern agricultural development, a significant embodiment of agricultural modernization level, an important content of agricultural modernization construction and also the key action to enhance the agricultural efficiency, increase farmers’ income and develop rural economy. It is the optimal path to develop agricultural informatization and realize Four-Modernization-Synchronization in Shandong Province even the whole nation through informatization to promote agricultural modernization.

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Cited: Baidu(12)

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Study on Value Loss Evaluation Model and Compensation Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversion

REN Ping, WU Tao, ZHOU Jie-Ming

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2014, 47 (4): 786-795. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2014.04.019

Abstract （362）

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【Objective】The most serious problem associated with the cultivated land protection project in China is the long-term neglect of ecological value and social value existing within cultivated land. The value loss along with the cultivated land conversion is much beyond the economic value estimated with traditional perspective. Based on such understanding, this research is considering the deficiency of theory for understanding cultivated land conversion, and the insufficiency of comprehensive research on the scientific questions associated with cultivated land protection/conversion, such as the value constitute, the system, and the research method, are the core problems when studying cultivated land loss and conversion. Such questions are the basic theoretic issues that must be understood. To realize quantitative evaluation and simulation of value loss happening with cultivated land conversion, this paper established a value evaluation method and model for cultivated land, so as to provide a theoretical and practical reference for cultivated land protection and compensation policy.【Method】Based on the value classification method for cultivated land resources, income capitalization approach, equivalent replacement method, and market value method were applied to establishing a comprehensive evaluation model incorporating resource economic value, social value, and ecological service value. The economic value of cultivated land resource is based on through income capitalization approach, by which a serious of yield variance weights indices for different crops are modified. The social value is estimated by equivalent replacement method, in which the basic security value is replaced by the correction parameter of urban endowment insurance, the wage level for farmers’ employment is replaced by the productivity effect of agricultural labor, and the social stability value is replaced by the regional food supply-and-demand difference parameter. Finally, based on the amendment of unit ecological equivalence factor, the economical service value of cultivated land resource is calculated by market value method, through which the correlation between the economic value of ecological service equivalence factor and the food average yield per unit area is considered. 【Result】 The evaluation model objectively restored the monetization value for cultivated land resources. The entire approach is scientific and also feasible. Besides, the model is regional-cross for the evaluation and simulation functions can be applied to different areas-it possesses favorable universality and applicability. The evaluation results by such model also showed that for Sichuan province the cultivated land protection value in 2010 was 1 million and 22.85 thousand yuan per hm2 , of which the economic value, social value and ecological service value account for 5.74%, 64.17% and 30.09% respectively. (3) Taking 2010 as the basic analysis year, the total cultivated land protection value for the entire Sichuan province in 2010 was 825 trillion and 55.2 billion yuan, and the value loss happening with the non-agriculture conversion was 43.612 billion yuan, which accounts for 2.5% of Sichuan’s GDP.【Conclusion】According to the response mode at micro level for different interest agents associated with cultivated land conversion, the function by the central government should not exclude from the compensation for value loss caused by cultivated land conversion (protection). The central government should accept the responsibility of ecological service value and social stability value for cultivated land protection, based on which a security fund will be created to support the cultivated land protectors. Meanwhile the local governments and enterprises should take the responsibility of value compensation for cultivated land value loss. There is a regional difference in cultivated land resource value. So, it is an important technical issue for construct a value assessment and amendment system for cultivated land resource in future work. Such evaluation methods and the results derived from such research could be applied to practical evaluation of value loss for cultivated land conversion. The research results could supply a theoretical foundation to create a security fund as the central government’s responsibility. Such results also will offer technical supports for framing a concrete compensation standard. Furthermore, this research will provide a new perspective for constituting the compensation mechanism of cultivated land conversion, and promote the upgrade of cultivated land protection from the traditional mode and the establishment of a new compensation mechanism for cultivated land protection.

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Cited: Baidu(10)

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Analysis of International Competitive Ability of Seed Industry in China Based on the Market Share

WANG Lei, LIU Li-Jun, SONG Min

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2014, 47 (4): 796-805. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2014.04.020

Abstract （466）

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【Objective】Seed industry is a national strategic and basic core industry. Seed industry competitiveness not only determines the development of the seed industry itself , but also determines the safety of agricultural industrialization. Nowadays, the competition of market share has become the core of the modern seed industry in international competition. Therefore, the study aims at investigating the competitiveness of China’s seed industry in the international seed market share competition.【Method】In the perspective of market share, this paper tries to illustrate and analyze the competitiveness of China’s seed industry by applying the index of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and export quality indices (QC), by using the data from ISF, WTO and China Customs statistics. 【Result】Findings from statistical analysis show that China’s seed industry accessed less abroad market share and lost more domestic market share. Export markets are mainly concentrated in Asia (59.04%), the large markets in Africa (0.83%) and South America (0.18%) are occupied a little. China’s seed industry has little competitive species, in comparison, rice seeds and vegetable seeds now occupy more market share, they are all at around $ 100 million, while the global seed market demand for wheat, corn, soybean and other seeds occupy less market shares and they are less than $1 million. Overall, China’s seed industry is less competitive. The result of RCA clarifies that RCA index of China's seed industry is low and far less than the value of evaluation criteria 0.8, and has a large difference compared with the United States and the Netherlands. China’s seed industry has no comparative advantages, the competitiveness is weak but the uptrend is obvious. Relatively speaking, the competitiveness of vegetable varieties is higher than crop varieties. The result of QC shows that QC index of China’s seed industry is higher than the value of evaluation criteria 1, and higher than the United States and the Netherlands which is the powerful nation in seed industry. The various types of export seeds, except wheat seed and soybean seed, currently have relatively high added value, and a certain competitive advantage in the aspect of quality.【Conclusion】In the competition of the international seed market share, the competiveness of China’s seed industry is weak but rising as a whole. The added value is high as well. China’s seed industry should accelerate and consolidate the ability of expanding and controlling market share in order to cope with the fierce competition of international seed market.

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Cited: Baidu(3)

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The Impact of Hybrid Maize Technology Adoption on Farmers’ Livelihoods in Mountains—Evidence from Southwest Yunnan

WU Hai-Tao, CHEN Yu-Ping, ZHANG Yong-Min

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (24): 5228-5236. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.24.017

Abstract （350）

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【Objective】 The impact of hybrid maize technology on farmers’ income, livelihood strategy and income disparity was analyzed by employing rural household survey data from mountain regions of Southwest Yunnan. 【Method】Using Feasible Generalized Least Square and Regress-base Decomposition approach, this paper studied the determinants of farmers’ income and livelihoods, and estimated the contribution of adoption of hybrid maize technology to income disparity. 【Result】The adoption of hybrid maize technology had a significant positive effect on farmers’ income. Rural households net income and food crop income increased by 0.5% and 2.5%, respectively, when the area of hybrid maize increased by 1%. The effect of adoption of technology on income inequality was just 0.005. 【Conclusion】In the mountain regions of Southwest Yunnan, hybrid maize technology is an appropriate technology, which can increase farmers’ income and not worsen the income disparity among farmers.

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Analysis on the Spatial-Temporal Features and Developing Trend and Effects of Agricultural Geographic Agglomeration in China

DENG Zong-Bing-12, FENG Yong-Gang-2, ZHANG Jun-Liang-2, WANG Ju-2, TIAN Wei-Bo-2

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (22): 4816-4828. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.22.020

Abstract （451）

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【Objective】 This paper is to acquaint the spatial-temporal features, the developing trend of geographic agglomeration and its effects of crop farming. 【Method】 The degree of geographic agglomeration of crop farming was analyzed by comprehensive application of regional Gini index, industry agglomeration rate, regional average agglomeration rate and space correlation index. The agglomeration effects were analyzed by introducing the degree of agglomeration into the C-D production function model. 【Result】 It is found that crop farming generally has significant geographic agglomeration features which differ a lot among different industries. Geographic agglomeration of crop farming tends to be enhanced continuously, which has obvious stage characteristics. The geographic agglomeration features of crop farming are more and more specialized and flaked. The geographic agglomeration of crop farming has a significant positive effect on the industry growth. 【Conclusion】 China should strive to enhance and improve building infrastructure, ameliorate regional management and services, create a favorable external environment for the development of agriculture agglomeration; promoting agricultural specialization and regionalization process should be based on comparative advantages.

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Cited: Baidu(8)

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Competitive or Complementary? The Adoption Trend of Starch-Based Syrups and Sugar in Food and Beverage Manufacturing

SI Wei-1, ZHU Hai-Yan-12

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (22): 4829-4836. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.22.021

Abstract （423）

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【Objective】 The objective of this paper is to investigate the likely adoption rate of starch-based syrups (SBS) in food and beverage manufacturing, project the demand growing trend of SBS and assess its economic implications for major sweetener industry participants. 【Method】 The logistic growth model that is based on the theory of innovation adoption was emploged to investigate the time pattern of adoption for SBS, and the demand model was used to project the demand for sugar and SBS. 【Result】 China’s sugar and sweetener demand are still at an expanding phase. The market shares of SBS would continue to increase rapidly about ten years with a lower growth rate compared to the previous decade. The growing SBS consumption will decrease the growth rate of demand for sugar, and change the caloric sweetener market structure which is dominated by sugar. The results also show that the decreased manufacturing costs due to the use of SBS should be passed to consumer in lower retail prices. This would make sugar demand more elasticity. The impact account for increasing adoption SBS in food and beverage manufacturing on corn market will be small. 【Conclusion】 The consumption growth of SBS ultimately depends on decreased manufacturing costs due to the use of SBS. Under current market conditions, SBS and sugar are complementary to some extent, rather than simply competitive.

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Temporal and Spatial Changes in Crop Patterns of Binxian County in Heilongjiang Province

ZHANG Li, WU Wen-Bin, YANG Peng, TANG Hua-Jun, ZHOU Qing-Bo, LI Zheng-Guo

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (15): 3227-3237. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.15.018

Abstract （541）

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【Objective】 Crop choice analysis from the individual farmer’s perspective requires a fundamental exploration on spatial-temporal characteristics of local crop pattern dynamics. This study primarily investigated such characteristics at Binxian County in order to provide insights to the subsequent driving force analysis of crop structure and pattern dynamics. 【Method】 By using Binxian County Statistical Dataset 1996-2000, mathematical statistics and GIS-based spatial analysis methods were adopted to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of major grain crops and cash crops in the local agricultural land system. 【Result】Analysis shows that the total cropland sowing area increased by 22.86% from 1996 to 2010, which is mainly contributed by the increase of grain crops. The sowing area of grain crops expanded by 32.80%, while the cash crops shrank by 52.84%. The ratio of grain crops to cash crops raised from 88:12 to 96:4. Maize area received a steadily increase by 73.82%, while by contrast, soybean and rice decreased by 1.05% and 29.78%, respectively. Although maize area distributed uniformly across the county, soybean area mainly distributed at the southeast and rice area mainly located at the north and west of the region. 【Conclusion】 The exploration on spatial-temporal characteristics of local crop pattern dynamics is necessary for the subsequent driving force analysis and it will help to provide scientific ways to adjust crop structure and to increase grain productivity.

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Cited: Baidu(10)

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Impact of Natural-Environmental Factors on the Crop Choices of Households — A Case Study in Binxian County of Heilongjiang Province

LIU Zhen-Huan, YANG Peng, WU Wen-Bin, LI Zheng-Guo, TANG Peng-Qin, LI Zhi-Peng, YU Qiang-Yi, XIA Tian, TANG Hua-Jun

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (15): 3238-3247. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.15.019

Abstract （482）

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【Objective】 How famers change crops to adapt to climate and natural disasters, were studied in this paper in order to provides a basis for government policy-making.【Method】Questionnaire method was used to sample the perception of natural environmental change and crop choice of household. All of 384 farmers were being interviewed by a household face-to-face interview in Binxian County, Northeast China. Frequency method was used to analyze the impact of perception of climate change and natural disasters on famers’ crop choice in the past 30 years.【Result】The results show that climate change, frequency of natural disasters and crop yield could significantly affect famer crop choice. In famers’ attitude, crop yield was the first important factor when they changed crop, followed by climate change, less importance of the frequency of natural disasters. However, the importance of climate change and natural disasters will be improved when they change rice to maize because of crop growth closed to natural environment factor. Replacement of crop types and varieties and adjustment of farming season were the more popular behavior that farmers adapt to natural environmental factors. The trends of farmers perception of the natural environmental change were the same with the actual trends, it affect famers to take the initiative to change the type of crop.【Conclusion】In order to improve famers adaption to natural environmental change, the government should improve farmers active adaptive behavior, guide the famers to improve the ability to response to climate change and natural disasters, and more high-level regional agriculture planning and policy guidance are also needed in the future.

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Impact Mechanism of Socio-Economic Factors on the Crop Choices of Households in Northeast China—A Case Study in Binxian County of Heilongjiang Province

SHI Shu-Qin-1, LI Zheng-Guo-2, TANG Hua-Jun-2, YANG Peng-2, WU Wen-Bin-2, TIAN Yuan-Yuan-1, XIA Tian-2, LIU Zhen-Huan-2, YU Qiang-Yi-2

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (15): 3248-3256. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.15.020

Abstract （408）

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【Objective】 The objective of this research is to explore the impact mechanisms of socio-economic factors on the crops choices of households, and to provide a basis for optimization of cropping structure and policy-making. 【Method】 Taking Binxian County in Heilongjiang province as the study area, this study randomly conducted face-to-face interviews on 384 households, and used statistical frequency method provided by SPSS software to investigate the impacts of socio-economic factors including production inputs, net income of crops, crop sale, agriculture technology popularization and agricultural policy on the farming initiative and crop choice. 【Result】 The results showed that to a greater extent, increase of crops net income, the promotion of new varieties and new technologies as well as agricultural subsidies and guidance policies, can greatly promote the farming initiative. Crop net income is the primary factor affecting farmer’s crop choices, followed by agricultural subsidies and guide policy. 【Conclusion】Several ways such as increasing infrastructure investment, raising crop prices, stabilizing purchasing channels, increasing investment in agricultural R & D and services, can be considered to improve farming initiative, optimize cropping structure and increase farmers income.

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Influencing Mechanism of Family Attributes on Choosing Crops —A Case Study in Binxian County of Heilongjiang Province

XIA Tian, WU Wen-Bin, TANG Hua-Jun, ZHOU Qing-Bo, YANG Peng, LI Zheng-Guo, LIU Zhen-Huan, YU Qiang-Yi

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (15): 3257-3265. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.15.021

Abstract （448）

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【Objective】As an important basis for agricultural policy adjustment, famers choice crops is always concerned by scholars. Based on the survey data on farmers, the influence of famers’ family attributes on their choice of crops were studied. The article aims to quantify the influence mechanism and guide famer’s direction to adjustment of choice of crops. 【Method】Binxian County of China’s Heilongjiang Province was selected as the study area. There are 3 typical and representative towns containing 384 households famers were selected for investigation and research. The questionnaire data were standardized and imported into SPSS statistical analysis system. By using the univariate and multivariate analysis, the influence of famers’ family attributes on choices of planting rice, wheat, maize, soybeans and other crops were studied. 【Result】The result of analysis showed that the major factors affecting famers choosing planting crops are famers’ age, education level, family labor force, family size, land types, and so on. These factors on famers respectively to choose and change crops have the significant effect. 【Conclusion】 The actual process of crops planting was impacted by the amount of work to grow crops, the level of agricultural knowledge needed to grow crops, planting environmental requirements or capital investment output ratio and other factors. These factors led to rural households attribute corresponding attribute factors for famers choice behavior directly.

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An Agent-Based Model for Simulating Crop Pattern Dynamics at a Regional Scale: Model Framework

YU Qiang-Yi, WU Wen-Bin, TANG Hua-Jun, YANG Peng, LI Zheng-Guo, XIA Tian, LIU Zhen-Huan, ZHOU Qing-Bo

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (15): 3266-3276. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.15.022

Abstract （429）

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【Objective】 Crop pattern is a key element in agricultural land systems other than land use and land cover. Crop pattern dynamics take place very frequently, but they are not always easily observable, making many difficulties for analysis. In this paper the authors are trying to conceptualize an agent-based model to simulate crop pattern dynamics at a regional scale (CroPaDy). 【Method】Both of the conceptual model and the computational model of CroPaDy are designed strictly following the ODD Protocol proposed by Grimm et al. (2010) and the Generalized Framework for Parameterization of ABM proposed by Smajgl et al., (2011). 【Result】 The conceptual model of CroPaDy is designed as a closed-loop comprised by driving forces, decision making processes, and consequences. In driving force analysis, the authors focus on the internal and external factors that influencing farmer’s decision-making instead of the macro level biophysical–socioeconomic drivers for land use and land cover change. The state variables are set to be updated annually, incorporating feedbacks in any decision-making circle. The computational model links three sub-models named agents generating module, agent simplifying and classifying module, and agent decision-making module, respectively. Common methods including Monte Carlo and Utility Function are used in model parameterization. In addition, factor analysis is applied for replacing cluster analysis in forming farmer typologies. 【Conclusion】 The authors conceptualize the framework of CroPaDy model to present the interactions between human actors and their environment in agricultural land systems. Crop pattern dynamics, therefore, can be modeled by capturing farmer’s crop choice. However, due to the limited page space, model validation and the scenarios-based application are subjected to a series of companion papers that are about to be submitted independently.

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Cited: Baidu(20)

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Reflections on Some Issues Regarding the Chinese Agricultural Science and Technology Development in the Post-Financial Crisis Era —Attaches Great Importance to the Original Innovation, and Competing for the Commanding Heights of the Frontier Field in Agricultural Science and Technology

XUE Liang, MEI Xu-Rong, WANG Ji-Min, WANG Fei-Jie, LU Jian-Zhong, WU Jing-Xue, NIE Feng-Ying, SHEN Yin-Shu, ZHANG Yu, XIA Xu

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (13): 2808-2820. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.13.018

Abstract （622）

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After the United States of America financial crisis erupted in 2008, followed with the European debt crisis, emerging economies have been impacted severely and world economic growth became slower. Historical experience shows that the economic crisis is often pregnant with a new revolution of science and technology. Under the background of economic globalization, the recovery and prosperity of economy is up to the development and innovation of science and technology. As a basic industry, the progress of agriculture and agricultural science and technology has an important effect on the development of Chinese economy. Therefore, we should fully grasp the opportunity of the agricultural science and technology development brought by the financial crisis, pay more attention to the improvement of the scientific and technological original innovation ability, follow the law of agricultural research, allot optimally the agricultural basic scientific and technological resources, strengthen the agricultural basic research and high technology research, promote the development and research level of agricultural core technology, accelerate the improvement of scientific evaluation system, deploy a number of prospective science and technology projects, strengthen science and technology strategic reserve capacity, seize the commanding heights of the agricultural science and technology forefront field on the biotechnology, information technology and advanced manufacturing technology and promote the development of modern agriculture.

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Reflections on Some Issues Regarding the Chinese Agricultural Science and Technology Development in the Post-Financial Crisis Era — Master the Compete Initiative of Agricultural Science and Technology, and to Meet a New Round of World Science and Technology Revolution

XUE Liang, MEI Xu-Rong, WANG Ji-Min, WANG Fei-Jie, LU Jian-Zhong, WU Jing-Xue, NIE Feng-Ying, SHEN Yin-Shu, ZHANG Yu, XIA Xu

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (13): 2821-2832. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.13.019

Abstract （597）

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Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the world economic growth became slower. The economic development and industrial transformation have been rethought, and strategic emerging industry become the focus of investment, because of the historical mission of leading the new round revolution of science and technology and getting rid of the economic crisis. Agricultural science and technology development in China needs to seize the opportunity, deal with the international challenges and strive to master the world agricultural development initiative, through the strengthening of independent innovation, the support for enterprise technical development, the strengthening of institution-enterprise union, the construction of technical standards and the development of low carbon green agricultural science and technology. Cultivate actively modern new industry growth point such as modern biological seed industry, modern equipment industry, green inputs industry, biological energy industry, agricultural product processing industry, logistics industry, desert and ocean agriculture. Stimulate the innovation vitality of agricultural science and technology personnel, leading the development direction of agricultural science and technology, and realize important transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture by deepening system reform in agricultural science and technology, establishing the scientific talent evaluation system, guaranteeing the basic scientific research funds, executing “politics research apart”, establishing innovative research value, building an innovative academic environment and cultural atmosphere.

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A New Approach to Assess Crop Yield Risk Based on Mixed Source of Data

WANG Ke, ZHANG Qiao

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (5): 1054-1060. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.05.021

Abstract （755）

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【Objective】 The objective of this study is to address the defects of conventional crop risk assessment approach and to assess the crop yield risk more accurately. 【Method】 A new approach based on mixed source of data has been proposed and used to assess the yield risk for maize, wheat, peanut, rice and soybean of Northeast (NE) China in this paper. 【Result】 It is found that the traditional approach based on yield data does underestimate the real risk of farmers’ and the bias magnitude are influenced by the crop varieties and planting location. The proposed approach can not only assess the crop yield risk accurately but also can assess the crop risk due to specific disaster. 【Conclusion】 The proposed approach to assess crop yield risk is flexible and has more advantage than the traditional ones.

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Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Different Rice Cultivation Ways Adopted by Famers:Empirical Evidence from Huaian District of Huaian City in Jiangsu Province

CHEN Pin, WANG Lou-Lou, WANG Peng, LU Jian-Fei

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2013, 46 (5): 1061-1069. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.05.022

Abstract （676）

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【Objective】 This research was conducted to study farmers behaviors in adoption of different rice cultivation ways and the influencing factors, and the corresponding references were provided to the development and promotion of rice cultivation ways. 【Method】 Based on the data from spot investigation, the Multinomial Logistic model was used to analyze empirically on results and influencing factors of farmers behaviors in adoption of direct seeding rice, rice transplanting with machine and hand planting rice.【Result】Whether the rice cultivation way was labor-saving or not had a significant effect on farmers’ adoption of both direct seeding rice and rice transplanting with machine. The information accessibility of rice cultivation way had a significant effect on farmers’ adoption of rice transplanting with machine. The productive investment had a negative effect on farmers’ adoption of direct seeding rice; rice planting area was negatively correlated with farmers’ adoption of direct seeding rice and positively correlated with farmers' adoption of rice transplanting with machine. There was a positive correlation between the household diversity and farmers’ adoption of direct seeding rice and rice transplanting with machine.【Conclusion】The key factor affecting farmers' behaviors in adoption of rice cultivation way is labor input. Farmers' adoption of labor-saving and simple rice cultivation way is promoted by the household diversity. The low productive investment is an important reason for farmers to adopt direct seeding rice. Promoting scale management and providing convenient and effective technical information can be promotion to the development of rice transplanting with machine.

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Strategies on Integrated Development of Agriculture- Forestry-Grass-Grazing in the Loess Plateau of China

LIU Wei-Jia

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2012, 45 (21): 4501-4507. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.21.019

Abstract （684）

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Agricultural husbandry in the Loess Platean mainly focus on crop cultivation, but now it is faced with the challenge of sustainable development. The main-accessorial relationship between agriculture and animal husbandry should be adjusted from crop cultivation to grazing. Through coupling development of agriculture-forestry-grass-grazing, reconfigure agriculture and animal husbandry resources. Based on selecting suitable vegetation types (grass, shrub and forest) for different environmental conditions, the advance development of strategy by planting grass and shrub should be carried out to form vertical ecological barrier of grass-shrub-forest and correlative industrial structure gradually. The development of animal husbandry in the Loess Plateau should be eco-friendly type of animal husbandry that has special path and innovation mechanism. Dry-lot feeding or semi-dry-lot feeding mode of husbandry management should be advocated, and with the large scale livestock farmers as the mainstay while cooperatives and breeding areas working separately as ties and platform to develop the subjects of husbandry production and management in the Loess Plateau. Centering on coupling development of agriculture-forestry-grass-grazing, the supporting points such as industry cultivation, policy support, project investment and interest guide should be strengthened, thus form four-wheel driving development pattern of animal husbandry in the Loess Plateau.

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Differences in Endowments of Peasant Household, Agricultural Subsidies, and Peasants’ Willingness to Transfer Farmlands —A Micro-Empirical Analysis from a Survey on Peasant Household of 30 Villages in 8 Provinces

HOU Shi-An

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2012, 45 (21): 4508-4516. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.21.020

Abstract （828）

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【Objective】The impacts of endowment differences in farmlands, human resources and property among peasant household and the state’s agricultural subsidy policies on peasants’ willingness to transfer farmlands were studied, and the fundamental factors of the farmlands transfer were analyzed.【Method】On the basis of survey data from 1 585 peasant households of 8 provinces in 2010, this article used Binary quantile regression and bayesian estimation techniques to measure the effect.【Result】 It was found that all kinds of endowment differences and policy variables have an obvious quantile effect on peasant households’ willingness to transfer farmlands.【Conclusion】There is a substitute relationship between farmlands’ social security function and its income effect. It has a better social security function on those who are at disadvantage endowments. Subsidies for growing superior grain and subsidies for agricultural capital goods play a limited role in encouraging peasant household to acquire farmlands. The agricultural subsidy policies should be combined with the career training of rural labors. Small loans play an obvious role in farmlands transfer.

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Applicability Screening of Mitigation Technologies and Management Practices of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture Sector

MI Song-Hua, HUANG Zu-Hui

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2012, 45 (21): 4517-4527. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.21.021

Abstract （610）

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【Objective】 Applicability assessment of mitigation technologies and management practices of emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture. 【Method】 An initial long list of mitigation measures was obtained based on a literature review and expert interview, then the modified delphi method was used to explore expert opinions from interdisciplinary sphere, and a final short list of agricultural mitigation technologies was screened. 【Result】 A final short list of three topics and eighteen measures was drawn up in light of mechanism and measure certainty, technically feasibility, abatement potential, increase or stability in yield, practices easily adopted by farmers, among which cropland nitrous oxide mitigation applicable technologies had an emphasis on nutrient management and farming practices, rice paddy field methane mitigation aimed at water management and cultivar selection and livestock mitigation technologies and management practices focused on forage and manure management.【Conclusion】 Breeding high yield and reduction GHG cultivar should be a core work for agricultural mitigation technology system, meanwhile, supporting subsidy and incentive policies and reinforcing technical training /demonstration should be strengthened in order to inspire the farmers adoption willing.

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Research on Path and Key Problem of Coordinated Development of Urbanization, Agricultural Modernization and Industrialization in Central Plains Economic Region

WU Yi-Ping, CHEN Su-Yun, SUN De-Zhong

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2012, 45 (21): 4528-4533. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.21.022

Abstract （814）

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【Objective】This paper was done to study the path and key problem of coordinated development of urbanization, agricultural modernization and industrialization in Central Plains Economic Region.【Method】GM (1, N ) model was used in analysis drive factors and influence factors of coordinated development of urbanization, agricultural modernization and industrialization.【Result】The drive index of urbanization and agricultural modernization is negative, the lowest is the urbanization drive index and the highest is the industrialization drive index.【Conclusion】The path of Central Plains Economic Region development should be led by urbanization and combined with rural community construction. In this process, the following problems need to be solved: Urbanization should be coordinated with industrial agglomeration; land transfer should be moderated and income distribution should be reasonable; urbanization should be pressed gradually to ensure interest in land of farmer; all kinds of funds should be integrated to solve the shortage of funds.

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Patent Quality in China’s Agricultural Sector: A Comparison Across Different Filing Periods, Applicants and Technology Fields

LIU Li-Jun, SONG Min

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2012, 45 (17): 3617-3623. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.17.019

Abstract （480）

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【Objective】The study aims to investigate the change in patent quality across different filing periods, applicants and technology fields in China’s agricultural sector when the volume of patent filings rose dramatically. 【Method】Using the total agricultural patents filed in China as a sample, the paper employs statistical and econometric models to examine invention patent ratios, invention patent grant ratios, grant lapse ratios and patent maintenance period. 【Result】There is no significant difference in grant ratio between domestic applications and foreign applications, but foreign grants are maintained longer than domestic counterparts. At the 0.01 significance level, for domestic applicants, the invention grant ratio of domestic public sector organizations (e.g. research institutes, universities) is a bit higher than that of companies and individuals’ ones; however the probability of renewing patent is significantly smaller than that of companies. The coefficients of time dummies show that both the invention grant ratio and renewal probability of domestic filings are on the rise in recent years. 【Conclusion】It is found that, the quality of Chinese domestic filings has been improved significantly in recent years although it still falls behind that of foreign filings. Particularly the progress in agro-biotechnology is the most striking. Public sectors organizations (universities and public agricultural research institutions) dominate the patenting activities in the agricultural sector and they have a better patent quality than private applicants (companies and individuals), however, most of university patents lapse rapidly in the first three years. The main policy implication is that government should guide and regulate the filing motives of public sector organizations and promote the transfer of agricultural patents from public sector to private sector.

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Will the Recession of Efficiency in China’s Agriculture End? —An Investigation Based on the Angle of Openness and Convergence

MA Shu-Zhong, FENG , HAN

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2012, 45 (15): 3189-3196. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.15.022

Abstract （533）

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【Objective】 The technology efficiency in China’s agriculture had keep recession for decades. This paper tries to find the influence of the open environment on China’s agricultural productivity, and answer whether the recession of efficiency in China’s agriculture will end. 【Method】 A second stage regression using the output-oriented Malmquist productivity indexes and their decompositions of China’s agricultural sector as dependent variables.【Result】A robust convergence in China's agricultural efficiency was found, which also has been enlarged by the open environment. It was also found that the “equilibrium” efficiency level was growing in the recent years.【Conclusion】The results show that the open environment will end the recession of China’s agricultural efficiency at last.

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Measurement and Analysis of the Contribution of Agriculture Agglomeration to the Industry Growth

WANG Yan-Rong, LIU Ye-Zheng

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2012, 45 (15): 3197-3202. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.15.023

Abstract （563）

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【Objective】The relationship between the appeared agricultural industrial agglomeration zone and agricultural industry growth was studied from the empirical perspective.【Method】Using the panel data of four agricultural agglomeration areas in Anhui and the location quotient coefficients, modified CD function, the relationship between agricultural agglomeration and industry growth was verified.【Result】The results show that the agricultural agglomerations have positive effects on the industry growth, but in the selected four regions, the contribution rate of agricultural agglomeration to industry growth is close to zero value. 【Conclusion】Enhancing agricultural concentration degree will help enhance the contribution of industrial agglomeration to the industry growth, and help enhance the competitiveness of agriculture, but the contribution rate to industry growth is more reflected in the dynamic change of agglomeration degree, rather than in the size of the agglomeration degree of a given year.

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Cited: Baidu(1)

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Study on Per Capita Grain Demand Based on Chinese Reasonable Dietary Pattern

TANG Hua-Jun, LI Zhe-Min

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2012, 45 (11): 2315-2327. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.11.022

Abstract （1107）

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【Objective】To analyze the composition of China’s per-capita grain demand, ascertain the per-capita grain consumption on the basis of rational diet patterns to realize the limited resources utility maximization and provide new supporting data for China's food security, and provide a scientific basis for developing appropriate policies to guide the consumer. All of the researches above are based on people’s nutrition and health.【Method】 The demand for per capita rations, grain for fodder and processing in the balanced diet model were calculated by applying the Prandial Balance Analysis Method. The per capita demand for seeds, industry and wastage were calculated by using the Trend Prediction Method, and the Scenarios Analysis Method was adoped to discuss different influence degrees between the two results.【Result】 The per-capita grain demand based on balanced dietary pattern is no more than 400 kg•a-1. The low program is 252.64 kg•a-1 the middle program is 322.07 kg•a-1, and the high program is 386.60 kg•a-1. In recent years, the real per-capita grain consumption in China has been fluctuating between 406.09-378.88 kg•a-1, which is greater than per-capita grain demand in the balanced dietary pattern. 【Conclusion】 If the per-capita grain demand in China reaches 322.07 kg•a-1, it will basically meet the per-capita demand for food security. If per-capita grain consumption reaches 386.60 kg•a-1, it will basically ensure the food security in China. The current residents’ irrational food consumption pattern brings about the differences between the per-capita grain demand based on the balanced dietary patterns and the real per-capita grain consumption. Therefore, the government should adjust the structure of food production, strengthen propaganda and popularization work of food consumption awareness about reasonable diet structure, and guide people to cultivate reasonable food consumption habits with the goal of nutrition and health.

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An Empirical Analysis on the Decomposition of Output Growth in Wheat Production of Agricultural Household: A Case Study in Henan Province

XIA Hai-Long, GUO Yan-Zhi, GUO Jing-Li

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2012, 45 (3): 569-574. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.03.020

Abstract （637）

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【Objective】The source of wheat output growth in Henan Province was analyzed in this paper.【Method】Using a stochastic frontier production function model, this paper decomposed the rate of contribution of each factor caused the growth of wheat production using an output growth decomposition approach by farm-level panel data collected from the fixed observation points of Ministry of Agriculture in Henan Province. 【Result】Empirical results show that the output growth of wheat production is driven by the growth of input factors accounted for 3.75% and total factor productivity growth accounted for 96.25%, in which its 61.75% and 34.5% are from changes in the technological advances and the technical efficiency changes, respectively, during the period of 2003-2008.【Conclusion】The output of wheat production in Henan Province is driven by the total factor productivity growth, both from the changes in technological advances and the changes of technical efficiency.

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Economic Values of Bee Pollination to China’s Agriculture

LIU Peng-Fei, WU Jie, LI Hai-Yan, LIN Su-Wen

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (24): 5117-5123. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.24.018

Abstract （1082）

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【Objective】 Through studying on the relationship between bee pollination and agricultural production, the economic value of bee pollination to agriculture was estimated for making clear the situation of apiculture in agriculture and providing a theoretical support for development of apicultural support polices in China. 【Method】 A bee pollination dependence valuation method was used to assess the economic value of bee as pollinators of 36 crops during 2006-2008, and the honeybee pollination demand of agricultural production in China was also discussed. 【Result】 There was a significant role in promoting the development of agriculture in China. The average economic value of 2006-2008, contributed by bee pollination, was estimated at￥304.22 billion, which was equivalent to 76 times the value of apicultural production, 12.30% of the gross output value of agriculture in China. There was a great demand for honeybee pollination in agriculture production, only vegetables, fruits, cotton and other crops required 60-87.95 million colonies(15 frames honeybees colony) pollination in 2008. 【Conclusion】 Beekeeping industry is an important component of modern agriculture, bee pollination is essential for agricultural production and there is also a huge demand. Therefore we should pay attention to beekeeping industry, not only to improve the level of social cognition in the value of bee pollination, but also provide powerful policy measures to support the development of apiculture in China.

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Analysis of Agricultural Technology Extension Efficiency in Super Rice Production

LU Xin-Ye , ZHU Xiao-Li, ZHOU Hong

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (24): 5124-5219. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.24.019

Abstract （838）

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【Objective】 This paper analyzes the efficiency of technology extension in super rice’s each production links from the angle of input and output. 【Method】 Through decomposing the planting links of super rice, using the first-hand field data and applying super-efficiency DEA method, the key indicators of agricultural technology extension efficiency were established. 【Result】The results show that the model household’s production was efficient, while the production efficiency of non-model household was only 80% in average. The three time deviation indexes accounted for 15% on yield of the total impact. Through analyzing the relaxation variables, the analysis and quantitative description of degree of deviation of the non-effective indexes was made. 【Conclusion】 The promotion situation of super rice has an important influence on its output and efficiency. This study fully explained that agricultural technology extension efficiency in growing management not only affects the output, but also affects the cost of planting.

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Improving the Independent Innovation Ability in Agricultural Science and Technology

XIN Nai-Quan

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (23): 4933-4938. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.23.021

Abstract （619）

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Under the guidance of scientific development concept, this paper deeply analyzed the current status of agricultural science and technology innovation, for further study and propose the main tasks during the 12th Five-Year-Plan period, and then, discussed the innovation-related theories and problems, i.e., the theories and problems of independent innovation and introduction of advanced technologies, the protection of independent innovation and intellectual properties, the original innovation, integrated innovation, and introduction-utilization-re-innovation, as well as the problems of independent innovation and deepened reform of the systems of science and technologies, independent innovation and fostering the talents and teams, independent innovation and sci-tech input, independent innovation and reform of management systems,etc. with the aims to help start a new ground in agricultural science and technology.

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Cited: Baidu(2)

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Study on Comprehensive Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Information Service in Rural Areas——Based on the Survey of Village-Level Perspective in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

LI Jin, ZHAO Chun-Jiang, QIN Xiang-Yang, YUAN Xue-Guo, ZHANG Zheng

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (19): 4110-4120. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.19.023

Abstract （727）

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【Objective】 The establishment of rural information service system is a systematic engineering which is influenced by various elements such as national conditions, regional characteristics, rural economic and social development. In order to understand the status quo，the effect and key influencing factors of rural information service, address the key working and then explore a mechanism of sustainable development for rural information service in new rural construction, this paper gives an analysis of the effect evaluation and influencing factors of rural information service patterns in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.【Method】The paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for rural information service, combined with AHP and Delphi method to determine the index weight, then measured and evaluated it with Liken Scales. And what is more, it selected four factors for a fitting analysis like GDP, farmers’ culture quality, informatization input, net income per capita, network home rate, amount of information technology equipment per capita and information technology training person times seven factors of rural information service with the multiple linear regression model. 【Result】 The general level of information service was good from the sampled villages, farmers were satisfied with the content of information service and policy and legal guarantee. However, the evaluation on information capacities and construction of information resource were general according to these farmers. Rural information service was mainly relative to farmers culture quality, information input, amount of information technology equipment per capita and information technology training person times rather than GDP, net income per capita and network home rate. The more information input, the stronger the ability of farmers to accept the information, the better service effect. The more poverty backward area, the lower farmers’ culture quality got, the better effect of information service.【Conclusion】It was found that optimizing development environment was a key to solve “Last One Kilometer” of information service in rural area, information service can further expand its functions and effects in poorer regions, and moreover diversifying channels for information dissemination would greatly enhance its effects. Government should fully play a leading role in construction of rural information service system, optimize development environment of information service and speed up the popularization of portable information terminals, meanwhile, farmers’ consciousness and consumption level of information were needed to be improved .

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Advances in Research of Short-Term Forecasting Methods of Agricultural Product Price

XU Shi-Wei, LI Zhe-Min, LI Gan-Qiong, DONG Xiao-Xia

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (17): 3666-3675. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.17.020

Abstract （1164）

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This paper reviewed the progress in the theories, methods and their application of short-term forecasting of agricultural product prices at home and abroad. Advantages and disadvantages of the existing research methods were comparatively analyzed and the future research directions were prospected. A conclusion drawn from the research was that the quantitative forecasting method could be divided into econometric forecasting, statistics forecasting, intelligent analysis and combination model as the wide application of mathematical statistics, econometrics, fuzzy mathematics and artificial neural network. In the future, the development of short-term forecasting methods of agricultural product prices will show these characteristics: quantitative analysis will be dominant and large-scale complex of intelligent hybrid model will be increased. Moreover, quantile regression model will be introduced as a new application of short-term forecasting of agricultural product prices.

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Study on China’s Swine Price Discovery Forming Mechanism ——Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Interregional Price

CHEN Yong-Fu, MA Guo-Ying, WU Bei-Bei, QIAN Xiao-Ping

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (15): 3279-3279. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.15.024

Abstract （918）

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【Objective】 The objective of this study is to provide the transmission mechanism of swine price. 【Method】The common factors and information shares in major swine producing areas were measured by the permanent-transitory model and information share model based on the swine prices in these areas under the rising price volatility in China’s swine market. 【Result】The empirical results show that the swine prices in the three provinces of Sichuan, Hunan and Henan have an significant effect on China’s swine price formation and the rising swine price in Sichuan and Hunan plays a negative role in common factors, while in Henan has a positive effect. The permanent factor’s proportion of swine price in different provinces continues to show an upward trend generally, and the transitory factor’s proportion of swine price in Sichuan and Henan provinces is relatively high, as well as the swine price has a relatively high information share in market. 【Conclusion】 More attention should be paid to the stability of swine prices in Sichuan and Hunan. The flucluation of swine price in Henan should be minimized so as to reduce the magnitude of change in common factors. The epidemic and the downstream demand (pork demand) and other factors, which caused the change of the transitory factor’s proportion of swine price in Sichuan and Henan should be concerned so as to minimize the negative effects of disruption as far as possible.

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A Food Security Assessment in APEC Based on Grain Productivity

YU Qiang-Yi, WU Wen-Bin, TANG Hua-Jun, CHEN You-Qi, YANG Peng

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (13): 2838-2848. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.13.023

Abstract （1105）

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【Objective】The APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), due to its great typicality and importance in world food system, was selected to conduct food security assessment among its economies in this study. 【Method】Intended to highlight grain production in food system, this study firstly used the mechanism method to calculate the productivity potential of radiation, thermal, climatic, land and grain production-potential in APEC region regressively, which was taken as the basis of food security assessment. And then some important indicators were selected to build the index system to assess the food security level in each APEC member economies by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). 【Result】The results show that the overall grain production potential of APEC region reaches as high as 1.7 billion tons. Compared with the real grain production of 1.1 billion tons, there is a possibility for all the economies to increase their production. While concerning population carrying capacity and food consumption, food security level in each economy varies greatly, and developed economies are in general more secured than developing economies, except for Japan and Korea. 【Conclusion】Exploring grain production-potential at uttermost is a reasonable way to improve food security, at the same time, it is necessary to control population explosion, especially for those overloaded regions.

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Strategic Demands，Development Emphases and Countermeasures of Agricultural Sciences and Technology in the 12th-Five-Year Period

WANG Ji-min,XIAO Hong-bo

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (11): 2398-2402. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.11.024

Abstract （849）

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“十二五”时期是中国全面建设小康社会的关键时期，也是现代农业加速发展的重要时期。保障国家粮食安全、发展现代农业、保护资源环境和提高国际竞争力对农业科技发展提出了更加紧迫的战略需求。农业科技发展的重点应主要集中在粮食等主要农产品产量提高、农产品质量改善、农业生产效率提升、农业生态环境保护等领域的共性关键技术的突破和不同区域以及全国农业科技自主创新能力的提升。农业科技必须采取加强宏观管理、深化体制改革、完善投入机制、培育人才队伍和加强国际交流与合作等重大政策措施，以加快推进农业科技创新和支撑能力的提升。

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Pesticide Application Intensity by Farmers and Its Influences —Based on the Investigation Data of Farmers from Major Grain Producing Areas

CAI Shu-kai,LI Jing

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (11): 2403-2410. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.11.025

Abstract （1036）

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【目的】研究农民种植水稻的农药施用强度及其影响因素，为引导农民合理施用农药提供思路和实证依据。【方法】基于安徽省粮食主产区的实地调研数据，利用Tobit模型实证分析农户水稻种植农药施用强度及其影响因素。【结果】不同农户之间农药施用强度差异较大，是否雇工施药、病虫害预防措施、农药施药设备、家庭收入结构、病虫害信息服务、农民的健康意识等是影响农户农药施用强度主要因素。【结论】培育壮大社会化统防统治服务组织、健全公益性病虫害监测预警和信息传播体系、加大植保机械研发和补贴力度、发展基于病虫害控制和残留的粮食市场、扩散基于农民社区的病虫害预防措施、同时通过加强健康知识宣传普及引导农民合理施药等是降低农药施用强度的优先政策选择。

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Contract Production and Farmer’s Organic Fertilizer Use Behavior ——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Survey Data of Apple Growers in Shandong Province

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (6): 1277-1282. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.sas-2010-07507

Abstract （670）

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【Objective】As the lacking application of organic fertilizer will exacerbate the soil nutrients imbalance and fertility decline and be a serious threat to sustainable agriculture and rural economic development as well, how to take effective measures to guide farmers to adjust their fertilization structure is a problem to be solved in the process of China’s agricultural development. The objective of the research is to study the impact of contract production on farmer’s organic fertilizing behalior. 【Method】 Using the survey data on apple growers in Shandong Province, this paper aims to evaluate the impact of contract production on organic fertilizer use behavior and the underlying mechanism.【Result】The analysis demonstrates that, marketing contract, production contract, orchard distance from house, orchard size, awareness of organic fertilizer and the proportion of non-agricultural income have a positive correlation with organic fertilizer application. Fertilizer application and the amount of labors have a negative correlation with organic fertilizer application.【Conclusion】When other conditions are the same, farmer signed marketing contract and production contract will increase organic fertilizer application by 678 yuan/hm2 and 1 497 yuan/hm2, respectively; orchard distance from house, orchard size, awareness of organic fertilizer, the amount of labors and the proportion of non-agricultural income are also important factors in farmer’s decision-making of organic fertilizer use.

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Research on the Mechanism and Policies of Accumulation of Eco-capital of Green Agriculture

YAN Li-dong,DENG Yuan-jian,QU Zhi-guang

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (5): 1046-1055. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.sas-2010-06860

Abstract （853）

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【Objective】Combining with theory of green agriculture and theory of eco-capital, this paper discusses the mechanism and policies of accumulation of eco-capital of green agriculture. Its purpose is to promote virtuous running of eco-capital of green agriculture and sustainable development of green agriculture.【Method】Guidance under the theory of ecologic economics and agricultural ecological economics, this paper uses the method of technical analysis from the angle of multi-disciplinary subjects to explain the mechanism and policies of accumulating of eco-capital of green agriculture.【Result】Accumulation of eco-capital of green agriculture includes natural accumulation and artificial accumulation. Human factors play an important role in running of eco-capital of green agriculture. The path of accumulation of eco-capital of green agriculture includes agricultural economic ecologization and agricultural ecological economization. The mechanism of accumulation of eco-capital of green agriculture includes mechanism of ecology protection of green agriculture, mechanism of ecology restoration of green agriculture, mechanism of ecology compensation of green agriculture. The policies of accumulation of eco-capital of green agriculture include industrial policy, trade policy, technology policy, investment policy, management policy, and so on.【Conclusion】Accumulation of eco-capital of green agriculture is the base of running of eco-capital of green agriculture, and sound mechanism and policy is the guarantee of the accumulation of eco-capital of green agriculture.

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Comparison Between Liquid Culture and Solid Culture Technologies for Edible Mushroom Spawn Production and Analysis on Their Economic Benefits

GUO Jing-li,LIU Xu

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (4): 835-841. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.sas-2010-07554

Abstract （1457）

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【Objective】Through comparing the profit ratio of cost of liquid culture and solid culture technologies for spawn production, the advantages of liquid spawn production were explored for providing strategies for facilitating the application of this technology to promote healthy and rapid development of edible mushroom industry.【Method】 In this paper, an edible fungus research laboratory and a large-scale production facility for edible mushroom were used as examples. Detailed records and statistics were kept for the production of Bai-Ling mushroom (pleurotus nebrodensis) spawn using liquid culture and solid culture technologies in the years of 2009 and 2010. Statistical analyses were carried out on the cost and the profit.【Result】Liquid culture technology for spawn production has significant profit advantages. For example, the time for spawn production is reduced by 24 days. The time for mycelia to fill a fruiting bag is reduced to 10 days. The contamination rate is reduced by 1.5%. The cost of one fruiting bag is reduced by 0.732 yuan. The profit ratio of cost is increased by 42.08%. However, many problems need to be solved before this technology can be broadly used. 【Conclusion】 Comparing with solid culture method, liquid culture technology for spawn production is obviously more advantageous, which is reflected in better spawn quality, reduction of contamination, increase of efficiency, reduction of cost and increase of production stability. For this technology to be broadly used, it is key to improve incubator shakers, fermentation tanks and inoculation equipments. Efforts to facilitate researches according to the demand of a dynamic market would promote the application of this technology in the fast-growing mushroom spawn production industry.

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Changes of Precipitation Suitability and Assessment of Yield Loss Risk of Cole at Flowering Period

WU Li-hong,LOU Wei-ping,LIU Miao,WU Yao-xiang

Scientia Agricultura Sinica 2011, 44 (3): 620-626. DOI: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.sas-2010-06764

Abstract （908）

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【Objective】The objective of the research was to study the changes of precipitation suitability and yield loss risk of cole at flowering period.【Method】Changes of precipitation suitability of cole at flowering period were calculated by using climate trend rate. Based on relationship of precipitation suitability and cole yield, yield loss risk was assessed based on Beta distribution model.【Result】Precipitation suitability of cole at flowering period is positive, suitability was increased at the average rate of 0.0075/10a,waterlogging in cole flowering period in Zhejiang showed signs of abating. In bad harvest year, risk probability of precipitation suitability spatial distribution showed a decrease from southwest to northeast, and in good harvest year, it showed a increase from southwest to northeast. 【Conclusion】 The change of climate made precipitation suitability increased and risk decreased, which is of benefit to the increase of the cole yield.

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