农产品市场价格短期预测研究进展

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.17.020

Abstract

Abstract: This paper reviewed the progress in the theories, methods and their application of short-term forecasting of agricultural product prices at home and abroad. Advantages and disadvantages of the existing research methods were comparatively analyzed and the future research directions were prospected. A conclusion drawn from the research was that the quantitative forecasting method could be divided into econometric forecasting, statistics forecasting, intelligent analysis and combination model as the wide application of mathematical statistics, econometrics, fuzzy mathematics and artificial neural network. In the future, the development of short-term forecasting methods of agricultural product prices will show these characteristics: quantitative analysis will be dominant and large-scale complex of intelligent hybrid model will be increased. Moreover, quantile regression model will be introduced as a new application of short-term forecasting of agricultural product prices.

Key words: agricultural market, market price, short-term forecasting, forecasting method

XU Shi-Wei, LI Zhe-Min, LI Gan-Qiong, DONG Xiao-Xia. Advances in Research of Short-Term Forecasting Methods of Agricultural Product Price[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2011, 44(17): 3666-3675.

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