Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2011, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (15): 3279-3279 .doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.15.024

• AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY & MANAGMENT • Previous Articles    

Study on China’s Swine Price Discovery Forming Mechanism ——Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Interregional Price

CHEN  Yong-Fu, MA  Guo-Ying, WU  Bei-Bei, QIAN  Xiao-Ping   

  1. 1.中国农业大学经济管理学院
    2.日本国际农林水产业中心
  • Received:2011-03-09 Revised:2011-04-19 Online:2011-08-01 Published:2011-04-25
  • Contact: Yong-Mu CHEN E-mail:chenyf@cau.edu.cn

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Abstract: 【Objective】 The objective of this study is to provide the transmission mechanism of swine price. 【Method】The common factors and information shares in major swine producing areas were measured by the permanent-transitory model and information share model based on the swine prices in these areas under the rising price volatility in China’s swine market. 【Result】The empirical results show that the swine prices in the three provinces of Sichuan, Hunan and Henan have an significant effect on China’s swine price formation and the rising swine price in Sichuan and Hunan plays a negative role in common factors, while in Henan has a positive effect. The permanent factor’s proportion of swine price in different provinces continues to show an upward trend generally, and the transitory factor’s proportion of swine price in Sichuan and Henan provinces is relatively high, as well as the swine price has a relatively high information share in market. 【Conclusion】 More attention should be paid to the stability of swine prices in Sichuan and Hunan. The flucluation of swine price in Henan should be minimized so as to reduce the magnitude of change in common factors. The epidemic and the downstream demand (pork demand) and other factors, which caused the change of the transitory factor’s proportion of swine price in Sichuan and Henan should be concerned so as to minimize the negative effects of disruption as far as possible.

Key words: swine price, permanent-transitory model, information share model

CLC Number: 

  • F323.7

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