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| Geographic Variation of Rice Yield Response to Past Climate Change in China |
| YANG Jie, XIONG Wei, YANG Xiao-guang, CAO Yang , FENG Ling-zhi |
1、College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, P.R.China
2、Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
3、International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services and Management Program, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
4、Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville FL 32600-0570, USA |
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摘要 Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a significant decline of simulated national rice yield (simulated with CERES-Rice), with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which confirmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14°C and above 20°C, a 1°C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20°C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the significant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China’s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identified as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.
Abstract Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a significant decline of simulated national rice yield (simulated with CERES-Rice), with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which confirmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14°C and above 20°C, a 1°C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20°C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the significant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China’s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identified as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.
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Received: 06 September 2013
Accepted:
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| Fund: This research was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951504, 2012CB95590004), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41171093), and the Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2012BAC19B01). |
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Corresponding Authors:
XIONG Wei, Tel: +86-10-82105985, E-mail: xiongwei8848@hotmail.com
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Cite this article:
YANG Jie, XIONG Wei, YANG Xiao-guang, CAO Yang , FENG Ling-zhi.
2014.
Geographic Variation of Rice Yield Response to Past Climate Change in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(7): 1586-1598.
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