Optimizing management strategies to enhance wheat productivity in the North China Plain under climate change

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2025.03.004

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Baohua Liu¹^,², Ganqiong Li², Yongen Zhang², Ling Zhang¹^,³, Dianjun Lu¹^,⁴, Peng Yan¹^,⁵, Shanchao Yue¹^,⁶, Gerrit Hoogenboom⁷, Qingfeng Meng^1#, Xinping Chen¹^,⁸

¹China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
² Key Laboratory of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs / Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
³Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
⁴Institute Soil Science, State Key Lab Soil & Sustainable Agricultural, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 21008, China
⁵ Tea Research Institute, Chinese Academy Agricultural Science, Hangzhou 310008, China
⁶ Institute Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
⁷Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA
⁸College of Resources and Environment, Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Soil and Fertilizer Resources, Southwest University, Chongqing 400044, China

Highlights

1. Wheat yield potential averaged 10.8 t ha^-1, limited by pre-winter growing degree days (GDD) and seasonal solar radiation.

2. Wheat yield potential decline in the future due to climatic warming and solar dimming, but CO₂ fertilization effect could offset these negative impacts.

3. Adopting multiple management practices that account for complex climate–crop–soil interconnections could enhance wheat yield.

Abstract
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摘要

准确估算气候变化背景下小麦的产量潜力对于评估粮食生产能力至关重要。然而，基于不完全优化的田间试验校验的作物机理模型往往低估了小麦的产量潜力。本研究基于CERES-Wheat模型和管理良好的十年长期定位试验数据，定量评估了华北平原小麦的产量潜力，并明确了影响产量潜力及缩小产量差的关键限制因素。结果表明，近十年华北平原小麦的平均产量潜力为10.8 t/ha^-1，冬前积温（592）和生育季太阳辐射（3036 MJ/m²）不足是限制产量潜力的关键气候因素。在不考虑CO₂浓度升高的情况下，预计2040-2059年间，华北平原小麦的产量潜力在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下将分别下降1.8%和5.1%。然而，CO₂的施肥效应足以抵消气候变暖和太阳辐射下降的负面影响，最终使2040-2059年间小麦的产量潜力在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别提高7.5%和9.8%。此外，10月5日播种以及每平米400株的播种密度能最佳匹配华北平原的光热资源，最大化小麦的产量潜力；优化灌溉制度（3次，270mm）和根层土壤氮素管理措施可以有效缩小产量差。本研究强调了基于气候-作物-土壤协同的综合管理策略对提高华北平原小麦产量潜力和缩小产量差的重要性。

Abstract

Accurately estimating wheat yield potential under climate changes is essential to assess food production capacity. However, studies based on crop modeling and imperfect management experiment data frequently underestimate the wheat yield potential. In this study, we evaluated wheat yield potential based on CERES-wheat model and a well-managed 10-year (2008-2017) field observation in the North China Plain (NCP), and further identified the critical climate and management yield-limiting factors for improving wheat yield potential and closing wheat yield gap. Our results revealed that wheat yield potential averaged 10.8 t ha^-1 in the recent decade. The low growing degree days (GDD) in the pre-winter growing season (592) and solar radiation in the whole growth season (3,036 MJ m^-2) are the most critical climatic limiting factors of wheat yield potential in the current production system. Nonetheless, wheat yield potential in the NCP is projected to decline during 2040-2059 by 1.8 and 5.1% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, without considering the elevated CO₂ concentration. However, the positive influence of CO₂ fertilization is sufficient to offset these negative impacts from climatic warming and solar dimming, ultimately leading to an enhancement in wheat yield potential by 7.5 and 9.8% during 2040-2059 compared to the baseline under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We recommend selecting an appropriate planting date (5 October) and planting density (400 plants m^-2) that align with light and temperature conditions during the wheat growing season, thereby improving wheat yield potential. Additionally, optimizing the timing and rate of water application (three times, 270 mm) and fertilizer use (based on in-season root zone nitrogen management) is crucial for closing the wheat yield gap. Our study underscores the importance of adopting multiple management practices that account for complex climate–crop–soil interconnections to enhance wheat yield based on a long-term field experiment under the changing climate.

Keywords: CERES-wheat climate change field observation management strategy yield potential

Online: 17 March 2025

Fund:

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFD2302801), the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (JBYW-AII-2024-38), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and China Scholarship Council.

About author: #Correspondence Qingfeng Meng, E-mail: mengqf@cau.edu.cn

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Baohua Liu, Ganqiong Li, Yongen Zhang, Ling Zhang, Dianjun Lu, Peng Yan, Shanchao Yue, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Qingfeng Meng, Xinping Chen. 2025. Optimizing management strategies to enhance wheat productivity in the North China Plain under climate change. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, Doi:10.1016/j.jia.2025.03.004

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