|
|
|
|
|
| Modeling Climate Change Impacts on the US Agricultural Exports |
| ZHANG Yu-quan; CAI Yong-xia; Beach Robert H ; McCARL Bruce A |
1.Agricultural, Resource & Energy Economics and Policy Program, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA
2.Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA |
|
|
|
摘要 Climate change is expected to have substantial effects on agricultural productivity worldwide. However, these impacts will differ across commodities, locations and time periods. As a result, landowners will see changes in relative returns that are likely to induce modifications in production practices and land allocation. In addition, regional variations in impacts can alter relative competitiveness across countries and lead to adjustments in international trade patterns. Thus in climate change impact studies it is likely useful to account for worldwide productivity effects. In this study, we investigate the implications of considering rest of world climate impacts on projections of the US agricultural exports. We chose to focus on the US because it is one of the largest agricultural exporters. To conduct our analyses, we consider four alternative climate scenarios, both with and without rest of world climate change impacts. Our results show that considering/ignoring rest of world climate impacts causes significant changes in the US production and exports projections. Thus we feel climate change impact studies should account not only for climate impacts in the country of focus but also on productivity in the rest of the world in order to capture effects on commodity markets and trade potential.
Abstract Climate change is expected to have substantial effects on agricultural productivity worldwide. However, these impacts will differ across commodities, locations and time periods. As a result, landowners will see changes in relative returns that are likely to induce modifications in production practices and land allocation. In addition, regional variations in impacts can alter relative competitiveness across countries and lead to adjustments in international trade patterns. Thus in climate change impact studies it is likely useful to account for worldwide productivity effects. In this study, we investigate the implications of considering rest of world climate impacts on projections of the US agricultural exports. We chose to focus on the US because it is one of the largest agricultural exporters. To conduct our analyses, we consider four alternative climate scenarios, both with and without rest of world climate change impacts. Our results show that considering/ignoring rest of world climate impacts causes significant changes in the US production and exports projections. Thus we feel climate change impact studies should account not only for climate impacts in the country of focus but also on productivity in the rest of the world in order to capture effects on commodity markets and trade potential.
|
|
Received: 15 October 2013
Accepted:
|
|
Corresponding Authors:
ZHANG Yu-quan, Tel: +1-919-541-6922, Fax: +1-919-541-7155, E-mail: yuzhang@rti.org
|
| About author: ZHANG Yu-quan, Tel: +1-919-541-6922, Fax: +1-919-541-7155, E-mail: yuzhang@rti.org |
Cite this article:
ZHANG Yu-quan; CAI Yong-xia; Beach Robert H ; McCARL Bruce A.
2014.
Modeling Climate Change Impacts on the US Agricultural Exports. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(4): 666-676.
|
| [1]Adams D, Alig R, McCarl B A, Murray B C. 2005. FASOMGHG Conceptual Structure and Specification: Documentation. [2013-03-01] http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/1212FASOMGHG_ doc.pdf [2]Adams R M, Fleming R A, Chang C C, McCarl B A, Rosenzweig C. 1995. A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on US agriculture. Climatic Change, 30, 147-167[3]Adams R M, McCarl B A, Segerson K, Rosenzweig C, Bryant K J, Dixon B L, Connor R, Evenson R E, Ojima D. 1999. The economic effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture. In: Mendelsohn R, Neumann J, eds., The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York. pp. 19-54[4]Adams R M, Rosenzweig C, Peart R M, Ritchie J T, McCarl B A, Glyer J D, Curry R B, Jones J W, Boote K J, Allen Jr L H. 1990. Global climate change and US agriculture. Nature, 345, 219-224[5]Aisabokhae R A, McCarl B A, Zhang Y W. 2011. Agricultural adaptation: Needs, findings and effects. In: Mendelsohn R, Dinar A, eds., Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture. Edward Elgar, Northampton, MA. pp. 327-341[6]Beach R H, Adams D M, Alig R J, Baker J S, Latta G S, McCarl B A, Murray B C, Rose S K, White E M. 2010a. Model Documentation for the Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG). RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC. [7]Beach R H, McCarl B A. 2010. Impacts of the Energy Independence and Security Act on U.S. Agriculture and Forestry: FASOM Results and Model Description. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality. RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC. [8]Beach R H, Zhen C, Thomson A, Rejesus R M, Sinha P, Lentz A W, Vedenov D V, McCarl B A. 2010b. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Insurance. Prepared for the US Department of Agriculture, Risk Management Agency. RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC. [9]Chen C C. 1998. Development and application of a linked global trade detailed U.S. agricultural sector analysis system. PhD thesis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX. [10]Chen C C, McCarl B A. 2000. The value of ENSO information to agriculture: Consideration of event strength and trade. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 25, 368-385[11]Chen C C, McCarl B A, Chang C C. 2006. Estimating the impacts of government interventions in the international rice market. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 54, 81-100[12]Easterling W E, Aggarwal P K, Batima P, Brander K M, Erda L, Howden S M, Kirilenko A, Morton J, Soussana J F, Schmidhuber J, et al. 2007. Food, fibre and forest products. In: Parry M L, Canziani O F, Palutikof J P, van der Linden P J, Hanson C E, eds., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York. pp. 273-313[13]FAS, USDA. 2011. Grain: World Markets and Trade. The Report of Foreign Agricultural Services, United States Department of Agriculture, Circular Series FG 12-11[14]Washington, D.C., USA. FAS, USDA. 2012. Record Brazilian Agricultural Production Spurs Further Export Gains. The Report of Foreign Agricultural Services, United States Department of Agriculture, USA. [15]Fischer G, Frohberg K, Keyzer M A, Parikh K S. 1988. Linked National Models: A Tool for International Food Policy Analysis. Kluwer, Dordrecht. Fisher G, Shah M, Tubiello F N, van Velhuizen H. 2005. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 360, 2067-2083[16]Fuchs D, Clapp J. 2009. Corporate power and global agrifood governance: Lessons learned. In: Clapp J, Fuchs D, eds., Corporate Power in Global Agrifood Governance. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA. pp. 285-296[17]Gale F. 2004. Is China’s Corn Market at a Turning Point? United States Department of Agriculture, FDS-04C-01, Washington, D[18]C., USA. Gale F, Tuan F, Wang X, Cao Z. 2009. China Is Using More Corn for Industrial Products. United States Department of Agriculture, FDS-09K-01, Washington, DC., USA. Headey D. 2011. Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks. Food Policy, 36, 136-146[19]Juliá R, Duchin F. 2007. World trade as the adjustment mechanism of agriculture to CC. Climatic Change, 82, 393-409[20]IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, USA. [21]Lloyd P J, Croser J L, Anderson K. 2010. Global distortions to agricultural markets: Indicators of trade and welfare impacts, 1960 to 2007. Review of Development Economics, 14, 141-160[22]McCarl B A. 2006. US Agriculture in the Climate Change Squeeze: Part 1: Sectoral Sensitivity and Vulnerability. Report to National Environmental Trust. [2012-04- 01][23]http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/689cc/topic5b_Agriculture%20in%20the%20 climate%20change%20squeez1.pdf McCarl B A. 2011. Chapter 6: Vulnerability of Texas agriculture to climate change. In: Schmandt J, Clarkson J, North G R, eds., Impact of Global Warming on Texas. 2nd ed. University of Texas Press, Austin, TX. [24]Nelson G C, Rosegrant M W, Koo J, Robertson R, Sulser T, Zhu T, Ringler C, Msangi S, Palazzo A, Batka M, et al. 2009. Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation. Food Policy Report. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.[25]Nelson G C, Rogegrant M W, Palazzo A, Gray I, Ingersoll C, Robertson R, Tokgoz S, Zhu T, Sulser T B, Ringler C, et al. 2010. Food Security, Farming and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. [26]Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Fischer G, Livermore M. 1999. Climate change and world food security: A new assessment. Global Environmental Change, 9, S51-S67. [27]Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G. 2004. Effects of CC on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14, 53-67[28]Reilly J, Hohmann N. 1993. Climate change and agriculture: Tthe role of international trade. The American Economic Review, 83, 306-312[29]Reilly J, Hohmann N, Kane S. 1994. Climate change and agricultural trade: who benefits, who loses? Global Environmental Change, 4, 24-36[30]Reilly J, Tubiello F, McCarl B A, Abler D, Darwin R, Fuglie K, Hollinger S, Izaurralde C, Jagtap S, Jones J, et al. 2002. U.S. agriculture and climate change: New results. Climatic Change, 57, 43-67[31]Reilly J M, Hrubovcak J, Graham J, Abler D G, Darwin R, Hollinger S E, Izaurralde R C, Jagtap S, Jones J W, Kimble J, et al. 2002. Agriculture: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States. US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, US Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, USA. Rosenzweig C, Parry M L. 1994. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature, 367, 133-138 |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
