|
|
|
|
|
| Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptive Strategies in China |
| LI Rui-li , Shu Geng |
1.School of Environment and Energy, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, P.R.China
2.Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA |
|
|
|
摘要 China is the world’s most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, China’s role in climate change has received a great deal of attention, whereas the impact of climate change on China has been largely ignored. Studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming major areas of scientific concern. However, the clear warming that has been sounded in China in recent decades has not been matched with a clear assessment of the impact of climate change on China’s water resources and agriculture. In the present study, we review observations on climate change, hydrology, and agriculture in China and relate these observations to likely future changes. We also analyse the adaptive strategies in China’s agriculture.
Abstract China is the world’s most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, China’s role in climate change has received a great deal of attention, whereas the impact of climate change on China has been largely ignored. Studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming major areas of scientific concern. However, the clear warming that has been sounded in China in recent decades has not been matched with a clear assessment of the impact of climate change on China’s water resources and agriculture. In the present study, we review observations on climate change, hydrology, and agriculture in China and relate these observations to likely future changes. We also analyse the adaptive strategies in China’s agriculture.
|
|
Received: 17 October 2012
Accepted:
|
| Fund: This work was financially supported by the Special Program of Postdoctor Science Foundation of China (201104025). |
|
Corresponding Authors:
Correspondence Shu Geng, Tel: +86-755-26032802, E-mail: sgeng@ucdavis.edu, gengxu@pkusz.edu.cn
|
Cite this article:
LI Rui-li , Shu Geng.
2013.
Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptive Strategies in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12(8): 1402-1408.
|
| [1]ACE (Atmospheric, Climate and Environment). 2002. In:Buchdahl J, ed., Climate Change Fact Sheet for KeyStage 4 and A-Level. Manchester MetropolitanUniversity Press, Manchester. pp. 1-171[2]Aerts J, Droogers P. 2004. Climate Change in ContrastingRiver Basins: Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food,and Environment. CABI Publishing, The Netherlands.pp. 1-264[3]Boyles R P, Raman S. 2003. Analysis of climate trends inNorth Carolina (1949-1998) Environment International,29, 263-275[4]Chen H L, Zhang H W, Xue C Y. 2010. Extreme climate eventsand agricultural meteorological services in China.Meteorological and Environmental Science, 33, 67-77[5]Ci L J, Wu B. 1997. Climatic type division and the potentialextent determination of desertification in China. Journalof Desert Research, 17, 107-111. (in Chinese)[6]Dai S W, Yang X G, Zhao M, Li Y, Wang W F, Liu Z J. 2011.Changes of China agricultural climate resources underthe background of climate change II. Spatiotemporalchange characteristics of agricultural climate resourcesin Southwest China. Chinese Journal of AppliedEcology, 22, 442-452 (in Chinese)[7]Du M Y, Kawashima S, Yonemura S, Zhang X Z, Chen S B.2004. Mutual influence between human activities andclimate change in the Tibetan Plateau during recentyears. Global and Planetary Change, 41, 241-249[8]Gao M J, Luo Q Y. 2008. Study on cropping structureoptimization in region short of water -A case study ofNorth China. Journal of Natural Resources, 23, 204-210 (in Chinese)[9]IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007a.Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report. Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, UK.IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007b.Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK.Kang Y H, Khan S, Ma X Y. 2009. Climate change impactsoil crop yield, crop water productivity and food security-A review. Progress in Natural Science, 19, 665-674[10]Kurukulasuriya P, Mendelsohn R. 2008. A Ricardian analysisof the impact of climate change on African cropland. Africa Agriculture Research Economics, 2, 1-23[11]Kurukulasuriya P, Mendelsohn R, Hassan R, Benhin J, DiopM, Eid H M, Fosu K Y, Gbetibouo G, Jain S, MahamadouA, et al. 2006. Will African agriculture survive climatechange? World Bank Economics Review, 20, 367-388[12]Lal R. 2005. Climate change, soil carbon dynamics, andglobal food security. In: Lal R, Stewart B A, Uphoff N,Hansen D O, eds., Climate Change and Global FoodSecurity. CRC Press, Boca Raton (FL). pp. 113-143[13]Li Y, Yang X G, Wang W F, Liu Z J. 2010. Changes of Chinaagricultural climate resources under the background ofclimate change I. Spatiotemporal change characteristicsof agricultural climate resources in South China. ChineseJournal of Applied Ecology, 21, 2605-2614[14](in Chinese)Lin E, Xu Y L, Wu S H, Ju H, Ma S M. 2007. China’s nationalassessment report on climate change (II): climate changeimpacts and adaptation. Advance in Climate ChangeResearch, 3, 6-11[15]Lin E, Xu YL, Wu SH, Ju H, Ma SM. 2007.Macdonald R W, Harner T, Fyfe J. 2005. Recent climatechange in the Arctic and its impact on contaminantpathways and interpretation of temporal trend data.Science of the Total Environment, 342, 5-86[16]Matthews R B, Wassmann R. 2003. Modeling the impactsof climate change and methane emission reductions onrice production: a review. European Journal ofAgronomy, 19, 573-598[17]Meehl G A. 2007. Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, QinD, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M,Miller H, eds., Climate Change 2007: The Physical ScienceBasis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.[18]Ministry of Water Resources. 1998. China’s Water Agenda21. China Water and Power Press, China. (in Chinese)[19]Ministry of Water Resources of the China. China WaterResources Bulletin. [2012-03-15] http://www.mwr.gov.cn/zwzc/hygb/szygb/ (in Chinese)[20]Naki enovi N, Swart R. 2000. Special Report on EmissionsScenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.National Bureau of Statistics of China. China’s AgriculturalStatistics 2011. [2012-03-05] http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2011/indexch.htm (in Chinese)[21]National Development and Reform Commission. 2007.China’s National Climate Change Program. [2002-02-15] http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File188.pdf (in Chinese)[22]Parry M L, Rosenzweig C. Iglesias A, Livermore M, FischerG. 2004. Effects of climate change on global foodproduction under SRES emissions and socio-economicscenarios. Global Environment Change, 14, 53-67[23]Piao S L, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z H, Peng S S, Li J S, ZhouL P, Liu H Y, Ma Y C, Ding Y H, et al. 2010. The impactsof climate change on water resources and agriculture inChina. Nature, 467, 43-51[24]Qiu G Y, Yin J, Geng S. 2012. Impact of climate and land-usechanges on water security for agriculture in NorthernChina. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 11, 144-150[25]Reddy V R, Pachepsky Y A. 2000. Predicting crop yields underclimate change conditions from monthly GCM weatherprojections. Environment Model Software, l5, 79-86[26]Seo S N, Mendelsohn R. 2008. A Ricardian analysis of theimpact of climate change on South American farms.Chilean Journal of Agriculture Research, 68, 69-79[27]State Council Information Office. 2008. China’s policiesand actions on climate change. [2011-12-10] http://www.china.org.cn/government/news/200810/29/content_16681689.htm (in Chinese)[28]Tao F L, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z, Sakamoto T, Yokozawa M.2008. Global warming, rice production, and water use inChina: developing a probabilistic assessment.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 94-110[29]Tao F L, Yokozawa F, Xu Y L, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z. 2006.Climate change and trends in phenology and yields offield crops in China, 1981-2000 Agricultural and ForestMeteorology, 138, 82-92[30]Wang Y B, Wu P T, Zhao X N, Li J L. 2010. Developmenttendency of agricultural water structure in China. ChineseJournal of Eco-Agriculture, 18, 399-404 (in Chinese)[31]Wu P T, Zhao X N. 2010. Impact of climate change onagricultural water use and grain production in China.Transactions of the CSAE, 26, 1-6. (in Chinese)[32]Xie L Y, Guo M S, Cao M J, Liu E C, Gao X N. 2009. Strategiesand countermeasures to climate change for agriculturein Northeast China. Advance in Climate ChangeResearch, 5, 174-178[33](in Chinese)Xiong W, Matthews R, Holman I, Lin E, Xu Y. 2007. ModelingChina’s potential maize production at regional scale underclimate change. Climate Change, 85, 433-445[34]Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E, Xu Y L, Ju H, Jiang J H, HolmanI, Li Y. 2009. Future cereal production in China: modelingthe interaction of climate change, water availability andsocio-economic scenarios. Global EnvironmentalChange, 19, 34-44[35]Xu C, Yang X G, Li Y, Wang W F. 2011. Changes of Chinaagricultural climate resources under the background ofclimate change III. Spatiotemporal changecharacteristics of agricultural climate resources inNorthwest Arid area. Chinese Journal of AppliedEcology, 22, 763-772[36](in Chinese)Yang X L, Pang J W. 2006. Implementing China’s “WaterAgenda 21”. Frontiers in Ecology and theEnvironment, 4, 362-368[37]Yao F, Xu Y, Lin E, Yokozawa M, Zhang J. 2007. Assessingthe impacts of climate change on rice yields in the mainrice areas of China. Climate Change, 80, 395-409[38]Zhai P M, Zhang X B, Wan H, Pan X H. 2005. Trends intotal precipitation and frequency of daily precipitationextremes over China. Journal of Climate, 18, 1096-1108[39]Zhang Y, Xu Y L, Dong W J, Cao L J, Sparrow M. 2006. Afuture climate scenario of regional changes in extremeclimate events over China using the PRECIS climatemodel. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, 1-6[40]Zong Y Q, Chen X Q. 2000. The 1998 flood on the Yangtze,China. Natural Hazards, 22, 165-184. |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
