Please wait a minute...
Journal of Integrative Agriculture  2021, Vol. 20 Issue (10): 2601-2612    DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(20)63273-7
Special Issue: 麦类耕作栽培合辑Triticeae Crops Physiology · Biochemistry · Cultivation · Tillage
Crop Science Advanced Online Publication | Current Issue | Archive | Adv Search |
Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain
ZHANG Li1, 2*, CHU Qing-quan1, 2*, JIANG Yu-lin1, 2, CHEN Fu1, 2, LEI Yong-deng1, 2
1 College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, P.R.China
2 Key Laboratory of Farming System, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, P.R.China
Download:  PDF in ScienceDirect  
Export:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      

干旱是造成冬小麦减产的最主要的自然灾害之一,然而气候变化背景下干旱发生的机制及其时空格局仍不明确。本研究基于华北平原1958-2015年气象站点的长时间序列气象数据,采用敏感性分析,M-K检测以及斜率估计等方法,分析了不同气象因素对冬小麦干旱风险的影响机制。结果表明,近60年来冬小麦生育期内气象因子发生了显著的变化,导致冬小麦面临着严重的干旱风险(生长季内水分亏缺量达到350 mm),尤其在拔节-抽穗和抽穗-成熟期这两个产量形成的关键时期面临的干旱威胁更加严重。冬小麦生育阶段的干旱风险和气象因子呈现较大的时空分异特征。尽管降水对于干旱风险格局起主导作用,但是在冬小麦生长的关键阶段,气温升高和相对湿度降低等气象因素的变化都将加剧其干旱风险。过去几十年中近90%的气象站点温度都呈明显的上升趋势,如果未来气温持续升高,冬小麦的水分亏缺和干旱风险将会进一步加剧。研究结果可为作物生产有效适应未来气候变化和保障区域粮食安全提供基础支撑。

Abstract  Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses, while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear. Based on a long-term climatic dataset (during 1958–2015) from weather stations in the North China Plain (NCP), the influencing mechanism of various climatic factors on drought risk of winter wheat was quantified by using sensitivity analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test and slope estimation. The results indicated that climatic factors have changed considerably over the past six decades in the growth season of winter wheat. As a result, winter wheat suffered from severe droughts (with 350 mm of water deficit during its growth season), particularly at the jointing–heading and heading–mature stages, which were critical to crop yield formation. There were large spatial and temporal variations in drought risk and climatic change factors at different growth stages of winter wheat. Despite precipitation playing a vital role in determining the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk, high temperature and low humidity along with other climatic factors at key growth stages of winter wheat aggravated drought risk. Particularly, temperature at nearly 90% weather stations showed a notablely upward trend, which exacerbated water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat. Given the complexity and high uncertainty of climate change, these findings provide important information for adapting crop production to future climate change and accompanied droughts while ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability.
Keywords:  climate change        winter wheat        drought risk        spatiotemporal variations        food security  
Received: 27 February 2020   Accepted:
Fund: This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31801315, 72061147001 and 31871581), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFD0300201), the Major Projects of the National Social Science Foundation of China (18ZDA074), and the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund (2019TC015).
Corresponding Authors:  Correspondence LEI Yong-deng, E-mail:   
About author:  * These authors contributed equally to this study.

Cite this article: 

ZHANG Li, CHU Qing-quan, JIANG Yu-lin, CHEN Fu, LEI Yong-deng. 2021. Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 20(10): 2601-2612.

Ali T, Huang J, Wang J, Xie W. 2017. Global footprints of water and land resources through China’s food trade. Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment, 12, 139–145.
Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, Smith M. 1998. Crop evapotranspiration - Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24.  Food and Agriculture Oragnization of the United Nations,  Rome, Italy.
Bannayan M, Sanjani S, Alizadeh A, Lotfabadi S S, Mohamadian A. 2010. Association between climate indices, aridity index, and rainfed crop yield in northeast of Iran. Field Crops Research, 118, 105–114.
Betts R A, Alfieri L, Bradshaw C, Caesar J, Feyen L, Friedlingstein P, Gohar L, Koutroulis A, Lewis K, Morfopoulos C, Papadimitriou L, Richardson K J, Tsanis I, Wyser K. 2018. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376, 20160452.
Chen C, Baethgen W E, Robertson A. 2013. Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961–2003. Climatic Change, 116, 767–788.
Chen H, Sun J. 2015. Changes in drought characteristics over China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 28, 5430–5447.
Chen H, Wang J, Huang J. 2014. Policy support, social capital, and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 24, 193–202.
Chen Q, Liu Y, Ge Q, Pan T. 2018. Impacts of historic climate variability and land use change on winter wheat climatic productivity in the North China Plain during 1980–2010. Land Use Policy, 76, 1–9.
Dong J, Liu J, Zhang G, Basara J B, Greene S, Xiao X. 2013. Climate change affecting temperature and aridity zones: A case study in Eastern Inner Mongolia, China from 1960–2008. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 113, 561–572.
Estevez J, Gavilan P, Berengena J. 2009. Sensitivity analysis of a Penman-Monteith type equation to estimate reference evapotranspiration in southern Spain. Hydrological Processes, 23, 3342–3353.
Fan J, Wu L, Zhang F, Xiang Y, Zheng J. 2016. Climate change effects on reference crop evapotranspiration across different climatic zones of China during 1956–2015. Journal of Hydrology, 542, 923–937.
Gao C, Li X, Sun Y, Zhou T, Luo G, Chen C. 2019. Water requirement of summer maize at different growth stages and the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural drought in the Huaihe River Basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136, 1289–1302.
GB/T 32136-2015. 2015. Grade of Agricultural Drought. National Agricultural Meteorological Standardization Technical Committee. China Standard Press, Beijing.
Hess A, Iyer H, Malm W. 2001. Linear trend analysis: A comparison of methods. Atmospheric Environment, 35, 5211–5222.
Huang J, Yu H, Guan X, Wang G, Guo R. 2016. Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 6, 166–171.
Huo Z, Dai X, Feng S, Kang S, Huang G. 2013. Effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in arid region of China. Journal of Hydrology, 492, 24–34.
Li J, Chen F, Cook E R, Goua X, Zhang Y. 2007. Drought reconstruction for north central China from tree rings: The value of the Palmer drought severity index. International Journal of Climatology, 27, 903–909.
Li Y, Huang H, Ju H, Lin E, Xiong W, Han X, Wang H, Peng Z, Wang Y, Xu J, Cao Y, Hu W. 2015. Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity to potential drought for winter-wheat under the RCP 8.5 scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 209, 125–131.
Liu B, Huang Z, Chen X, Wang Z. 2019. Effects of large-scale climate anomalies on crop reference evapotranspiration in the main grain-production area of China. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 1195–1212.
Liu T, Li L, Lai J, Liu C, Zhuang W. 2016. Reference evapotranspiration change and its sensitivity to climate variables in southwest China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 125, 499–508.
Lobell D B, Ortiz-Monasterio J I. 2007. Impacts of day versus night temperatures on spring wheat yields: A comparison of empirical and CERES model predictions in three locations. Agronomy Journal, 99, 469–477.
Lobell D B, Torney A, Field C B. 2011. Climate extremes in California agriculture. Climatic Change, 109, 355–363.
McVicar T R, Roderick M L, Donohue R J, Li L T, Van Niel T G, Thomas A, Grieser J, Jhajharia D, Himri Y, Mahowald N M, Mescherskaya A V, Kruger A C, Rehman S, Dinpashoh Y. 2012. Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds: Implications for evaporation. Journal of Hydrology, 416, 182–205.
Nam W H, Hong E M, Choi J Y. 2015. Has climate change already affected the spatial distribution and temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration in South Korea? Agricultural Water Management, 150, 129–138.
Park S, Im J, Park S, Rhee J. 2017. Drought monitoring using high resolution soil moisture through multi-sensor satellite data fusion over the Korean peninsula. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 237, 257–269.
Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y, Ding Y, Friedlingstein P, Liu C, Tan K, Yu Y, Zhang T, Fang J. 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467, 43–51.
Seidel S J, Barfus K, Gaiser T, Nguyen T H, Lazarovitch N. 2019. The influence of climate variability, soil and sowing date on simulation-based crop coefficient curves and irrigation water demand. Agricultural Water Management, 221, 73–83.
Sen P K. 1968. Estimates of regression coefficient based on kendalls Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379.
Shi J, Wang Z, Zhang Z, Fei Y, Li Y, Zhang F, Chen J, Qian Y. 2010. Assessment of over-exploitation of deep groundwater in the North China Plain. Earth Science Frontiers, 17, 215–220.
Some’e B S, Ezani A, Tabari H. 2013. Spatiotemporal trends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 111, 149–160.
Sommer R, Glazirina M, Yuldashev T, Otarov A, Ibraeva M, Martynova L, Bekenov M, Kholov B, Ibragimov N, Kobilov R, Karaev S, Sultonov M, Khasanova F, Esanbekov M, Mavlyanov D, Isaev S, Abdurahimov S, Ikramov R, Shezdyukova L, de Pauw E. 2013. Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Central Asia. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 178, 78–99.
Tack J, Barkley A, Nalley L L. 2015. Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112, 6931–6936.
Ti J, Yang Y, Yin X, Liang J, Pu L, Jiang Y, Wen X, Chen F. 2018. Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological elements in the North China District of China during 1960–2015. Water, 10, 789.
Trnka M, Olesen J E, Kersebaum K C, Skjelvag A O, Eitzinger J, Seguin B, Peltonen-Sainio P, Rotter R, Iglesias A, Orlandini S, Dubrovsky M, Hlavinka P, Balek J, Eckersten H, Cloppet E, Calanca P, Gobin A, Vucetic V, Nejedlik P, Kumar S. 2011. Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change. Global Change Biology, 17, 2298–2318.
Wang D. 2017. Water use efficiency and optimal supplemental irrigation in a high yield wheat field. Field Crops Research, 213, 213–220.
Wang H, Vicente-serrano S M, Tao F, Zhang X, Wang P, Zhang C, Chen Y, Zhu D, El Kenawy A. 2016. Monitoring winter wheat drought threat in Northern China using multiple climate-based drought indices and soil moisture during 2000–2013. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 228, 1–12.
Wang Y, Zhang Y, Zhang R, Li J, Zhang M, Zhou S, Wang Z. 2018. Reduced irrigation increases the water use efficiency and productivity of winter wheat–summer maize rotation on the North China Plain. Science of the Total Environment, 618, 112–120.
Wu X, Wang P, Huo Z, Wu D, Yang J. 2018. Crop drought identification index for winter wheat based on evapotranspiration in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 263, 18–30.
Xie W, Xiong W, Pan J, Ali T, Cui Q, Guan D, Meng J, Mueller N D, Lin E, Davis S J. 2018. Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat. Nature Plants, 4, 964–973.
Xu C Y, Gong L, Jiang T, Chen D, Singh V P. 2006. Analysis of spatial distribution and temporal trend of reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in Changjiang (Yangtze River) catchment. Journal of Hydrology, 327, 81–93.
Yang J, Xiong W, Yang X G, Cao Y, Feng L Z. 2014. Geographic variation of rice yield response to past climate change in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1586–1598.
Yang X, Chen F, Lin X, Liu Z, Zhang H, Zhao J, Li K, Ye Q, Li Y, Lv S, Yang P, Wu W, Li Z, Lal R, Tang H. 2015. Potential benefits of climate change for crop productivity in China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 208, 76–84.
Yang X, Liu Y, Bai W, Liu B. 2017. Spatiotemporal assessment of drought related to soybean production and sensitivity analysis in Northeast China. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 56, 937–952.
Yao Y, Lv L, Zhang L, Yao H, Dong Z, Zhang J, Ji J, Jia X, Wang H. 2019. Genetic gains in grain yield and physiological traits of winter wheat in Hebei Province of China, from 1964 to 2007. Field Crops Research, 239, 114–123.
Yin X G, Jabloun M, Olesen J E, Ozturk I, Wang M, Chen F. 2016. Effects of climatic factors, drought risk and irrigation requirement on maize yield in the Northeast Farming Region of China. Journal of Agricultural Science, 154, 1171–1189.
Yu M, Li Q, Hayes M J, Svoboda M D, Heim R R. 2014. Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: 1951–2010? International Journal of Climatology, 34, 545–558.
Zarch M A A, Sivakumar B, Sharma A. 2015. Assessment of global aridity change. Journal of Hydrology, 520, 300–313.
Zhang K X, Pan S M, Zhang W, Xu Y H, Cao L G, Hao Y P, Wang Y. 2015. Influence of climate change on reference evapotranspiration and aridity index and their temporal-spatial variations in the Yellow River Basin, China, from 1961 to 2012. Quaternary International, 380, 75–82.
Zhang X, Kang S, Zhang L, Liu J. 2010. Spatial variation of climatology monthly crop reference evapotranspiration and sensitivity coefficients in Shiyang river basin of northwest China. Agricultural Water Management, 97, 1506–1516.
Zou X, Li Y E, Gao Q, Wan Y. 2012. How water saving irrigation contributes to climate change resilience - A case study of practices in China. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 17, 111–132.
[1] XIAN Xiao-qing, ZHAO Hao-xiang, GUO Jian-yang, ZHANG Gui-fen, LIU Hui, LIU Wan-xue, WAN Fang-hao. Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of a new potato pest (Schrankia costaestrigalis) in China under climate change[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(8): 2441-2455.
[2] FAN Ting-lu, LI Shang-zhong, ZHAO Gang, WANG Shu-ying, ZHANG Jian-jun, WANG Lei, DANG Yi, CHENG Wan-li. Response of dryland crops to climate change and drought-resistant and water-suitable planting technology: A case of spring maize[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(7): 2067-2079.
[3] PAN Song, PENG De-liang, LI Ying-mei, CHEN Zhi-jie, ZHAI Ying-yan, LIU Chen, HONG Bo. Potential global distribution of the guava root-knot nematode Meloidogyne enterolobii under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(7): 2138-2150.
[4] Oluwaseyi Samuel OLANREWAJU, Olubukola Oluranti BABALOLA. The rhizosphere microbial complex in plant health: A review of interaction dynamics[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2022, 21(8): 2168-2182.
[5] Rob VOS, Andrea CATTANEO. Poverty reduction through the development of inclusive food value chains[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(4): 964-978.
[6] ZHANG Pan-pan, CHEN Yu-lu, WANG Chen-yang, MA Geng, LÜ Jun-jie, LIU Jing-bao, GUO Tian-cai. Distribution and accumulation of zinc and nitrogen in wheat grain pearling fractions in response to foliar zinc and soil nitrogen applications[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(12): 3277-3288.
[7] WANG Rui, WANG Ying, HU Ya-xian, DANG Ting-hui, GUO Sheng-li. Divergent responses of tiller and grain yield to fertilization and fallow precipitation: Insights from a 28-year long-term experiment in a semiarid winter wheat system[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(11): 3003-3011.
[8] HE Dun-chun, Jeremy J. BURDON, XIE Lian-hui, Jiasui ZHAN. Triple bottom-line consideration of sustainable plant disease management: From economic, sociological and ecological perspectives[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(10): 2581-2591.
[9] WU Jian-zhai, ZHANG Jing, GE Zhang-ming, XING Li-wei, HAN Shu-qing, SHEN Chen, KONG Fan-tao . Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(1): 289-299.
[10] CAI Dong-yu, YAN Hai-jun, LI Lian-hao. Effects of water application uniformity using a center pivot on winter wheat yield, water and nitrogen use efficiency in the North China Plain[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2020, 19(9): 2326-2339.
[11] LIU Xin, WANG Wen-xin, LIN Xiang, GU Shu-bo, WANG Dong. The effects of intraspecific competition and light transmission within the canopy on wheat yield in a wide-precision planting pattern[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2020, 19(6): 1577-1585.
[12] CHEN Jin, PANG Dang-wei, JIN Min, LUO Yong-li, LI Hao-yu, LI Yong, WANG Zhen-lin.
Improved soil characteristics in the deeper plough layer can increase grain yield of winter wheat
[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2020, 19(5): 1215-1226.
[13] YI Fu-jin, FENG Jia-ao, WANG Yan-jun, JIANG Fei.
Influence of surface ozone on crop yield of maize in China
[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2020, 19(2): 578-589.
[14] ZHOU Su-mei, ZHANG Man, ZHANG Ke-ke, YANG Xi-wen, HE De-xian, YIN Jun, WANG Chen-yang. Effects of reduced nitrogen and suitable soil moisture on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) rhizosphere soil microbiological, biochemical properties and yield in the Huanghuai Plain, China[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2020, 19(1): 234-250.
[15] Nathana?l PINGAULT, Patrick CARON, Alicia KOLMANS, Stefanie LEMKE, Carol KALAFATIC, Sabine ZIKELI, Ann WATERS-BAYER, Carolin CALLENIUS, QIN Yong-jun . Moving beyond the opposition of diverse knowledge systems for food security and nutrition[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2020, 19(1): 291-293.
No Suggested Reading articles found!