Modelling spatio-temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon in paddy soil by coupling digital soil mapping with a process model

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2025.11.006

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Zheng Wang^{1, 2}, Songchao Chen^{1, 2, 3}, Ruiying Zhao⁴, Jie Xue⁵, Qiangyi Yu⁶, Danqing Wei^{1, 2, 7}, Wei Chen⁸, Qichun Zhang^{1, 2}, Zhou Shi^{1, 2}^#

¹ State Key Laboratory of Soil Pollution Control and Safety, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

² College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

³ ZJU-Hangzhou Global Scientific and Technological Innovation Center, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 311215, China

⁴ Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, 117570, Singapore

⁵ Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

⁶ Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

⁷ Zhejiang Economic Information Center, Hangzhou 310006, China

⁸ Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Jiashan County, Jiaxing 314100, China

Highlights

l The Well-facilitated Farmland Construction project can prevent SOC loss

l The temporal variation of SOCD is influenced by straw incorporation and irrigation

l Coupling the DSM and CENTURY is an effective approach to simulate the SOC dynamics

Abstract
References

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摘要

土壤有机碳（SOC）作为养分触发器起着至关重要的作用，直接影响土壤健康和农业生产。当前，中国正在进行的高标准农田建设（WFC）项目是一项综合农业管理策略，这将改变农田土壤环境，进而影响SOC的时空动态变化。然而，在高标准农田建设背景下，SOC时空变化并不明晰。为了解决这个问题，本研究选取了中国东南地区2022年建成的高标准农田为研究区，在2023年采集了202个表层土样本（0-20cm），利用数字土壤制图（DSM）技术和CENTURY模型，绘制了土壤关键属性时空分布，并模拟了SOC密度（SOCD）的时空变化。结果表明，2023年SOCD的范围是1.23至6.35 kg m^-2，平均值为3.68 kg m^-2；研究区内土壤pH、粘土和含沙量是影响SOCD空间分布的主要因素。CENTURY模型模拟结果表明，从2010年到2021年，即WFC项目开始之前，SOCD呈下降趋势，在WFC实施后，预计从2022年到2030年将有所增加，这可能是由于合理灌溉和秸秆还田增加了有机碳的固存和输入。此外，我们假设了未来不进行WFC项目的情景，结果表明，从2022年到2030年，SOCD将持续下降，这突显了WFC在防止SOC流失方面具有重要的作用。空间模拟结果表明，2021年和2030年SOCD的空间格局相似，低值区域的增长率高于高SOCD水平的区域，表明SOCD水平较低的特定田间地块可以通过改善土壤管理来固定更多的碳。总之，WFC项目有可能增加水稻土中的有机碳固存和粮食产量，确保粮食安全和应对气候变化。

Abstract

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role as a nutrient trigger and directly impacts soil health and agricultural productivity. In China, the Well-facilitated Farmland Construction (WFC) project is a comprehensive agricultural management strategy, changing the soil environment and then influencing the SOC dynamics. However, the long-term trajectory of SOC under the implementation of the WFC project remains unclear. To address this knowledge gap, this study focused on farmland in southeastern China that completed the WFC project in 2022. A total of 202 topsoil samples (0-20 cm) were collected from the regional paddy soil in 2023. Using digital soil mapping (DSM) and the CENTURY model, we delineated key soil properties and simulated the spatio-temporal changes of SOC density (SOCD). The results revealed that the SOCD ranged from 1.23 to 6.35 kg m^-2, with an average value of 3.68 kg m^-2 in 2023. Soil pH, clay, and sand content were primary factors influencing SOCD distribution. According to CENTURY model simulations, SOCD exhibited a declining trend from 2010 to 2021, while it was projected to increase from 2022 to 2030 following the WFC implementation, which could be attributed to enhancements in irrigation and straw incorporation. Besides, the scenario without WFC results shows that SOCD would decline from 2022 to 2030, underscoring the project’s effectiveness in preventing SOC loss for paddy soil. The spatial patterns of SOCD in 2021 and 2030 were similar, and the low-value areas showed faster increase rates than the areas with high SOCD levels, indicating that the specific field plots with lower SOCD levels could sequester more carbon with improved soil management. In conclusion, the WFC project can potentially increase SOC sequestration in the paddy soil and grain yield, ensuring food security and addressing climate change.

Keywords: soil organic carbon well-facilitated farmland construction spatio-temporal variation digital soil mapping CENTURY model

Online: 07 November 2025

Fund:

This research is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFB3903505 and 2022YFB3903503). We highly appreciate the great efforts from two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

About author: Zheng Wang, E-mail: wangzheng96@zju.edu.cn; Correspondence Zhou Shi, E-mail: shizhou@zju.edu.cn

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Zheng Wang, Songchao Chen, Ruiying Zhao, Jie Xue, Qiangyi Yu, Danqing Wei, Wei Chen, Qichun Zhang, Zhou Shi. 2025. Modelling spatio-temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon in paddy soil by coupling digital soil mapping with a process model. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, Doi:10.1016/j.jia.2025.11.006

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