Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (18): 3989-4003.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.18.003

• TILLAGE & CULTIVATION·PHYSIOLOGY & BIOCHEMISTRY·AGRICULTURE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Wheat Adaptability Evaluation and Identification of High-Yield and Stable-Yield Cultivars Based on Time-Series Multi-Temporal Canopy Spectroscopy

YU LiQiang1(), YAO DongZe1,2(), FEI ShuaiPeng2, LI HuiLi1, GUO XianRui1,2, YAO DanYu2, ZHANG HongJun1,2, ZHOU Yang1,2, XIAO YongGui1,2()   

  1. 1 Zhaoxian Experimental Base, Shijiazhuang Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Zhaoxian 051530, Hebei
    2 Institute of Crop Sciences, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/National Key Laboratory of Crop Gene Resources and Breeding/Crop Molecular Breeding Engineering Laboratory, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2026-01-27 Accepted:2026-06-11 Online:2026-09-16 Published:2026-09-20
  • Contact: XIAO YongGui

Abstract:

【Objective】Aiming at the problem that traditional single-temporal spectroscopy is difficult to accurately acquire time-series dynamic phenotyping throughout the whole wheat growth period and has insufficient capability for evaluating high-yield and stable-yield potential, this study integrates the full-growth-period time-series hyperspectral features with the Stacking ensemble learning algorithm to construct a method for evaluating and selecting wheat germplasm with stable yield potential, which takes into account both qualitative classification and quantitative yield estimation.【Method】This study selected 100 winter wheat genotypes as test materials. Canopy hyperspectral images were collected at 16 key growth stages over two consecutive years (2022-2023 and 2023-2024). The temporal mean (cumulative photosynthetic potential), standard deviation (stay-green stability) and maximum value (maximum growth potential) of the time-series spectral vegetation indices were calculated. A 21-dimensional feature space containing temporal statistical features and interaction features was constructed for dimensionality reduction and information enrichment. After applying within-year standardization to eliminate annual sensor and environmental drift, the K-Means algorithm (K=3) was applied to classify 195 valid variety-year samples under an unsupervised framework. On this basis, a stacking ensemble regression model was trained on 92 samples from the first year to predict the yield of 98 unseen genotypes in the second year (Leave-One-Year-Out validation), with Variance Inflation applied to address the regression toward the mean problem.【Result】The principal components analysis (PCA) results showed that the first two PCs successfully interpreted cumulative photosynthetic potential and growth stability, with a cumulative variance contribution rate exceeding 85%. The subsequent K-means clustering classified the varieties into three categories: high-yield and stable-yield, general adaptability and low-yield sensitive. Subgroup-level yield variance analysis showed highly significant differences in measured plot yield among the three groups (F=17.83, P=7.91×10-8), and the average plot yield of the high-yield stable-yield group was 17.61% higher than that of the low-yield sensitive group. Evaluated against within-year yield tertiles as ground truth, the overall classification accuracy (OA) reached 50.77% (Kappa=0.263), and the safety retention rate for high-yielding genotypes reached 93.94%, confirming that this unsupervised framework could effectively identify and eliminate low-performing germplasm. Feature analysis showed that whole-growth-period GNDVI and OSAVI contributed highly to evaluating the high-yielding groups. This physiologically explained that green and red-edge bands had stronger canopy penetration than the red band, effectively overcoming the saturation limitation of traditional NDVI under high canopy closure in the mid-to-late growth stages. In the cross-year independent validation, the predicted yields were significantly correlated with the measured yields (r=0.51, P=1.99×10-7, RMSE=0.38 t·hm-2), and the prediction slope was successfully adjusted to 0.31.【Conclusion】This study verified the effectiveness of time-series dynamic canopy spectroscopy in identifying stable and high-yielding wheat genotypes, and proposed a breeding decision-making framework combining qualitative screening with quantitative ranking, which provided a methodological reference for germplasm selection.

Key words: winter wheat, canopy hyperspectral, whole growth period, adaptability evaluation, yield prediction, ensemble learning

Fig. 1

Overview of study location, field trial, UAV hyperspectral platform and plot canopy reflectance extraction workflow A: Custom experimental layout; B: Overview of the field experiment; C: DJI M600 PRO UAV equipped with Cubert UHD S185; D: Canopy reflectance extraction of experimental plots using ArcGIS 10.8"

Table 1

Comparison of key phenological dates between the 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 growing seasons"

序号
No.
生育时期
Growth stage
日期 Date 差异
Difference
2023-2024 2024-2025
1 拔节期 Jointing stage 04-08 04-05 -3 d
2 孕穗期 Booting stage 04-19 04-17 -2 d
3 抽穗期 Heading stage 04-25 04-25 0 d
4 开花期 Anthesis stage 04-29 05-01 +2 d
5 籽粒形成期 Grain formation stage 05-07 05-09 +2 d
6 灌浆初期 Early grain-filling stage 05-12 05-13 +1 d
7 灌浆中期 Mid grain-filling stage 05-18 05-18 0 d
8 灌浆后期Late grain-filling stage 05-24 05-23 -1 d

Table 2

Vegetation index comparison table"

植被指数 Vegetation index 全称 Full name 计算公式 Formula
NDVI 归一化植被指数Normalized difference vegetation index (R800-R670)/(R800+R670)
EVI 增强型植被指数
Enhanced vegetation index
$\text{2.5}\times \frac{{\text{R}}_{\text{800}}{\text{-R}}_{\text{670}}}{{\text{R}}_{\text{800}}+{\text{6R}}_{\text{670}}{\text{-7.5R}}_{\text{450}}+\text{1}}$
RVI 比值植被指数Ratio vegetation index R800/R670
OSAVI 优化土壤调整植被指数
Optimized soil adjusted vegetation index
$\frac{{\text{R}}_{\text{800}}{\text{-R}}_{\text{670}}}{{\text{R}}_{\text{800}}+{\text{R}}_{\text{670}}+\text{0}.16}\times \text{(1}+\text{0.16)}$
GNDVI 绿波段归一化植被指数Green normalized difference vegetation index (R800-R550)/(R800+R550)
NDWI 归一化水体指数Normalized difference water index (R860-R1240)/(R860+R1240)
REPI 红边位置指数
Red edge position index
$\text{700}+\text{40}\times \frac{\text{(R670-R780})/2{\text{-R}}_{\text{700}}}{{\text{R}}_{\text{740}}{\text{-R}}_{\text{700}}}$

Fig. 2

Architecture of the Stacking ensemble prediction model"

Fig. 3

Pearson correlation matrix between canopy spectral features and yield throughout the whole growth period NDVI_mean: Normalized difference vegetation index mean; NDVI_std: Normalized difference vegetation index standard deviation; NDVI_max: Normalized difference vegetation index maximum; GNDVI_mean: Green normalized difference vegetation index mean; GNDVI_std: Green normalized difference vegetation index standard deviation; GNDVI_max: Green normalized difference vegetation index maximum; EVI_mean: Enhanced vegetation index mean; EVI_std: Enhanced vegetation index standard deviation; EVI_max: Enhanced vegetation index maximum; OSAVI_mean: Optimized soil-adjusted vegetation index mean; OSAVI_std: Optimized soil-adjusted vegetation index standard deviation; OSAVI_max: Optimized soil-adjusted vegetation index maximum; RVI_mean: Ratio vegetation index mean; RVI_std: Ratio vegetation index standard deviation; RVI_max: Ratio vegetation index maximum; Yield: Measured yield. The same as below"

Fig. 4

Scree plot of PCA and cumulative explained variance ratio"

Fig. 5

PCA biplot of spectral adaptability for wheat varieties"

Fig. 6

Hierarchical clustering heatmap of spectral fingerprints for different adaptability subgroups"

Fig. 7

Multi-dimensional radar chart comparison of key spectral features among adaptability subgroups"

Fig. 8

Confusion matrix for classification of wheat adaptive subpopulations"

Fig. 9

Validation of measured yield distribution based on spectral classification"

Fig. 10

Ranking of importance of key yield drivers based on an ensemble learning model"

Fig. 11

Performance evaluation of yield prediction model based on Stacking ensemble learning"

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