中国农业面源污染防治政策的演进、实践逻辑与有效性测量

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.08.010

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Policies for controlling agricultural non-point source pollution (ANPSP) serve as the primary basis for guiding agricultural environmental governance. A systematic analysis of the policy logic of China’s ANPSP control urgently requires academic attention. This study took 469 ANPSP control policies issued by the State Council and relevant ministries and commissions from 1978 to 2022 as the research object, and systematically analyzed the evolutionary context and practical logic of China’s ANPSP control policies and measures the effectiveness of policy texts. 【Method】Policy text analysis was adopted to clarify the evolutionary path of ANPSP control policies. The Ambiguity-Conflict Model and the Three-Dimensional Theoretical Framework Based on the Institutional Environment were revised and applied to explain the practical logic of these policies, and text mining was used to measure their effectiveness. 【Result】China’s ANPSP control policies have gone through five stages, including the stage of policy incubation, the stage of policy initiation, the stage of policy establishment, the stage of policy adjustment, and the stage of policy deepening, and have basically formed a policy framework characterized by "equal emphasis on macro systems and micro rules, parallel advancement of vertical transmission and horizontal connection, and simultaneous implementation of systematic governance and source control." The logic of formulating and issuing ANPSP control policies followed the sequence of "legislation first, adjustment later, and practice finally." The implementation logic presented differentiated implementation modes and dominant factors in different stages, while the deviation logic stemmed from induced flexibility caused by environmental regulations, government incentives, and subject cognition. The number of ANPSP control policies and their comprehensive force both showed a fluctuating upward trend. Specifically, policy efforts presented a "high first, then low" trend; policy objectives continued to focus on reducing the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers, promoting the management of livestock and poultry manure, and improving the efficiency of straw utilization; policy measures generally showed the characteristics of administrative regulation > technical support > economic incentive > educational guidance; and the departmental synergy, objective synergy, and measure synergy of relevant policies have all significantly enhanced. 【Conclusion】Since the reform and opening-up, the Chinese government has increasingly advocated to control the ANPSP through policy intervention. It has focused on addressing the drawbacks of adaptability, ambiguity and inducement in such policies by strengthening top-level design, clarifying main responsibilities and improving supporting mechanisms. China has achieved remarkable results in ANPSP control lending by administrative forces, which could provide reference for the optimization and adjustment of ANPSP control policies in developing countries worldwide.

Key words: agricultural non-point source pollution, agricultural policy evolution, effectiveness, ambiguity-conflict model, text mining, China

ZOU LiLin. Evolution, Practical Logic, and Effectiveness Measurement of China’s Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Control Policies[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(8): 1727-1747.

Figures/Tables 11

Table 1

Table 2

Quantitative criteria of agricultural non-point source pollution control policies’ objectives"

政策目标 Policy objective	分值 Score	政策目标评分标准 Score criteria of policy objectives
树立污染防治理念 Establish the concept of pollution control	5	从立法角度要求加大污染防治宣传，全面提升污染防治意识，并制定了详细的工作方案 From a legislative perspective, it is required to strengthen the publicity of pollution control, comprehensively enhance the awareness of pollution control, and formulate detailed work plans
	3	政府十分支持树立污染防治理念，并明确要求制定全面提升污染防治意识的方案或办法 The government strongly supports the establishment of pollution prevention principles and explicitly mandates the development of plans or measures to comprehensively enhance pollution prevention awareness
	1	仅提及上述内容，但未出台相关措施办法 It only mentions the above content without introducing any related measures or methods
建立高效节水体系 Build an efficient water-saving system	5	从立法角度对农业节水管理提出了强制性规定，并制定了详细的标准 From a legislative perspective, mandatory regulations on agricultural water management are introduced, along with detailed standards
	3	政府十分支持建立高效农业节水体系，并明确要求制定具体的方案或办法 The government strongly supports the establishment of an efficient agricultural water-saving system and explicitly mandates the development of specific plans or measures
	1	仅提及上述内容，但未出台相关措施与办法 It only mentions the above content without introducing any related measures or methods
减少农药化肥使用 Reduce the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers	5	从立法角度对农药化肥生产、管理等环节提出了强制性规定，并制定了详细的减量措施 From a legislative perspective, mandatory regulations are established for the production and management of pesticides and fertilizers, accompanied by detailed measures for the reduction
	3	政府十分支持减少农药化肥使用，并明确要求制定相关方案或办法 The government strongly supports reducing the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers and has explicitly required the formulation of relevant plans or measures
	1	仅提及上述内容，但未出台相关措施与办法 It only mentions the above content without introducing any related measures or methods
推进禽畜粪尿治理 Promote the management of livestock and poultry manure	5	从立法角度对畜禽养殖污染防治提出了强制性规定，并制定了标准化管理办法 From a legislative perspective, mandatory regulations are established for the pollution control from livestock and poultry farming, accompanied by the development of detailed standard management procedures
	3	政府十分支持推进禽畜养殖污染治理，并明确要求制定的具体方案或办法 The government strongly supports advancing pollution control in livestock and poultry farming and explicitly mandates the development of specific plans or measures
	1	仅提及上述内容，但未出台相关措施与办法 It only mentions the above content without introducing any related measures or methods
提高秸秆利用效率 Improve the efficiency of straw utilization	5	从立法角度对秸秆资源化利用提出了强制性规定，并制定了详细的标准 From a legislative perspective, mandatory regulations are established concerning the resource utilization of straws, accompanied by detailed standards
	3	政府十分支持开展秸秆资源化利用，并明确要求制定具体方案或办法 The government strongly supports enhancing the resource utilization of straws and mandates the development of specific plans or measures
	1	仅提及上述内容，但未出台相关措施与办法 It only mentions the above content without introducing any related measures or methods
推进农业固碳减排 Advance agricultural carbon sequestration and emission reduction	5	从立法角度对推进农业固碳减排提出了强制性规定，并制定了详细的技术标准 From a legislative perspective, mandatory provisions have been put forward for promoting agricultural carbon sequestration and emission reduction, and detailed technical standards have been formulated
	3	政府十分支持推进农业固碳减排，并明确要求制定具体方案或办法 The government strongly supports promoting agricultural carbon sequestration and emission reduction, and explicitly requires the formulation of specific plans or measures.
	1	仅提及上述内容，但未出台相关措施与办法 It only mentions the above content without introducing any related measures or methods

Table 2

Table 3

Quantitative criteria of agricultural non-point source pollution control policies’ measures"

政策措施 Policy measure	分值 Score	政策措施评分标准 Score criteria of policy measures
行政规制 Administrative regulations	5	对产生农业面源污染的项目实施严格的行政审批与上级控制，并制定了专门的管理办法 Strict administrative examination and approval and superior control are implemented for projects that generate agricultural non-point source pollution, and special management measures have been formulated
	3	制定了关于减少农业面源污染考核、监督、检查的补充性政策或制度 Supplementary policies for the assessment, supervision, and inspection of reducing agricultural pollution have been formulated
	1	对相关的管理控制较为松散，或仅谈及上述条款 The management controls related to this issue are relatively lax or only address the aforementioned provisions
经济激励 Economic incentives	5	制定了详细的税收、补贴、罚款等措施，并且针对各项措施列出了明确数额或比例 Detailed measures such as taxation, subsidies, and fines have been formulated, with clear amounts or proportions specified for each measure
	3	列出了相关的激励措施，但缺少具体数额或比例 Relevant incentive measures are outlined, but lacking specific amounts or proportions
	1	仅提及加强经济激励，但没有具体的举措 Only mention is made of strengthening economic incentives, but there are no specific measures
技术支持 Technical support	5	明确提及研发或推广某项具体的技术，并针对该项技术做出了详细的说明 A specific technology for development or promotion is explicitly mentioned, and detailed explanations are provided for that technology
	3	明确提出技术支持，并且针对该项技术做出了较为具体的说明，或列举了多项具体的技术 Technical support is clearly proposed, and specific explanations are given for the technology, or multiple specific technologies are listed
	1	仅谈及鼓励相关技术的开发运用 It only mentions encouraging the development and application of relevant technologies
教育引导 Educational guidance	5	明确提出引导农村或农民加强对农业面源污染防治的关注与治理，并制定了具体的方案措施 It clearly proposes to guide rural areas or farmers to strengthen their attention to agricultural pollution control, and formulates specific plans
	3	提出加强对农业面源污染防治的宣传，并提出相关引导措施但不够具体 It is proposed to strengthen the publicity on pollution control, and relevant guiding measures are put forward but not specific enough
	1	仅提及鼓励对教育宣传措施的运用，但未出台的具体措施 Only the use of educational and publicity measures is mentioned as being encouraged, but no specific measures have been introduced

Table 3

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Table 4

Table 5

Objective synergy degree of China’s agricultural non-point source pollution control policies"

年份 Year	目标3&1 Objective 3&1	目标3&2 Objective 3&2	目标3&4 Objective 3&4	目标3&5 Objective 3&5	目标3&6 Objective 3&6	目标4&1 Objective 4&1	目标4&2 Objective 4&2	目标4&5 Objective 4&5	目标4&6 Objective 4&6	目标5&1 Objective 5&1	目标5&2 Objective 5&2	目标5&6 Objective 5&6
1978	0	0	4.44	0	11.11	0	0	0	4.44	0	0	0
1979	0	0	34.22	24.44	45.89	0	0	15.56	21.78	0	0	15.56
1981	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1982	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1983	0	1.67	5.00	0	11.11	0	1.67	0	0	0	0	0
1984	0	0	15.00	0	5.00	0	0	0	1.67	0	0	0
1988	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1989	0	0	27.00	27.00	11.67	0	0	27.00	0	0	0	0
1990	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1991	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1993	0	140.00	180.00	106.67	15.00	0	122.67	89.33	11.00	0	81.33	13.00
1994	0	0	0	0	11.11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1995	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1996	0	4.67	29.00	18.33	9.67	0	6	10	7.67	0	3.33	3.33
1997	30.00	0	0	10.00	0	0	0	0	0	16.67	0	0
1998	0	0	0	0	11.11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1999	15.00	0	15.00	35.00	0	9.00	0	15.00	0	15.00	0	0
2000	0	5.00	35.00	0	43.33	0	3.89	0	0	0	0	19.44
2001	13.00	4.33	13.00	10.11	21.67	9.00	3.00	7.00	15.00	7.00	2.33	11.67
2002	99.78	12.11	122.67	27.33	29.67	90.78	17.11	35.78	24.78	20.67	7.33	19.11
2003	35.56	133.33	164.00	60.67	4.67	32.33	150.00	44.89	1.67	1.00	28.33	0
2004	23.67	7.22	27.44	6.33	21.67	69.33	72.22	13.00	21.67	7.00	1.67	5.00
2005	44.11	184.67	180.00	84.11	139.33	31.67	202.78	196.22	151.00	22.00	99.33	53.33
2006	70.67	125.78	159.67	133.67	46.00	91.33	194.22	155.00	66.00	53.11	124.44	49.56
2007	224.22	222.33	397.11	422.89	277.44	286.67	249.67	546.00	343.00	271.56	269.67	345.33
2008	94.00	150.22	320.33	111.67	142.00	108.89	181.33	139.89	146.22	38.33	123.33	87.33
2009	13.33	43.67	46.89	115.78	98.56	10.67	36.33	19.22	14.22	4.67	63.78	74.89
2010	36.78	73.00	74.67	79.00	75.44	60.67	174.78	100.11	159.78	31.33	103.67	96.78
2011	188.00	204.89	268.22	227.44	211.33	187.33	254.67	241.56	218.33	105.00	216.78	181.00
2012	83.89	248.11	198.56	158.67	200.67	139.56	220.67	206.89	253.67	86.78	166.67	157.11
2013	34.33	137.78	294.00	122.44	190.00	30.00	173.56	224.11	159.89	21.33	122.67	139.11
2014	44.22	31.00	67.33	66.00	58.67	100.33	89.00	182.67	159.33	94.33	80.00	146.44
2015	314.67	404.89	515.00	421.00	433.44	356.56	418.44	499.00	390.00	260.33	369.00	407.78
2016	324.89	373.67	647.00	586.11	467.67	340.11	432.22	526.67	426.89	302.00	304.67	461.33
2017	378.89	580.22	844.11	744.78	596.67	331.00	491.56	745.11	543.78	314.33	487.56	539.56
2018	256.67	321.22	830.33	570.67	480.67	295.33	472.00	555.33	500.11	259.33	335.33	440.78
2019	63.67	197.44	399.67	420.22	338.78	66.11	170.89	394.67	274.67	43.44	164.44	325.67
2020	8.33	40.67	39.44	43.44	54.00	11.00	35.67	169.33	78.11	16.33	29.56	168.11
2021	230.44	422.89	616.11	433.78	540.67	242.00	393.67	508.56	575.00	169.67	296.56	470.33
2022	179.00	162.44	405.89	464.67	509.78	244.22	191.00	405.11	479.67	178.00	182.89	561.67

Table 5

Table 6

Measures synergy degree of China’s agricultural non-point source pollution control policies"

年份 Year	措施1&2 Measure 1&2	措施1&3 Measure 1&3	措施1&4 Measure 1&4	措施3&1 Measure 3&1	措施3&2 Measure 3&2	措施3&4 Measure 3&4	年份 Year	措施1&2 Measure 1&2	措施1&3 Measure 1&3	措施1&4 Measure 1&4	措施3&1 Measure 3&1	措施3&2 Measure 3&2	措施3&4 Measure 3&4
1978	75.11	40.44	23.11	40.44	40.44	12.44	2003	214.11	135.44	126.50	135.44	74.33	48.56
1979	131.67	98.33	108.33	98.33	65.44	42.56	2004	18.11	18.78	16.33	18.78	5.89	5.44
1981	60.00	46.67	46.67	46.67	28.00	21.78	2005	204.22	152.56	118.78	152.56	78.11	67.44
1982	6.67	60.00	86.67	60.00	4.00	52.00	2006	316.22	207.11	123.44	207.11	156.67	85.89
1983	100.11	65.44	37.22	65.44	45.44	17.22	2007	294.11	338.22	332.22	338.22	231.22	208.67
1984	75.00	41.67	25.00	41.67	25.00	8.33	2008	320.67	232.89	142.56	232.89	145.22	91.33
1988	65.00	21.67	7.22	21.67	15.00	1.67	2009	66.78	75.33	55.22	75.33	36.67	64.00
1989	83.33	55.00	41.67	55.00	11.67	8.33	2010	212.44	182.22	115.78	182.22	86.22	86.56
1990	1.33	2.67	2.67	2.67	0.89	1.78	2011	218.67	297.89	197.78	297.89	151.11	164.89
1991	28.33	15.00	12.78	15.00	12.33	5.67	2012	288.78	242.56	152.33	242.56	176.56	101.00
1993	41.67	25.00	25.00	25.00	9.67	6.33	2013	531.56	284.78	217.78	284.78	165.22	105.22
1994	6.67	2.22	2.22	2.22	1.33	0.44	2014	266.89	192.78	80.56	192.78	132.44	54.11
1995	67.33	22.44	12.67	22.44	15.33	2.44	2015	759.22	504.89	495.22	504.89	335.11	270.00
1996	250.00	134.44	170.00	134.44	82.67	81.33	2016	575.00	468.56	404.00	468.56	282.89	251.67
1997	107.33	54.00	38.89	54.00	48.67	15.78	2017	649.22	728.11	371.56	728.11	376.56	263.22
1998	6.67	2.22	2.22	2.22	1.33	0.44	2018	765.22	519.33	392.89	519.33	288.11	177.56
1999	10.00	20.00	10.00	20.00	4.44	3.56	2019	438.11	457.78	345.00	457.78	296.78	260.67
2000	204.44	83.33	32.22	83.33	43.33	15.56	2020	283.44	255.89	181.11	255.89	144.78	109.56
2001	102.00	57.67	28.67	57.67	49.11	14.89	2021	621.89	510.89	383.11	510.89	347.00	249.78
2002	40.22	55.78	49.33	55.78	22.78	16.67	2022	377.89	416.33	345.11	416.33	218.78	204.67

Table 6

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分值 Score	政策力度评分标准 Score criteria of policy efforts
5	全国人民代表大会及其常务委员会颁布的法律 The laws promulgated by the National People’s Congress and its Standing Committee
4	国务院、最高人民法院、最高人民检察院颁布的条例、指令、意见、方案、规定、决定、办法、解释等 The regulations, directives, opinions, plans, provisions, decisions, measures, and interpretations issued by the State Council, the Supreme People’s Court, and the Supreme People’s Procuratorate
3	国务院颁布的暂行条例、暂行规定、通知、规划以及国家部委颁布的条例、决定、规定 The provisional regulations, interim provisions, notices, and plans issued by the State Council, as well as the regulations, decisions, and provisions issued by state ministries and commissions
2	国家部委颁布的意见、办法、方案、指南、决定、细则、条件、标准 The opinions, measures, plans, guidelines, decisions, detailed rules, conditions, and standards issued by state ministries and commissions
1	国务院各部委颁布的通知、公告、规划 The notices, announcements, and plans issued by state ministries and commissions

Evolution, Practical Logic, and Effectiveness Measurement of China’s Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Control Policies

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