Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2016, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (14): 2751-2762.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2016.14.009

• SOIL & FERTILIZER·WATER-SAVING IRRIGATION·AGROECOLOGY & ENVIRONMENT • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Sensitivity and Contribution Rate Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Spring Wheat Water Footprint in Hetao Irrigation District

SUN Shi-kun1,2, LIU Wen-yan1, LIU jing3, WANG Yu-bao1,2, CHEN Di-yi1, WU Pu-te1,2   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas of Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, shaanxi
    2 Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid regions of China, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, shaanxi
    3College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098
  • Received:2015-12-14 Online:2016-07-16 Published:2016-07-16

Abstract: 【Objective】The efficient utilization of agricultural water resources is a key measure to guarantee national food and water security. Crop water use efficiency evaluation is one of the main research fields of agricultural water management. Water footprint provides a new index for agricultural water use evaluation, and the quantitative evaluation on the influencing factors of crop water footprint will be helpful to the implementation of water footprint control and improvement of the agricultural water use efficiency. 【Method】Based on the concept of water footprint, the water footprint of spring wheat in Hetao irrigation district was quantified by using an improved calculation method and the temporal variation was analyzed. Sensitivity and contribution rate analysis were used to quantify the relationship between crop water footprint and its influencing factors. 【Result】The results show that water footprint of wheat declined significantly during the study period. It decreased from 4.71 m3·kg-1 in 1981 to 1.52 m3·kg-1 in 2010. The variation of water footprint of wheat displayed an obvious stage characteristic. It can be divided into three stages: fluctuate declining stage (1981-1987), rapid declining stage (1988-1995) and slow declining stage (1996-2010). And this variation characteristic was consistent with the variation of agricultural production and irrigation level in Hetao irrigation district. The blue water footprint accounted for the larger proportion (more than 90%), while for the share of green water footprint it was relatively small. Therefore, the production of wheat in the Hetao irrigation district mainly depended on blue water (irrigation water). Sensitivity analysis shows that the difference of sensitivity between the influencing factors was significant. The variations of water footprint of spring wheat was ±30%, ±24%, ±2%, ±63% and ±4% when sunshine hours, relative humidity, precipitation, irrigation water use coefficient and fertilizer rate per unit area varied at ±20%. Irrigation water use coefficient is the most sensitivity factor of wheat water footprint, following by sunshine hours, relative humidity, fertilizer usage and precipitation. Contribution analysis results show that the decline of relative humidity and the increase of precipitation led to the increase of wheat water footprint. On the contrary, the decrease of sunshine hours combined with the increase of fertilizer usage and irrigation water use efficiency led to the decrease of wheat water footprint. The contribution rates of fertilizer and irrigation water use coefficient were -36.89% and -39.42%, respectively, while the contribution rate of the total climatic factors was 2.80%. The increase of utilization coefficient of irrigation water had the largest contribution rate to the decrease of wheat water footprint during the study period, followed by fertilizer usage. The relative humidity, sunshine hours and precipitation had similar contribution rate to the variation of wheat water footprint. 【Conclusion】 The main kinds of influencing factors of crop water footprint are climate, agricultural production inputs and water use efficiency. As for Hetao irrigation district, the improvement of agricultural production and water use efficiency are the major driving forces that cause the variation of wheat water footprint in Hetao irrigation district, while the climate factors have little effect on wheat water footprint. The results of this study could provide reference for the water footprint control.

Key words: water footprint, sensitivity analysis, contribution rate analysis, Hetao irrigation district, spring wheat

[1]    IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014.
[2]    中华人民共和国水利部. 2010中国水资源公报. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2011.
Ministry of Water Resources of China. China Water Resources Bulletin 2010. Beijing: China Water & Power Press, 2011. (in Chinese)
[3]    齐学斌, 黄仲冬, 乔冬梅, 张现超, 李平, Andersen M N. 灌区水资源合理配置研究进展. 水科学进展, 2015, 26(2): 1-9.
Qi X B, Huang Z D, Qiao D M, Zhang X C, Li P, Andersen M N. Research advances on the reasonable water resources allocation in irrigation district. Advances in Water Science, 2015, 26(2): 1-9. (in Chinese)
[4]    Hoekstra A Y, Chapagain A K, Aldaya M M, Mekonnen M M. The Water Footprint Assessment Manual: Setting the Global Standard. London: Earthscan, 2011.
[5]    Mekonnen M M, Hoekstra A Y. The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011, 15(5): 1577-1600.
[6]    龙爱华, 张志强, 徐中民, 苏志勇. 甘肃省水资源足迹与消费模式分析. 水科学进展, 2005, 16(3): 418-425.
Long A H, Zhang Z Q, Xu Z M, Su Z Y. Analysis of    Chinese cultivated land’s spatial-temporal changes and causes in recent 30 years. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(3): 418-425. (in Chinese)
[7]    马静, 汪党献, 来海亮, 王茵. 中国区域水足迹的估算. 资源科学, 2005, 27(5): 96-100.
Ma J, Wang D X, Lai H L, Wang Y. Water footprint-an application in water resources research. Resources Science, 2005, 27(5): 96-100. (in Chinese)
[8]    Hoekstra A Y, Mekonnen M M. The water footprint of humanity. PNAS, 2012, 109(9): 3232-3237.
[9]    Cazcarro I, Hoekstra A Y, Sánchez Chóliz J. The water footprint of tourism in Spain. Tourism Management, 2014, 40(6): 90-101.
[10]   Zhang G P, Hoekstra A Y, Mathews R E. Water footprint assessment (WFA) for better water governance and sustainable development. Water Resources and Industry, 2013(1/2): 1-6.
[11]   Ercin A E, Hoekstra A Y. Water footprint scenarios for 2050: A global analysis. Environment International, 2014, 64(1): 71-82.
[12]   孙世坤, 王玉宝, 吴普特, 赵西宁. 小麦生产水足迹区域差异及归因分析. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(13): 142-148.
Sun S K, Wang Y B, Wu P T, Zhao X N. Spatial variability and attribution analysis of water footprint of wheat in China. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2015, 31(13): 142-148. (in Chinese)
[13]   Zhuo L, Mekonnen M M, Hoekstra A Y. Sensitivity and uncertainty in crop water footprint accounting: a case study for the Yellow River basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014, 18(6): 2219-2234.
[14]   白岗栓, 张蕊, 耿桂俊, 任志宏, 张沛琪, 史吉刚. 河套灌区农业节水技术集成研究. 水土保持通报, 2010, 31(1): 149-154.
Bai G S, Zhang R, Geng G J, Ren Z H, Zhang P Q, Shi Z G. Integrating agricultural water-saving technologies in Hetao irrigation district. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2010, 31(1): 149-154. (in Chinese)
[15]   Sun S K, Wu P T, Wang Y B, Zhao X N, Liu J, Zhang X H. The impacts of interannual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China. Science of the Total Environment, 2013, 444(8): 498-507.
[16]   国家气象局信息中心. 中国气象科学数据共享服务网[DB/OL]. [2014-06-02]. http://cdc.cma.gov.cn/home.do, 2010.
National Meteorological Information Center. China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System[DB/OL]. [2014-06-02]. http://cdc.cma. gov.cn/home.do, 2010. (in Chinese)
[17]   内蒙古自治区统计局. 内蒙古统计年鉴1981-2010. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1982-2011.
Inner Mongolia Statistical Bureau. Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook 1981-2010. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1982-2011. (in Chinese)
[18]   巴彦淖尔市水务局. 巴彦淖尔市水资源公报[DB/OL]. [2014-03-02]. http://www.htgq.gov.cn/news/show.asp?id=4379.
Water Authority in Bayannur. Water Resources Bulletin in Bayannur [DB/OL]. [2014-03-02]. http://www.htgq.gov.cn/news/show.asp?id =4379. (in Chinese)
[19]   Doll P, Siebert S. Global modeling of irrigation water requirements. Water Resources Research, 2002, 38(4): 1037-1048.
[20]   沈成. 基于CROPWAT模型河套灌区套种模式非充分灌溉制度模拟与区域决策[D]. 内蒙古: 内蒙古农业大学, 2012.
Shen C. Insufficient irrigation system simulation and regional strategy under interplanting mode based on CROPWAT model in Hetao irrigation area[D]. Inner Mongolia: Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, 2012. (in Chinese)
[21]   Augustin L K. 基于GIS和CROPWAT的内蒙古河套灌区作物的最优灌溉制度研究[D].北京: 中国农业大学, 2015.
Augustin LK. Optimal irrigation scheduling for crops: Based on GIS and CROPWAT application in Hetao district of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China[D]. Beijing: China Agricultural University, 2015. (in Chinese)
[22]   黄清华, 张万昌. SWAT模型参数敏感性分析及应用. 干旱区地理, 2010, 33(1): 8-15.
Huang Q H, Zhang W C. Application and parameters sensitivity and analysis of SWAT model. Arid Land Geography, 2010, 33(1): 8-15. (in Chinese)
[23]   田雨, 雷晓辉, 蒋云钟, 李薇. 水文模型参数敏感性分析方法研究评述. 水文, 2010, 30(4): 9-12.
Tian Y, Lei X H, Jiang Y Z, Li W. Comment on parameter sensitivity analysis of hydrological model. Journal of China Hydrology, 2010, 30(4): 9-12. (in Chinese)
[24]   Hamby D M. A review of techniques for parameter sensitivity analysis of environmental models. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 1994, 32(2): 135-154.
[25]   Sun X Y, Newham L. Three complementary methods for sensitivity analysis of a water quality model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2012, 37(1): 19-29.
[26]   曹雯, 申双和, 段春锋. 西北地区生长季参考作物蒸散变化成因的定量分析. 地理学报, 2011, 66(3): 407-415.
Cao W, Shen S H, Duan C F. Quantification of the causes for reference crop evapotranspiration changes in growing season in Northwest China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(3): 407-415. (in Chinese)
[27]   赵璐, 梁川, 崔宁博, 刘利文. 川中丘陵区参考作物蒸发蒸腾量近60年变化成因研究. 水利学报, 2013, 44(2): 183-190.
Zhao L, Liang C, Cui N B, Liu L W. Attribution analyses of ET0 change in hilly area of central Sichuan in recent 60 years. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2013, 44(2): 183-190. (in Chinese)
[28]   刘忠, 黄峰, 李保国. 2003-2011年中国粮食增产的贡献因素分析. 农业工程学报, 2013, 29(23):1-8.
Liu Z, Huang F, Li B G. Investigating contribution factors to China’s grain output increase in period of 2003 to 2011. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2013, 29(23): 1-8 (in Chinese)
[29]   王丹. 气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响与对策研究[D]. 武汉: 华中农业大学, 2009.
Wang D. Impact of climate change on Chinese grain security and countermeasures[D]. Wuhan: Huazhong Agricultural University, 2009. (in Chinese)
[30]   Hamed K H. Trend detection in hydrologic data: the Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. Journal of Hydrology, 2008, 349(3/4): 350-363.
[31]   张淑杰, 张玉书, 隋东, 蔡福, 武晋雯, 纪瑞鹏, 陈鹏狮, 刘庆婺. 东北地区参考蒸散量的变化特征及其成因分析. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(10):1750-1761.
Zhang S J, Zhang Y S, Sui D, Cai F, Wu J W, Ji R P, Chen P S, Liu Q W. Changes in reference evapotranspiration and its causes in Northeast China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(10): 1750-1761. (in Chinese)
[32]   陈素英, 张喜英, 邵立威, 孙宏勇. 农业技术和气候变化对农作物产量和蒸散量的影响. 中国生态农业学报, 2011, 19(5): 1039-1047.
Chen S Y, Zhang X Y, Shao L W, Sun H Y. Effects of climate change and agricultural technology improvement on evapotranspiration and crop yield. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2011, 19(5): 1039-1047. (in Chinese)
[33]   Liu X J, Zhang Y, Han W X, Tang A H, Shen J L, Cui Z L, Vitousek P, Erisman J W, Gouldding K, Christie P, Fangmeier A, Zhang F S. Enhanced nitrogen deposition over China. Nature, 2013, 494(7306): 459-462.
[34]   Zhang F S, Chen X P, Vitousek P. An experiment for the world. Nature, 2013, 497(7447): 33-35.
[1] JIAO WenJuan, HE WanLong, GENG HongWei, BAI Bin, LI JianFeng, CHENG YuKun. Stripe Rust Resistance Evaluation and Molecular Characterization of Yr Genes for 155 Spring Wheat Varieties (Lines) [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(5): 937-950.
[2] QIU HaiLong, LI Pan, ZHANG DianKai, FAN ZhiLong, HU FaLong, CHEN GuiPing, FAN Hong, HE Wei, YIN Wen, ZHAO LianHao. Compensatory Effects of Multiple Cropping Green Manure on Growth and Yield Loss of Nitrogen-Reduced Spring Wheat in Oasis Irrigation Areas of Northwest China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(3): 443-459.
[3] MU ShuJia, DONG LiXia, LI Guang, YAN ZhenGang, LU YuLan. Optimization of N2O Emission Parameters in Dryland Spring Wheat Farmland Soil Based on Whale Optimization Algorithm [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(3): 537-547.
[4] QIAN ZhiJin, WANG XiNa, TIAN HaiMei, WANG YueMei, HAO WenYue, ZHOU Hui, TAN JunLi. Effects of Continuous Reduction Fertilization on the Stability of Spring Wheat Grain Quality in the Yellow River Irrigation Area of Ningxia [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(22): 4703-4717.
[5] YU Ru, LI YuYi, CAO JuFeng, MA Jun, CHANG FangDi, SONG JiaShen, ZHANG HongYuan, LI XiaoBin, LI HaoRuo, ZHANG Hua, WANG Jing. Effects of Fertilization Management on Soil Carbon Fractions and Crop Yield of Post-Wheat Green Manure Rotation in Saline-Alkali Soils [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(20): 4189-4202.
[6] ZHANG HuanHuan, ZHANG DiaoLiang, WANG XiaoLi, CHEN Han, SHAO Juan, YIN Wen, HU FaLong, CHAI Qiang, FAN ZhiLong. Effects of Green Manure and Wheat Straw Combined Returning Application on Photosynthetic Characteristics and Yield of Spring Wheat Under Reduced Nitrogen Levels [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(17): 3461-3472.
[7] CAO JingWen, NIE ZhiGang, LI Guang, YANG Jie. Multi-Objective Optimization of Stable Yield and Emission Reduction of Dryland Spring Wheat Based on DNDC and NSGA-Ⅲ. Coupling Model [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(13): 2538-2551.
[8] LI Rong, LI ZhengPeng, YAN QingBiao, GUO RanRan, HAN Mei, XU Ke. Effects of Multiple Cropping Green Manure Combined with Different Nitrogen Fertilizer Levels on Yield and Quality of Spring Wheat [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(12): 2333-2345.
[9] ZHOU Quan, LU QiuMei, ZHAO ZhangChen, WU ChenRan, FU XiaoGe, ZHAO YuJiao, HAN Yong, LIN HuaiLong, CHEN WeiLin, MOU LiMing, LI XingMao, WANG ChangHai, HU YinGang, CHEN Liang. Identification of Drought Resistance of 244 Spring Wheat Varieties at Seedling Stage [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(9): 1646-1657.
[10] LI YongFei, LI ZhanKui, ZHANG ZhanSheng, CHEN YongWei, KANG JianHong, WU HongLiang. Effects of Postponing Nitrogen Fertilizer Application on Flag Leaf Physiological Characteristics and Yield of Spring Wheat Under High Temperature Stress [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(8): 1455-1468.
[11] WANG ChuFan, NIU Jun. Water and Carbon Footprint and Layout Optimization of Major Grain Crops in the Northwest China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(6): 1137-1152.
[12] WANG YueMei, TIAN HaiMei, WANG XiNa, HAO WenYue, LÜ ZheMing, YU JinMing, TAN JunLi, WANG ZhaoHui. Effect of Continuous Reduction of Fertilizer Application on Yield Stability of Spring Wheat in Yellow River Irrigation Area of Ningxia [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(3): 539-554.
[13] LI Hong, WANG XiNa, WEI GuangYuan, MA YongXin, TIAN HaiMei, WANG YueMei, QIAN ZhiJin, TAN JunLi. Effects of Water Saving and Nitrogen Reduction on Lodging Resistance and Grain Yield of Spring Wheat in the Yellow River Irrigation Area of Ningxia [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(17): 3424-3439.
[14] SUN WeiHao, LIU Ting, SANG YiNan, YANG ZhengWei, ZHANG GaiSheng, SONG YuLong, ZHANG ShuangXi. Analysis of Heterosis and Combining Ability of Lodging Resistance Traits of Spring Wheat Varieties (Lines) in the Ningxia Yellow River Irrigation Area [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(13): 2497-2508.
[15] ZHANG DianKai, LI Pan, FAN Hong, HE Wei, FAN ZhiLong, HU FaLong, SUN YaLi, TAN XiangNian, YIN Wen, CHEN GuiPing. Soil Water Use Characteristics of Spring Wheat with Multiple- Cropping Green Manure and Nitrogen Reduction in Northwest Irrigated Areas [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(11): 2189-2201.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!