中国蔬菜市场价格短期波动与风险评估

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.07.025

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】 Taking the monthly wholesale prices of 11 kinds of vegetables in China as the object of study, the intensity and pattern of short term fluctuation of varieties of vegetables were compared and analyzed, the yield distribution of vegetables market was estimated, and the market risk of short term fluctuation was evaluated. 【Method】 The study mainly adopted three methods of variation coefficient, hierarchical cluster and kernel density estimation to analyze short term fluctuation and yield distribution of vegetables market. 【Result】 The results are as follows: the descending order of fluctuating intensity of vegetables is eggplant, green pepper, hot pepper, garlic, cucumber, bean, spinach, rape, tomatoes, celery and cabbage. There are three patterns of short term fluctuation which are distinct wave peak and trough pattern, narrow and compact wave pattern and fluctuating cluster pattern. The yield distribution of vegetables market is asymmetric and the probability of rising of vegetables market price is higher than that of falling. The risk of spinach market price is the greatest and its probability of the rising and falling range over 30% reaches 40.48%. Following behind spinach is eggplant. The risk of garlic market price is the smallest and its probability of the rising and falling range over 30% is only 1.82%. 【Conclusion】 The overall risk of vegetables market price is high under the condition of market economy. A majority of varieties of vegetables market price are often seen ups and downs. However, the occurrence of great fluctuation of garlic market price is a small probability event. If it happened there was a reason to judge for abnormal fluctuations.

Key words: vegetables , market price , short-term fluctuation , yield distribution , kernel density estimation , risk evaluation

LI Gan-qiong1, XU Shi-wei1, SUN Yi-guo2, LI Zhe-min1. Short-Term Fluctuations and Risk Evaluation of Vegetables Market Price in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2011, 44(7): 1502-1511.

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Short-Term Fluctuations and Risk Evaluation of Vegetables Market Price in China

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