中国南方粮食产能提升的战略路径

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.09.014

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on a typical on-site investigation of the current situation of grain production in the south, combined with the use of historical statistical data and published literature, the research results were obtained through comprehensive comparative analysis of relevant data. The research results indicated that: (1) The strategic position of the South in national grain production was important. The southern region had superior natural and socio-economic conditions, a long history of grain production, and has made significant contributions to national food security. (2) Currently, grain production in the southern regions faces ten prominent issues: declining arable land, shrinking grain cultivation areas, stagnant total output, diminishing economic efficiency, small-scale operations, fragile agricultural foundations, frequent natural disasters, severe environmental pollution, labor shortages in rural areas, and weak product competitiveness, all of which directly constrained the improvement of grain production capacity in the Southern China. (3) Based on the advantages and existing issues of grain production in the Southern China, this study proposed targeted strategic pathways and specific measures to enhance grain production capacity. The key measures included developing idle farmland, restoring double-cropping rice, expanding the cultivation of ratoon rice, promoting drought-resistant grains, advancing intercropping and mixed cropping, protecting arable land resources, cultivating superior varieties, strengthening disaster prevention and mitigation, accelerating green transformation, practicing a holistic food perspective, and establishing a safeguard system.

Key words: grain production capacity, food security, high quality development of agriculture, sustainable development of agriculture, agricultural new quality productivity, strategic path, Southern China

HUANG GuoQin. The Strategic Path of Enhancing Grain Production Capacity in Southern China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(9): 2029-2041.

Figures/Tables 3

Table 1

Population (2024), cultivated land area (2023), and grain output in the past 5 years (2020-2024) and their proportion in Southern China"

区域 Region	省、自治区、直辖市 Provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities	人口数量 Population (×10⁴)	耕地面积 Cultivated land area (×10⁴ hm²)	粮食播种面积 Grain sowing area (×10⁴ hm²)					粮食总产量 Total grain output (×10⁴ t)
区域 Region		人口数量 Population (×10⁴)	耕地面积 Cultivated land area (×10⁴ hm²)	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
长江中下游区 Middle and Lower Yangtze River Region	上海Shanghai	25520	16.09	11.43	11.74	12.28	12.72	13.03	91.4	94.0	95.6	101.9	98.3
	江苏Jiangsu	87756	413.96	540.56	542.75	544.44	545.90	547.55	3729.1	3746.1	3769.1	3797.7	3810.1
	浙江Zhejiang	68651	132.08	99.34	100.67	102.04	102.50	104.70	605.7	620.9	621.0	639.0	650.2
	安徽Anhui	63020	556.35	728.95	730.96	731.42	733.45	734.49	4019.2	4087.6	4100.1	4150.8	4184.3
	江西Jiangxi	46339	271.83	377.24	377.28	377.64	377.43	377.46	2163.9	2192.3	2151.9	2198.3	2196.0
	湖北Hubei	60048	475.20	464.53	468.60	468.90	470.70	472.26	2727.4	2764.3	2741.1	2777.0	2785.3
	湖南Hunan	67303	366.66	475.48	475.84	476.55	476.35	477.34	3015.1	3074.4	3018.0	3068.0	3078.1
	小计Total	318637	2232.17	2697.53	2707.84	2713.27	2719.05	2726.83	16351.8	16579.6	16496.8	16732.7	16802.3
华南区 South China Region	福建Fujian	43162	92.63	83.44	83.51	83.76	84.11	84.44	502.3	506.4	508.7	511.0	514.4
	广东Guangdong	131542	191.47	220.47	221.30	223.03	222.95	223.68	1267.6	1279.9	1291.5	1285.2	1313.4
	广西Guangxi	51594	328.67	280.61	282.29	282.93	283.47	284.18	1370.0	1386.5	1393.1	1395.4	1403.8
	海南Hainan	10785	49.48	27.07	27.14	27.30	27.36	27.27	145.5	146.0	146.6	147.0	142.4
	小计Total	237083	662.25	611.59	614.24	617.02	617.89	619.57	3285.4	3318.80	3339.9	3338.5	3374.0
西南区 Southwest China Region	重庆Chongqing	32828	186.96	200.31	201.32	204.67	202.59	203.19	1081.4	1092.8	1072.8	1095.9	1100.7
	四川Sichuan	86091	525.26	631.26	635.77	646.35	640.40	640.59	3527.4	3582.1	3510.5	3593.8	3633.8
	贵州Guizhou	39732	341.52	275.41	278.77	278.87	277.38	277.14	1057.6	1094.9	1114.6	1119.7	1146.1
	云南Yunnan	47918	548.45	416.74	419.14	421.10	424.32	424.68	1895.9	1930.3	1958.0	1974.0	1993.5
	小计Total	206569	1602.19	1523.72	1535.00	1550.99	1544.69	1545.60	7562.3	7700.1	7655.9	7783.4	7874.1
南方Southern China		762289	4496.61	4832.84	4857.08	4881.28	4881.63	4892.00	27199.5	27598.5	27492.6	27854.6	28050.4
全国All of China		1447437	12860.88	11676.80	11763.10	11833.20	11896.90	11931.90	66949.2	68284.7	68652.8	69541.0	70649.9
南方占全国比重 The proportion of the southern region in all of China (%)		52.66	34.96	41.38	41.29	41.25	41.03	41.00	40.63	40.42	40.04	40.05	39.70

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Agricultural natural disasters and their losses in Southern China in 2024"

区域 Region		农作物受灾面积Area of crops affected by disasters (×10⁴ hm²)						受灾人口（万人次） Number of people affected (×10⁴)	死亡失踪人口（人） Deaths and missing persons	倒塌房屋间数（万间）Collapsed house (×10⁴ rooms)	直接经济损失 Direct economic loss (×10⁸ yuan)
区域 Region		旱灾 Drought	洪涝和地质灾害 Flood and geological disaster	台风灾害Typhoons disaster	风雹灾害 Wind and hail disaster	低温冷冻和雪灾 Low temperature, freezing and snow disaster	合计 Total	受灾人口（万人次） Number of people affected (×10⁴)	死亡失踪人口（人） Deaths and missing persons	倒塌房屋间数（万间）Collapsed house (×10⁴ rooms)	直接经济损失 Direct economic loss (×10⁸ yuan)
长江中下游区 Middle and Lower Yangtze River Region	上海 Shanghai	0.00	0.00	3.49	0.00	0.11	3.60	64.9	2	0.00	7.0
	江苏 Jiangsu	0.00	0.29	4.45	0.06	0.47	5.27	47.5	10	0.01	25.2
	浙江 Zhejiang	0.00	2.20	5.15	0.00	0.22	7.57	117.4	0	0.06	44.9
	安徽 Anhui	0.00	16.89	0.00	0.03	0.57	17.49	197.5	16	0.06	94.3
	江西 Jiangxi	0.00	35.47	0.33	3.52	12.72	52.04	508.4	16	0.05	86.7
	湖北 Hubei	12.28	30.76	0.00	0.51	33.80	77.35	710.7	5	0.01	148.2
	湖南 Hunan	2.31	93.61	0.00	1.64	39.13	136.69	1026.4	126	1.88	632.1
	小计Total	14.59	179.22	13.42	5.76	87.02	300.00	2672.8	175	2.07	1038.4
华南区 South China Region	福建 Fujian	0.00	6.62	1.03	0.40	2.59	10.66	214.2	33	0.38	174.0
	广东Guangdong	0.00	9.58	7.57	0.27	0.02	17.44	272.3	139	1.54	311.4
	广西Guangxi	0.00	12.29	11.67	2.62	0.61	27.21	440.0	20	0.13	132.0
	海南Hainan	0.00	0.00	35.62	0.00	0.00	35.62	609.7	25	0.28	651.7
	小计Total	0.00	28.49	55.89	3.29	3.22	90.93	1536.2	217	2.33	1269.1
西南区 Southwest China Region	重庆Chongqing	9.82	6.55	0.00	0.67	0.06	17.16	227.5	14	0.15	53.1
	四川 Sichuan	9.15	10.34	0.00	1.59	0.14	21.22	720.6	93	0.33	134.3
	贵州 Guizhou	7.76	7.75	0.00	11.72	2.48	29.73	553.2	9	0.05	82.9
	云南 Yunnan	10.97	13.50	0.30	11.78	0.66	37.32	638.1	82	0.07	86.5
	小计Total	37.70	37.94	0.30	25.76	3.34	105.00	2139.4	198	0.60	356.6
南方 Southern China		52.29	245.65	69.61	34.81	93.58	495.93	6348.4	590	5.00	2664.1
全国All of China		120.62	603.87	69.61	114.74	95.89	1008.86	9413.0	856	6.44	4011.1
南方占全国比重 The proportion of the southern region in all of China (%)		43.44	40.68	100.00	30.34	97.67	49.16	67.44	68.93	77.64	66.42

Table 3

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区域 Region	省、自治区、直辖市 Province, autonomous region, and municipality	2012年耕地面积 Cultivated land area in 2012 (×10⁴ hm²)	2023年耕地面积 Cultivated land area in 2023 (×10⁴ hm²)	2023年比2012年耕地减少 The reduction of cultivated land in 2023 compared to 2012
区域 Region				(×10⁴ hm²)	(%)
长江中下游区 Middle and Lower Yangtze River Region	上海Shanghai	18.82	16.09	2.73	14.51
	江苏Jiangsu	458.47	413.96	44.51	9.71
	浙江Zhejiang	197.94	132.08	65.86	33.27
	安徽Anhui	588.13	556.35	31.78	5.40
	江西Jiangxi	308.35	271.83	36.52	11.84
	湖北Hubei	529.00	475.20	53.80	10.17
	湖南Hunan	414.62	366.66	47.96	11.57
	小计Total	2515.33	2232.17	283.16	11.26
华南区 South China Region	福建Fujian	133.84	92.63	41.21	30.79
	广东Guangdong	261.44	191.47	69.97	26.76
	广西Guangxi	441.42	328.67	112.75	25.54
	海南Hainan	72.67	49.48	23.19	31.91
	小计Total	909.37	662.25	247.12	27.17
西南区 Southwest China Region	重庆Chongqing	245.13	186.96	58.17	23.73
	四川Sichuan	673.21	525.26	147.95	21.98
	贵州Guizhou	455.22	341.52	113.70	24.98
	云南Yunnan	622.49	548.45	74.04	11.89
	小计Total	1996.05	1602.19	393.86	19.73
南方Southern China		5420.75	4496.61	924.14	17.05
全国All of China		13515.84	12860.88	654.96	4.85
南方占全国比重 The proportion of the southern region in all of China (%)		40.11	34.96

The Strategic Path of Enhancing Grain Production Capacity in Southern China

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