Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2019, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (23): 4296-4308.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2019.23.010

• SOIL & FERTILIZER·WATER-SAVING IRRIGATION·AGROECOLOGY & ENVIRONMENT • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Its Trend Change in Shaanxi Province Based on SPEI and MI

DING YiBo1,XU JiaTun1,2,3,LI Liang1,2,3,CAI HuanJie1,2,3(),SUN YaNan1,2,3   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi;
    2 Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi;
    3 College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi;
  • Received:2019-03-22 Accepted:2019-07-19 Online:2019-12-01 Published:2019-12-01
  • Contact: HuanJie CAI E-mail:caihj@nwsuaf.edu.cn

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Abstract:

【Objective】 At present, most drought studies were based on historical drought events to analyze the causes and trends. This paper sought to simulate the drought index method when outputting future meteorological data based on CMIP5 model, and explored the characteristics of past and future drought changes in Shaanxi Province, which could provide a basis for the future management of agricultural water resources in Shaanxi Province. 【Method】Based on the historical data of 18 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province and CMIP5 model, the future meteorological data were output. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) was simulated by comparing three kinds of models. The standard precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) and relative moisture index (MI) were calculated based on the reference crop ET0 and precipitation data to reflect the drought degree. The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in the past (1958-2017) and in the future (2018-2100) were compared.【Result】Multiple linear regression (MLR) simulation could accurately predict the reference crop ET0 (RMSE=0.457 mm·d -1). In the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the future drought index showed an upward trend. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, there was a sudden change in the drought index in the 1940s. The degree of drought would decrease in the future of Shaanxi Province, and the distribution of drought would be more uneven during the year. In the future, the degree of drought would decrease during summer maize growth season, and the degree of drought would increase during winter wheat growth season.【Conclusion】The characteristics and extent of drought change were different under different RCP scenarios. The changes in drought characteristics reflected by SPEI and MI were basically the same, but there were differences in the changes in some time periods. In order to effectively cope with the negative impact of climate change on dry crop yields, it was necessary to enhance soil water storage and conservation capacity, especially to strengthen drought resistance during the winter wheat growing season.

Key words: Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), Relative Moisture Index (MI), evapotranspiration(ET0), multiple regression, neural network, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), Mann-Kendall trend test, Shaanxi Province

Fig. 1

Distribution of meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province"

Table 1

Basic information of CMIP5 global climate model"

序号
Serial number		 模式名称
Mode name		 模式所在国家
Mode of country
1 bcc-csm1-1 中国China
2 CanESM2 加拿大Canada
3 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 澳大利亚Australia
4 HadGEM2-ES 英国United Kingdom
5 MPI-ESM-LR 德国Germany
6 MRI-CGCM3 日本Japan

Fig. 2

GRNN model structure diagram"

Table 2

Classification of SPEI and MI drought grades"

等级
Category		 类型
Type		 SPEI MI
1 无旱 No drought -0.5<SPEI -0.40<MI
2 轻旱 Mild drought -1.0<SPEI≤-0.5 -0.65<MI≤-0.40
3 中旱 Moderate drought -1.5<SPEI≤-1.0 -0.80<MI≤-0.65
4 重旱 Severe drought -2.0<SPEI≤-1.5 -0.95<MI≤-0.80
5 特旱 Extreme drought SPEI≤-2.0 MI≤-0.95

Fig. 3

Comparing scatter plots of simulation results of ET0 by MLR, GRNN and Hargreaves method with input average temperature"

Fig. 4

M-K trend test of SPEI (a) and MI (b) time series in Shaanxi Province from 1958 to 2018 UF and UB are statistical sequences used to determine trends in time series and to check for mutation points. The confidence interval threshold is 0.05"

Fig. 5

Comparison of simulated SPEI error under different modes in different time periods"

Table 3

Comparison of drought index error under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for HadGEM2-ES model 2006-2018"

干旱指数
Drought index		 RCP情景
RCP scenario		 RMSE
陕北
Northern Shaanxi		 关中
Central Shaanxi plain		 陕南
Southern Shaanxi		 陕西
Shaanxi
MI RCP2.6 0.306 0.563 0.378 0.416
RCP8.5 0.149 0.309 0.317 0.258
SPEI RCP2.6 0.505 0.720 0.576 0.596
RCP8.5 0.427 0.597 0.563 0.522

Fig. 6

SPEI and MI trend test in Shaanxi Province under RCP 2.6 scenarios"

Fig. 7

SPEI and MI trend test in Shaanxi Province under RCP 8.5 scenarios"

Fig. 8

SPEI drought frequency in Shaanxi Province from 1958 to 2100 under different RCP scenarios"

Fig. 9

MI drought frequency in Shaanxi Province from 1958 to 2100 under different RCP scenarios"

Fig. 10

SPEI and MI drought frequency in winter wheat and summer maize growing season in Shaanxi Province"

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