近20年重庆市农牧生产体系氮素流动特征及驱动力分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2018.03.007

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】 The objectives of this study are to evaluate the characteristics of nitrogen (N) flow in the crop-livestock system and analyze the main pathways of N loss and main drivers of the change in N flow in the crop-livestock system, put forward the effective N management measures, and to provide a powerful technical support for efficient N resource adoption in crop-livestock system in Chongqing.【Method】The crop-livestock system of Chongqing was defined as research case. A quantitative analysis of the N flow and loss and of their relationships with human activities from 1996 to 2015 was reported using the nutrient flow in food chain, environment and resources use model (NUFER). The data were mainly derived from literature, statistics and research reports. Pathways to a sustainable N use were explored through scenario analysis of different N managements in 2020.【Result】The total N input of crop-livestock system in Chongqing increased by 19.2% from 1996 to 2015. The amount of N input reached 1 006 Gg in 2015 and fertilizer consumption contributed 57% to it. The total N output of crop-livestock system in Chongqing increased by 16.5% from 1996 to 2015 and it has reached 844 Gg in 2015. Environmental loss was the largest part of N output in the crop-livestock system, which accounted for 61.7% of total output. Crop and animal production systems contributed 45.1% and 54.9% to the total N loss in 2015, respectively. The total amount of N cycle in the crop-livestock system increased by 42.7% and reached 448 Gg in 2015. The N amounts in manure and straw returning reached 32.7 and 95.0 Gg, respectively, which increased by 55% and 44% from 1996 to 2015. The cultivation proportion of vegetable and fruit to total sown areas increased from 10% to 28% from 1996 to 2015. Meanwhile, the percentage of cereals crops area dropped from 82% to 62%. In addiction，the export of main animal products increased by 83%, such as meat, milk and eggs. A significant liner relationship was observed between changes in N use and loss and changes in production structure, while the relationship between changes in N use and loss and changes in gross domestic production (GDP) was non-linear. It suggested that the dominant factor affecting N flow should be production structure, and GDP just played a role in stimulating consumption of crop and animal products. If the goal of agricultural production in the “13th Five-Year Plan for Agricultural Development in Chongqing Municipality” is fulfilled by 2020 with current N fertilizer inputs and N management practices, it will increase N loss by 18 Gg and reduce N use efficiency by 1.2% relative to the status of 2015. Scenario with increased the N cycling rate in the crop-livestock system and optimized nutrients management of crop production, indicated 15% and 4.2% reductions in N fertilizer input and N loss, respectively. It also would greatly increase N use efficiencies (NUE).【Conclusion】The characteristics of N flow in the crop-livestock system have been greatly changed over the past 20 years in Chongqing. Increased N input and total environmental loss were observed since 1996. The main driver for these changes was adjustment of production structure. Key measures for ensuring food production and minimizing environmental costs are (1) reducing direct emission of N from the livestock system to the environment, (2) enhancing the recycling of straw and manure, (3) optimizing N management and improving NUE in crop production system.

Key words: nitrogen (N), Chongqing, crop-livestock system, driving force, NUFER model

CHEN XuanJing, GONG YaHui, XIE Jun, ZHANG YueQiang, CHEN XinPing, SHI XiaoJun. Nitrogen Flow of Crop-Livestock Production System and Its Driving Forces in Chongqing over the Past 20 Years[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2018, 51(3): 468-480.

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