中国双季稻种植区的气候适宜性研究

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.02.003

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】 The objectives of this study are to clarify major climate factors affecting the distribution of double rice planting regions in China based on national and annual scales, and to give the distribution of double rice planting regions and their climate suitability divisions, in order to provide a scientific basis for optimizing double rice allocation of production, modifying cropping pattern and ensuring food security. 【Method】 In terms of potential climate factors selected from the related literatures based on national and annual scales, double rice geographic information from national agrometeorological observation stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), together with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the spatial analysis function of ArcGIS software, major climate factors affecting the distribution of double rice planting regions in China were clarified, and the relationship between the distribution of double rice planting regions and climate were discussed. 【Result】 The results show that annual precipitation (P), mean temperature of the warmest month (TW) and days of not less than 18℃ stably (N18) are dominant climate factors affecting the distribution of double rice planting regions in China, contributing 99.1% of all the potential climate factors. The distribution of double rice planting regions in China is simulated well in terms of the maximum entropy model and the selected dominant climate factors. The suitable land area for planting double rice in China is 1.74 million km2, and it is more than the practical cultivated area (60 105 km2). Furthermore, the climatic suitability divisions of double rice planting regions in China are given based on its appearance frequency. The climate characteristics of double rice in each climatic suitability region are analysed, respectively.【Conclusion】The relationship between the distribution of double rice planting regions and climate based on the maximum entropy model is able to reveal the distribution of double rice planting regions and its climatic suitability divisions in China. The results indicate that double rice could be largely developed in China due to its huge climate suitable planting regions. The results can provide reference for double rice planting pattern and countermeasures to cope with climate change in China.

Key words: double rice, potential distribution, climatic suitability, dominant climate factors, maximum entropy model (MaxEnt)

DUAN Ju-Qi, ZHOU Guang-Sheng. Climatic Suitability of Double Rice Planting Regions in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(2): 218-227.

0
/ / Recommend

Add to citation manager EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks

URL: https://www.chinaagrisci.com/EN/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.02.003

https://www.chinaagrisci.com/EN/Y2012/V45/I2/218

References

[1]程式华, 胡培松. 中国水稻科技发展战略. 中国水稻科学, 2008, 22(3): 223-226.

Cheng S H, Hu P S. Development strategy of rice science and technology in China. Chinese Journal of Rice Science,2008, 22 (3): 223-226. (in Chinese)

[2]郭建平. 气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源演变趋势. 北京: 气象出版社, 2010: 1-36.

Guo J P. Chinese Agroclimate Resource Changing Trend Under Global Change. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2010: 1-36. (in Chinese)

[3]成尚廉. 江汉平原双季稻种植比例试析. 湖北农业科学, 1984(9): 5-7.

Cheng S L. To analyze ratio of double rice planting in Jianghan plain. Journal of Hubei Agricultural Sciences, 1984(9): 5-7. (in Chinese)

[4]梁书民. 我国各地区复种发展潜力与复种行为研究. 农业经济月刊, 2007, 28(5): 85-90.

Liang S M. Probing potentials of multiple cropping in the selected provinces in China. Issues in Agriculture Economy,2007, 28(5): 85-90. (in Chinese)

[5]周广胜, 王玉辉. 全球变化与气候-植被分类研究和展望. 科学通报, 1999, 44(24): 2587-2593.

Zhou G S, Wang Y H. Study and preview of global change and vegetation-climatic classification. Chinese Science Bulletin, 1999, 44(24): 2587-2593. (in Chinese)

[6]王石立, 庄立伟, 王馥棠. 近20年气候变暖对东北农业生产水热条件影响的研究. 应用气象学报, 2003, 14(2): 152-164.

Wang S L, Zhuang L W, Wang F T. Impacts of climate warming on thermal and moisture conditions in Northeast China in recent 20 years. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2003, 14(2): 152-164. (in Chinese)

[7]云雅如, 方修琦, 王媛, 陶军德, 乔佃锋. 黑龙江省过去20年粮食作物种植格局变化及其气候背景. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(5): 697-705.

Yun Y R, Fang X Q, Wang Y, Tao J D, Qiao D F. Main grain crops structural change and its climate background in Heilongjiang province during the past two decades. Journal of Nature Resources, 2005, 20(5): 697-705. (in Chinese)

[8]Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Xu Y L, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2006, 138(1-4): 82-92.

[9]Welch J R, Vincent J R, Auffhammer M, Moya P F, Dobbermann A, Dawe D. Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2010, 107(33): 14562-14567.

[10]Zhang T Y, Zhu J, Wassmann R. Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: An empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales (1981-2005). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2010, 150(7-8): 1128-1137.

[11]吕一河, 傅伯杰. 生态学中的尺度及尺度转换方法. 生态学报, 2001, 21(12): 2096-3015.

Lu Y H, Fu B J. Ecological scale and scaling. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2001, 21(12): 2096-3015. (in Chinese)

[12]McGill B J. Matters of scale. Science, 2010, 328(5978): 575-576.

[13]丁颖. 中国水稻栽培学. 北京: 农业出版社, 1961: 101-180.

Ding Y. Rice Cultivation Science in China. Beijing: Agriculture Press, 1961: 101-180. (in Chinese)

[14]中国农林作物气候区划协作组. 中国农林作物气候区划. 北京: 气象出版社, 1987: 36-55.

Cooperative Agricultural and Forest Crop Regionalization Group in China. Agricultural and Forest Crop Climate Regionalization in China. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1987: 36-55. (in Chinese)

[15]中国水稻研究所. 中国水稻种植区划. 杭州: 浙江科学技术出版社, 1989: 1-155.

China National Rice Research Institute. Rice Cropping Regionalization in China. Hangzhou: Zhejiang Science and Technology Press, 1989: 1-155. (in Chinese)

[16]高永刚, 张凌云, 姚克敏. 我国水稻生育期的生态规律及其区划. 南京气象学院学报, 1998, 21(2): 181-188.

Gao Y G, Zhang L Y, Yao K M. Regularity of ecological impact on growing period of rice and its regionalization in China. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 1998, 21(2): 181-188. (in Chinese)

[17]郑美秀, 蒋宗孝, 伍毓柏, 林玉琪, 张冬松. 三明市水稻气候条件分析与气候区划. 气象科技, 2004, 32(增): 77-79.

Zheng M X, Jiang Z X, Wu Y B, Lin Y Q, Zhang D S. Climatic condition analysis and agro-climatological regionalization of rice planting in Sanming. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2004, 32(S): 77-79. (in Chinese)

[18]俞芬, 千怀遂, 段海来. 淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析. 地理科学, 2008, 28(4): 537-542.

Yu F, Qian H S, Duan H L. Climate suitability of rice and its changes in Huaihe watershed. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2008, 28(4): 537-542. (in Chinese)

[19]赖纯佳, 千怀遂, 段海来, 宋秋洪. 淮河流域双季稻气候适宜度及其变化趋势. 生态学杂志, 2009, 28(11): 2339-2346.

Lai C J, Qian H S, Duan H L, Song Q H. Climate suitability and its change trend of double-cropping rice in Huaihe river basin. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2009, 28(11): 2339-2346. (in Chinese)

[20]Peterson A T. Predicting the geography of species’ invasions via ecological niche modeling. The Quarterly Review of Biology, 2003, 78(4): 419-433.

[21]Kozak K H, Graham C H, Wiens J J. Integrating GIS-based environmental data into evolutionary biology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 2008, 23(3): 141-148.

[22]曹铭昌, 周广胜, 翁恩生. 广义模型及分类回归树在物种分布模拟中的应用与比较. 生态学报, 2005, 25(8): 2031-2040.

Cao M C, Zhou G S, Weng E S. Application and comparison of generalized models and classification and regression tree in simulating tree species distribution. Acta Ecologic Sinica, 2005, 25(8): 2031-2040. (in Chinese)

[23]马松梅, 张明理, 张宏祥, 孟宏虎, 陈曦. 利用最大熵模型和规则集遗传算法模型预测孑遗植物裸果木的潜在地理分布及格局. 植物生态学报, 2010, 34 (11): 1327-1335.

Ma S M, Zhang M L, Zhang H X, Meng H H, Chen X. Predicting potential geographical distributions and patterns of the relic plant Gymnocarpos przewalskii using maximum entropy and genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2010, 34 (11): 1327-1335. (in Chinese)

[24]Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 2006,190(3-4): 231-259.

[25]王运生, 谢丙炎, 万方浩, 肖启明, 戴良英. 相似穿孔线虫在中国的适生区预测. 中国农业科学, 2007, 40(11): 2502-2506.

Wang Y S, Xie B Y, Wan F H, Xiao Q M, Dai L Y. Potential geographic distribution of Radopholus similis in China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2007, 40(11): 2502-2506. (in Chinese)

[26]Thornton P E, Running S W, White M A. Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. Journal of Hydrology, 1997, 190(3/4): 214-251.

[27]刘宇, 陈泮勤, 张稳, 胡非. 一种地面气温的空间插值方法及其误差分析. 大气科学, 2006, 30(1): 146-152.

Liu Y, Chen P Q, Zhang W, Hu F. A spatial interpolation for surface air temperature and its error analysis. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Science, 2006, 30(1): 146-152. (in Chinese)

[28]Holdridge L R. Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data. Science, 1947, 105(2727): 367-368.

[29]Woodward F I. Climate and Plant Distribution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987: 62-107.

[30]翁恩生, 周广胜. 用于全球变化研究的中国植物功能型划分. 植物生态学报, 2005, 29(1): 81-97.

Weng E S, Zhou G S. Defining plant functional types in China for global change studies. Plant Phytoecologica Sinica, 2005, 29(1): 81-97. (in Chinese)

[31]全国种植制度气候研究南方协作组. 我国南方稻区种植制度的气候生态区划. 中国农业科学, 1982, 15(4): 35-42.

Associate Research Group for Agroclimatological Study of Cropping System in South China. Regionalization of cropping systems in rice growing regions in South China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 1982, 15(4): 35-42. (in Chinese)

[32]朱勇, 段长春, 王鹏云. 云南杂交水稻种植的气候优势及区划. 中国农业气象, 1999, 20(2): 21-24, 34.

Zhu Y, Duan C C, Wang P Y. The agroclimatic advantages to growing hybrid rice and its zoning in Yunnan province. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 1999, 20(2): 21-24, 34. (in Chinese)

[33]刘洪顺, 梁红, 王继新. 滇中高原气候资源与水稻、小麦生长的协调性. 中国农业气象, 1997, 18(1): 21-26.

Liu H S, Liang H, Wang J X. Compatibility of climate resource and rice, wheat growth in Dianzhong Plateau. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 1997, 18(1): 21-26. (in Chinese)

[34]张新时, 杨奠安, 倪文革. 植被的PE (可能蒸散) 指标与植被气候分类 (三) —几种主要方法与PEP程序介绍. 植物生态学与地植物学学报, 1993, 17(2): 97-109.

Zhang X S, Yang D A, Ni W G. The potential evapotranspiration (PE) index for vegetation and vegetation-climatic classification (Ⅲ) — an introduction of main methods and PEP program. Acta Phytoecologica et Geobotanica Sinica, 1993, 17(2): 97-109. (in Chinese)

[35]曲曼丽. 农业气候分析方法30例. 北京: 北京农业大学出版社, 1991: 1-9.

Qu M L. Agro-climatic Internship Guide. Beijing: Beijing Agricultural University Press, 1991: 1-9. (in Chinese)

[36]IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I，II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, IPCC, 2007: 1-104.

[37]中国农业科学院. 中国稻作学. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 1986, 85-122.

The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Chinese Rice Cultivation Science. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 1986: 85-122. (in Chinese)

[38]Swets K A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 1988, 240(4857): 1285-1293.

[39]Phillips S J, Dudík M. Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 2008, 31(2): 161-175.

[40]Peterson A T, Papes M, Eaton M. Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: a comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography, 2007, 30(4): 550-560.

[41]Frolking S, Qiu J J, Boles S, Xiao X M, Liu J Y, Zhuang Y H, Li C S, Qin X G. Combining remote sensing and ground census data to develop new maps of the distribution of rice agriculture in China. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2002, 16(4): 1-10.

[42]中国农业年鉴编辑委员会. 中国农业年鉴2009. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2009: 185-202.

China Agriculture Yearbook Editorial Board. China Agriculture Yearbook 2009. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2009: 185-202. (in Chinese)

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed

Comments

Recommended 0

No Suggested Reading articles found!

Climatic Suitability of Double Rice Planting Regions in China

PDF

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 11

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	ZHENG HuaBin,LI Bo,WANG WeiQin,LEI En,TANG QiYuan. Effects of Different Cultivation Models on Solar Radiation-Nitrogen Use Efficiency and Yield of “Early Indica-Late Japonica” Double Rice [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2021, 54(7): 1565-1578.
[2]	LIU KaiLou, ZHANG HuiMin, HAN TianFu, ZHOU LiJun, LI DaMing, HU ZhiHua, HUANG QingHai, YE HuiCai, XU XiaoLin, HU HuiWen. Effects of Long-Term Application of Chemical and Organic Fertilizers on Root Biomass and Nutrient in Double Cropping Rice System [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2017, 50(18): 3540-3547.
[3]	LIU Shao-jun, ZHOU Guang-sheng, FANG Shi-bo. Climatic Suitability Regionalization of Rubber Plantation in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2015, 48(12): 2335-2345.
[4]	WANG Bin, LI Yu-E, WAN Yun-Fan, QIN Xiao-Bo, GAO Qing-Zhu. Effect and Assessment of Controlled Release Fertilizer and Additive Treatments on Greenhouse Gases Emission from a Double Rice Field [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2014, 47(2): 314-323.
[5]	ZHAO Jin, YANG Xiao-guang, LIU Zhi-Juan, LV Shuo, WANG Jing, CHEN Fu. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅹ. The Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Climatic Suitability of Spring Maize in the Three Provinces of Northeast China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2014, 47(16): 3143-3156.
[6]	ZHOU Dong-Mei-1, ZHANG Ren-Zhi-1, 2 , SUN Wan-Cang-2, 3 , ZHANG Jun-1, 2 , WANG He-Ling-4. Study on Climatic Suitability for Winter Rapeseed Planting in Arid and Cold Regions in North China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2014, 47(13): 2541-2551.
[7]	ZHU Bo, YI Li-Xia, HU Yue-Gao, ZENG Zhao-Hai, TANG Hai-Ming, XIAO Xiao-Ping, YANG Guang-Li. Effects of Ryegrass Incorporation on Fertilizer N Cycling in a Double Rice System [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(13): 2764-2770.
[8]	XIE Jian,ZHENG Sheng-xian,YANG Zeng-ping,NIE Jun,LIAO Yu-lin,WU Xiao-dan,XIANG Yan-wen . Comprehensive Evaluation of Soil Quality in Different Productive Paddy Soils in Typical Double-Rice Cropping Regions of Hunan Province [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2010, 43(23): 4840-4851 .
[9]	YANG Xiao-guang,LIU Zhi-juan,CHEN Fu . The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅰ. The Possible Effects of Climate Warming on Northern Limits of Cropping Systems and Crop Yields in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2010, 43(2): 329-336 .
[10]	WU Jian-fu,PAN Xiao-hua,WANG Lu,SHI Qing-hua,LIU Zong-fa,HU Jin-he . Effects of Continuous No-Tillage on Crop Yield and Soil Fertility in Double Rice Cropping System [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2010, 43(15): 3159-3167 .
[11]	chenchen LIU Fengquan. Potential Distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Erwinia amylovora in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2007, 40(5): 940-947 .