Abstract: 【Objective】 Rubber is an important and indispensable strategic material for national economy construction in China, but the range of rubber plantation in China is restricted due to the limitation of climatic factors. Thus, it is urgent to understand where is suitable for rubber plantation in China. The purpose of this paper is to differentiate climate suitability distribution of rubber tree and to clarify the climate difference of rubber tree plantation in China. 【Method】 Climatic suitability index of rubber plantation were calculated by the maximum entropy model and five main climate factors of rubber tree. (The five main climate factors are mean temperature of the coldest month, mean extremely minimum temperature, the number of month that the monthly mean temperature ≥18℃, annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation). Typhoon disaster indexes of rubber plantation were calculated by historical typhoon data and typhoon disaster classification standard of rubber. Chilling injury indexes of rubber plantation were calculated based on meteorological industry standards of the People’s Republic of China (QX/T169-2012): Grade of rubber chilling injury. According to the natural climate characteristics and biological characteristics of rubber plantation area, the corresponding evaluation factors were used to carry out climatic suitability regionalization by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, including the probability of climate suitability, probability of typhoon disaster, and probability of rubber plantation chilling injury. The climatic suitability regionalization results were divided into high suitable area, medium suitable area, low suitable area. 【Result】 A better climatic regionalization of rubber plantation in China was given in this study based on the comprehensive effects of agroclimatic resources and agrometeorological disasters. The high suitable area was about 4.99×10⁴ km², accounting for 20.94% of the study area. The area includs Danzhou, Chengmai, Ding’an, Ledong and Baoting of Hainan, Xuwen, leizhou, Zhanjiang and Yangjiang of Guangdong, Jinghong and Mongla of Yunnan, Zhao’An, Yunxiao of Fujian, Fangcheng of Guangxi. The regional climate condition is superior, but a part of the area are often influenced by typhoon, so it is necessary to defense typhoon influence on rubber trees. The suitable area is 8.85×10⁴ km², accounting for 35.86% of the study area. There are includs Qiongzhong, Dongfang, Changjiang, Wanning and Qionghai of Hainan, Lianjiang, Gaozhou, Maoming, XinYi, Huilai and Chaozhou of Guangdong, Zhangzhou and Zhangpu of Fujian, Ruili and Jiuguo of Yunnan, Beihai and Hepu of Guangxi, Chilling injury probability of rubber tree is increased compared with the high suitable area, and typhoon probability also increases in part of the area. So, it is important to strengthen the defensive to chilling injury and typhoon damage of rubber according to the characteristics of different disasters. The low suitable area is 10.3×10⁴ km², accounting for 43.20% of the study area. There are includes Yingjiang, Yongde and Simao of Yunnan, Yulin and Pubei of Guangxi, Yangchun, Haifeng and Luhe of Guangdong, and Hua’an of Fujian. The area is mainly affected by chilling injury of rubber.【Conclusion】The advantage area of rubber plantation climatic suitability in China is well reflected by this method, which considered the comprehensive influence of agricultural climate resources and agricultural meteorological disasters. The research result will be of benefit to the government and relevant departments for carrying out regional layout and scientific planning of rubber plantation in China.

Key words: rubber plantation, climatic suitability, regionalization, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, MaxEnt model