国家粮食安全与农业双碳目标的双赢策略

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2021.18.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

粮食安全是国家安全的基石,碳达峰与碳中和已成为我国长期战略。我国是粮食消费大国,95%以上的粮食及重要农产品供应仍然靠国内农业生产。农业既是主要的碳排放源,更是重要的碳固定汇,固碳减排潜力巨大。因此,现代农业不仅可以保障国家粮食及主要农产品的有效供给,而且可以且应该助力国家双碳目标。为此,作者在总结分析国内外相关文献及自己多年研究成果基础上,系统探讨了粮食安全与双碳目标之间的相互联系及双赢策略。结果表明,粮食安全和双碳目标之间,在增产与固碳、增产与减排、固碳与减排以及相关主管部门的政策等层面存在冲突和协同关系,但协同强于冲突;农业双碳目标与绿色高质量发展在方向上高度一致,目标上相辅相成。科研实践和技术示范推广案例也证明,国家粮食安全与农业双碳目标可以通过技术创新和政策创设等途径实现双赢。依据我国农业发展新趋势,作者认为种植业碳排放已基本达峰,在粮食安全背景下农业碳达峰的峰值及达峰进程将取决于畜牧业发展及人民生活水平提升要求;农业碳中和目标能否实现将主要视甲烷（CH₄）等非二氧化碳（CO₂）温室气体减排力度,以及农业综合固碳潜力的发挥。农业碳达峰指日可待,但在目标设定上不能影响国家粮食安全和人民生活改善;农业碳中和任重道远,必须固碳与减排兼顾,并以农业CH₄等非CO₂温室气体减排为优先。总之,粮食安全下实现农业双碳目标是一项系统工程,任务艰巨,需要农业固碳减排科技创新、农业碳监测与评价方法创建、以及农业部门间的协调机制和新政策创设等综合支撑。本文的建议可为国家及地方制定农业碳达峰与碳中和目标及行动方案提供重要参考,为农业固碳减排科技创新和政策创设提供新思路。

关键词: 粮食生产, 气候变化, 碳达峰, 碳中和, 温室气体, 碳固定

Abstract:

Food security is of vital importance for national safety, and carbon peaking and neutralization have become China’s long-term strategies. China is a large country in grain consumption, and more than 95% of China’s demand of grain and important agricultural products depend on domestic agricultural production. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector is one of the main sources of carbon emission and also the important pool of carbon sequestration. Given the great potential of carbon sequestration and emission mitigation, the agriculture sector can play a great role in achieving both national food security and double-carbon goals. Based on literature review and the authors’ research summary, therefore, the authors systematically discussed the inter-linkages and win-win strategy between food security and double-carbon goals. The results showed that there were a lot of tradeoffs and synergies between food security and double-carbon goals, especially between yield enhancement and carbon sequestration, yield enhancement and carbon emission mitigation, and carbon sequestration and emission mitigation, as well as between agricultural institutes and their supporting policies. The effects of the synergies were greater than those of the tradeoffs. Moreover, double-carbon goals of agricultural sectors and green high-quality development were highly consistent in their directions and also complementary in their targets. Research practices and technology demonstration further proved that agricultural double-carbon goal and national food security could achieve win-win situation through technological innovation and supporting policy creation. According to the new trends of China’s agriculture development, the carbon emission of crop production sector has almost reached its peak. Thus, the peak value and peaking time of agricultural carbon emission under the background of food security would depend on the requirements of animal husbandry development and the improvement of people's living standards. And the achievement of agricultural carbon neutral would mainly depend on the emission reduction of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, such as CH₄, and the efforts of comprehensive carbon sequestration in agricultural ecosystem. Although agricultural carbon emission would reach to peak in the near future, the setting of carbon peak goal should not affect national food security and the improvement of people’s lives. However, agricultural carbon neutral is very difficult to achieve, both carbon sequestration and emission reduction should be implemented together, and the emission reduction of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, such as agricultural CH₄, should be given a priority. In summary, it is a systematic project to achieve agricultural double-carbon goals under food security, which needs a great efforts and comprehensive support of scientific and technological innovation of agricultural carbon sequestration and emission reduction, the foundation of agricultural carbon monitoring and evaluation methods, and the creation of new coordinating mechanisms and supporting policies of government agencies related to agriculture. Our research can provide important references for national and local governments to set the goals and action plans of agricultural carbon peak and carbon neutral, as well as new ideas for scientific and technological innovation and supporting policy creation of agricultural carbon sequestration and emission reduction.

Key words: grain production, climate change, carbon emission peak, carbon neutral, greenhouse gas, carbon sequestration

张卫建, 严圣吉, 张俊, 江瑜, 邓艾兴. 国家粮食安全与农业双碳目标的双赢策略[J]. 中国农业科学, 2021, 54(18): 3892-3902.

ZHANG WeiJian, YAN ShengJi, ZHANG Jun, JIANG Yu, DENG Aixing. Win-Win Strategy for National Food Security and Agricultural Double-Carbon Goals[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2021, 54(18): 3892-3902.

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