全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XIV.东北大豆高产稳产区及农业气象灾害分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2022.09.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】大豆是主要的粮油兼用作物,东北三省是我国大豆主产区,研究气候变化背景下东北三省大豆气候生产潜力高产稳产性区域分布及其变化特征,明确不同区域限制大豆高产稳产性的主要农业气象灾害,可为东北三省大豆合理布局、防灾避灾以及高产稳产提供科学参考。【方法】以1981年为时间节点,将研究时段划分为1961—1980年（时段Ⅰ）和1981—2019年（时段Ⅱ）两个时段,利用调参验证后的DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean模型模拟研究区域大豆潜在种植区各站点气候生产潜力,明确气候变化背景下大豆气候生产潜力高产稳产性区域分布及其变化特征;结合大豆冷害和干旱指标,明确不同高产稳产性区域冷害和干旱的时空分布特征;结合统计方法,明确限制大豆高产性和稳产性的主要农业气象灾害因子。【结果】（1）与1961—1980年（时段Ⅰ）相比,1981—2019年（时段Ⅱ）大豆潜在种植区增加2.81×10⁶ hm²,占研究区域总土地面积的3.57%;（2）与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ稳产区面积占比减少,其中高产稳产区面积占潜在种植区内总土地面积的比例由17.67%减少到17.11%,高产不稳产区占比由13.54%增加到15.13%,低产稳产区占比由34.98%增加到38.17%,低产不稳产区占比由18.58%减小到18.49%;（3）研究时段内,大豆生长季冷害发生频次总体呈现先上升后下降趋势,高产稳产和高产不稳产区冷害特别是严重冷害发生频次高于低产稳产区以及低产不稳产区;大豆生长季轻旱和中旱发生频次增加,重旱发生频次减小;（4）大豆产量变化与冷害发生频次呈负相关关系,产量变异性的变化与冷害和干旱发生频次均呈正相关关系。【结论】气候变暖背景下,东北三省大豆潜在种植区呈北移西扩趋势,可种植面积增加;大豆高产不稳产和低产稳产面积增加,高产稳产区和低产不稳产区面积减少;不同高产稳产性区域内主要农业气象灾害不同,低产区较高产区总体低温冷害发生频次高,不稳产区较稳产区干旱发生频次高。但在高产稳产性变化区域,冷害发生频次下降,干旱发生频次上升。总体而言冷害是大豆高产性的主要限制因子,冷害和干旱是大豆产量不稳定的主要限制因子。

关键词: 气候变化, 东北三省大豆, 高产性, 稳产性, 冷害, 干旱

Abstract:

【Objective】 Soybean is an important oil-seeds crop, and Northeast China (NEC) is the main soybean productive region of China. It is important to investigate the distribution of zones both high yield and high yield stability of rain-fed potential yield and to identify the major agro-meteorological disasters, which could provide important scientific references for the reasonable layout of soybean.【Method】The year 1981 was taken as a time node wan divided the period 1961-2019 into two sub-periods (1961-1981 and 1981-2019). The well-calibrated DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean model was applied to simulate rain-fed soybean potential yield at each stations in possible planting area of NEC to clarify the distribution of zones both high yield and high yield stability. The distribution and temporal changes of cold damage and drought were identified in different high-yield and stable-yield zones. Coupled with statistical methods, the limitations of major agro-meteorological disasters on soybean high-stable-yield were further analyzed. 【Result】 (1) Compared with 1961 to 1980 (period Ⅰ), the soybean possible planting area was increased by 2.81×10⁶ hm² (3.57% of the whole land area in NEC). (2) Compared with periodⅠ, the percentage of high stability yield zones area of possible planting area increasing in periodⅡ. The percentage of high-stable zones area in possible planting area decreased from 17.67% to 17.11%, and the percentage of high-unstable yield zones area increased from 34.98% to 38.17%, while the percentage of low-stable area increased from 34.98% to 38.17% and the percentage of low-unstable zones area decreased from 18.58% to 18.49%. (3) During the study period, the frequency of cold damage during soybean growing season showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing. High-stable zones and high-unstable zones showed higher cold damage frequency, especially serious cold damage. The frequency of light drought and moderate drought increased, but the serious drought frequency decreased during the soybean growing season. (4) The yield changes of soybean in zones both high yield and high yield stability were negatively correlated with cold damage frequency, and yield variation changes of soybean were negatively correlated with both cold damage and drought frequencies. 【Conclusion】Under the background of climate warming, the soybean possible planting area expanded northward and westward in NEC, and the area increased. The area of high-unstable and low-stable zones increased, while the area of high-stable and low-unstable zones decreased. The main agro-meteorological disasters were different in zones both high yield and high yield stability. The frequency of cold damage in low yield zones was higher than that in high yield zones, while the frequency of drought in unstable yield zones was higher than stable yield zones. However, in areas with the change in high yield and high yield staiblity zones, the frequency of cold damage decreased and the frequency of drought increased. In summary, the cold damage was the main limiting factor in soybean yield increasing, while cold damage and drought were the main limiting factors in yield stability increasing.

Key words: climate change, soybean of Northeast China, high yield zones, stable yield zones, cold damage, drought

郭世博, 张方亮, 张镇涛, 周丽涛, 赵锦, 杨晓光. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XIV.东北大豆高产稳产区及农业气象灾害分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2022, 55(9): 1763-1780.

GUO ShiBo, ZHANG FangLiang, ZHANG ZhenTao, ZHOU LiTao, ZHAO Jin, YANG XiaoGuang. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XIV. Distribution of High-Stable-Yield Zones and Agro-Meteorological Disasters of Soybean in Northeast China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2022, 55(9): 1763-1780.

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链接本文: https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2022.09.006

https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/Y2022/V55/I9/1763

图/表 15

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DSSAT-CSM-Soybean(v4.7)模型中对大豆品种控制参数的描述"

作物参数 Crop parameter	单位 Unit	描述 Description
EM-FL	d	出苗到初花所需的日数（R1,光温日数） Time between plant emergence and flower appearance (R1, photothermal days)
FL-SH	d	初花到第一个荚所需的日数（R3,光温日数） Time between first flower and first pod (R3, photothermal days)
FL-SD	d	初花到初粒所需的日数（R5,光温日数） Time between first flower and first seed (R5, photothermal days)
SD-PM	d	初粒到生理成熟所需日数（R7,光温日数） Time between first seed (R5) and physiological maturity (R7, photothermal days)
FL-LF	d	第一朵花到叶片完全伸展所需的日数（光温日数） Time between first flower (R1) and end of leaf expansion (photothermal days)
LFMAX	mg CO₂·m^-2·s^-1	光饱和状态下,最适宜温度条件下最大叶片光合速率 Maximum leaf photosynthesis rate at 30℃, 350 vpm CO₂, and high light
SLAVR	cm²·g^-1	代表性叶面积或营养生长高峰期通过环境因子修正的新叶比叶面积 Specific leaf area of cultivar under standard growth conditions
SIZLF	cm²	标准生长条件下,全部叶片的最大面积 Maximum size of full leaf (three leaflets)
XFRT	—	分配到种子和荚皮的每日生长最大百分数 Maximum fraction of daily growth that is partitioned to seed + shell
WTPSD	g	每粒种子的最大重量 Maximum weight per seed
SFDUR	d	标准生长状况下,籽粒灌浆所需日数（光温日数） Seed filling duration for pod cohort at standard growth conditions (photothermal days)
SDPDV	#/pod	标准生长状况下,每个豆荚的平均籽粒数 Average seed per pod under standard growing conditions
PODUR	d	品种在最佳状态下,达到豆荚最大数量时所经历的日数（光温日数） Time required for cultivar to reach final pod load under optimal conditions (photothermal days)

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省份 Province	播种日期 Sowing date	分枝日期 Branch date	开花日期 Flowering date	成熟日期 Maturity date
辽宁 Liaoning	4下-5上 L-Apr. to E-May	6中-下 M-Jun. to L-Jun.	7上 E-Jul.	9中 M-Sep.
吉林 Jilin	5上-中 E-May to M-May	6中-下 M-Jun. to L-Jun.	7上 E-Jul.	9中-下 M-Sep. to L-Sep.
黑龙江 Heilongjiang	5中 M-May	6下 L-Jun.	7上-中 E-Jul. to M-Jul.	9下 L-Sep.

熟期组 Maturity group (MG)	站点 Station	数据集 Subset	试验年份或参数来源 Experiment data or parameters source
MG00	嫩江 Nenjiang	调参 Calibration	1991-1994
MG00	嫩江 Nenjiang	验证 Evaluation	1995, 1997-2000
MG0	宝清 Baoqing	调参 Calibration	1991, 1992, 1994
MG0	宝清 Baoqing	验证 Evaluation	1995-1997
MGⅠ	哈尔滨 Haerbin	调参 Calibration	1992-1995
MGⅠ	哈尔滨 Haerbin	验证 Evaluation	1997-2000
MGⅡ	双阳 Shuangyang	调参 Calibration	1991-1994
MGⅡ	双阳 Shuangyang	验证 Evaluation	1996, 1997, 1999, 2000
MGⅢ	新民 Xinmin	调参 Calibration	1992-1995
MGⅢ	新民 Xinmin	验证 Evaluation	1998-2000

冷害强度 Cold damage intensity		T_5-9≤80	80<T_5-9≤85	85<T_5-9≤90	90<T_5-9≤95	95<T_5-9≤100	100<T_5-9≤105
∆T_5-9	一般冷害 Gentle cold damage	-1.7<∆T_5-9≤-1.1	-2.4<∆T_5-9≤-1.4	-3.1<∆T_5-9≤-1.7	-3.7<∆T_5-9≤-2.0	-4.1<∆T_5-9≤-2.2	-4.4<∆T_5-9≤-2.3
∆T_5-9	严重冷害 Serious cold damage	∆T_5-9≤-1.7	∆T_5-9≤-2.4	∆T_5-9≤-3.1	∆T_5-9≤-3.7	∆T_5-9≤-4.1	∆T_5-9≤-4.4

干旱等级 Drought level	作物水分亏缺指数（CWDI,%）
无旱 No drought	CWDI≤35
轻旱 Light drought	35<CWDI≤45
中旱 Moderate drought	45<CWDI≤55
重旱 Severe drought	55<CWDI≤65
特旱 Extreme drought	CWDI>65

	时段Ⅰ PeriodⅠ		时段Ⅱ PeriodⅡ		与时段I相比面积变化 Change in area compared to periodⅠ
	面积 Area (×10⁶ hm²)	占潜在种植区土地面积比例 Percentage in research area (%)	面积 Area (×10⁶ hm²)	占研究种植区土地面积比例 Percentage in research area (%)	面积 Area (×10⁶ hm²)	占研究种植区土地面积比例 Percentage in research area (%)
高产稳产区 High-stable	11.99	17.67	11.62	17.11	-0.37	-0.54
高产不稳产区 High-unstable	9.19	13.54	10.28	15.13	1.08	1.59
低产稳产区 Low-stable	23.75	34.98	25.92	38.17	2.17	3.19
低产不稳产区 Low-unstable	18.58	27.36	18.49	27.24	-0.08	-0.12