中国农业科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (19): 3997-4006.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.19.005

• 耕作栽培·生理生化·农业信息技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅸ.长江中下游地区单双季稻高低温灾害风险及其产量影响

 李勇12, 杨晓光2, 叶清23, 陈阜4   

  1. 1.贵州省山地环境气候研究所/贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵阳 550002
    2.中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京 100193
    3.江西农业大学林学院,南昌 330043
    4.中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2013-02-04 出版日期:2013-10-01 发布日期:2013-06-03
  • 通讯作者: 通信作者杨晓光,E-mail:yangxg@cau.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:李勇,E-mail:zynjw@cau.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    全球气候变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(“973”计划)(2010CB951502)、国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106020)

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅸ. The Risk of High and Low Temperature Disasters for Single and Double Rice and Its Impacts on Rice Yield in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain

 LI  Yong-12, YANG  Xiao-Guang-2, YE  Qing-23, CHEN  Fu-4   

  1. 1.Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment and Climate/Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resources, Guiyang 550002
    2.College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193
    3.Forestry Institute of Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330043
    4.College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193
  • Received:2013-02-04 Online:2013-10-01 Published:2013-06-03

摘要: 【目的】以1981年为界,将20世纪50年代至2010年划分为两个时段,对比分析1951—1980年和1981—2010年长江中下游地区双季稻安全种植界限及敏感区域面积变化,定量评估长江中下游地区双季稻安全种植敏感区域内单季稻和双季稻生长季内高温灾害和低温灾害发生风险及高低温灾害对水稻产量的影响程度。【方法】利用中国种植制度分区标准和农业气候指标,分析了1981—2010年双季稻安全种植界限变化敏感区域,并基于水稻高温灾害和低温灾害指标,采用Oryza2000对敏感区域内单季稻和双季稻的高低温灾害风险及其对产量的影响进行了定量化评估。【结果】与1951—1980年相比,1981—2010年长江中下游地区双季稻安全种植区增加了11.5万 km2;1981—2010年,双季早稻、晚稻和单季稻发生频率最大的高低温灾害分别为秧田期低温、灌浆—成熟低温以及孕穗—抽穗高温,而对双季早稻、晚稻和单季稻产量影响最大的灾害分别是秧田期低温、孕穗—抽穗低温和灌浆—成熟高温;双季早稻、晚稻和单季稻在不同生育阶段的高温灾害次数大多呈增加趋势,而低温灾害次数大多呈减少趋势。【结论】在全球气候变暖背景下,长江中下游地区双季稻安全种植区域发生了明显变化,敏感区域内单双季稻的高低温灾害风险及其对产量的影响均存在明显差异。

关键词: 长江中下游地区 , 气候变化 , 水稻 , 灾害风险 , 产量

Abstract: 【Objective】 In this study, the change of safety planting northern limits of double rice cropping systems and the areas of sensitive regions caused by climate change during 1981 to 2010 and 1951 to 1980 were analyzed in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. Also the risk of high and low temperature hazards during the growing season of single rice and double rice and its impacts on rice yields in the sensitive planting regions for rice safety planting (SPR) were compared and discussed.【Method】SPR were determined based on the indices of regionalization for cropping systems and agro-meteorology methods. Then according to the indices of high temperature and low temperature hazards for rice, the impacts of these two disasters on rice yields in SPR were analyzed by Oryza2000 model.【Result】Compared with 1951 to 1980, the areas of SPR in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain increased by 11.5×104 km2. The high and low temperature disasters with the largest frequency for early, late, and single rice are low temperature disaster during seedling bed period, low temperature disaster during filling and ripening period, and high temperature disaster during booting and heading period, respectively. However, the disasters with the greatest impacts on crop yield for early, late, and single rice are low temperature disaster during seedling bed period, low temperature disaster during booting and heading period, and high temperature disaster during filling and ripening period. The frequency of mostly high temperature disaster during different growing periods for early, late and single rice increased, and the frequency of mostly low temperature disaster decreased.【Conclusion】Under the background of climate warming, the obvious changes for safety planting area of double rice cropping systems in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain were found. There were significant differences for the risks of high and low temperature disaster and its impacts on rice yields in the areas of SPR during the growing season of single and double rice.

Key words: the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain , climate change , rice , disaster risk , yield