关键词: 气候变暖 , 冬小麦 , 冬春性 , 种植界限 , 冻害风险

Abstract: 【Objective】 Under the background of global climate change, the temperature in winter increased significantly from 1980s in China, how would this change affect the planting boundary of different winterness varieties of winter wheat in China? In order to answer this scientific question, the authors took the year 1981 as a time node and divided the interval 1951-2010 into two periods, then comparatively analyzed the change characteristics of north planting boundaries, south planting boundary and possible planting areas for strong winterness, winterness, weak winterness, and springness type winter wheat varieties in China due to increased temperature in winter during the latter period.【Method】 The northern and southern boundaries of different winter wheat types were defined according to the freezing damage index which restricted normal overwintering of winter wheat and the index which affects vernalization days of winter wheat. The changes of planting areas as well as coverage square meters of different winter wheat types were drawn with ArcGIS software. 【Result】 Compared with the period 1951-1980, in the period 1981-2010, the northern planting boundary of strong winterness winter wheat showed the most significant northward moving trend along Ningxia to Gansu and Hebei to Liaoning, with a spatial shift of 200 km and 100 km, respectively, and the southern planting boundary of strong winterness winter wheat showed a relatively more significant northward moving trend in the eastern region than the western region, with a spatial shift of 90 km along Jiangsu and Anhui zone, in addition, the possible planting area of strong winterness winter wheat in China increased by 36.24×104 km2 in total. The northern planting boundary of winterness winter wheat moved significantly along Shandong and Hebei, with a northward shift of 310 km, and the southern planting boundary of winterness winter wheat showed a significant westward moving trend along Bijie and Xishui stations in Guizhou, with a spatial shift of 95 km, also, the possible planting area of winterness winter wheat in China increased by 17.75×104 km2 in total. The northern planting boundary of weak winterness winter wheat showed a significant change trend around the common border of Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan and Shandong, with a northward shift of 120-370 km, yet the change trend in the western region was insignificant, the southern planting boundary of weak winterness winter wheat showed a slight northward moving trend, nevertheless, the possible planting area of weak winterness winter wheat in China increased by 15.70×104 km2 in total. The northern planting boundary of springness type winter wheat showed a significant moving trend along Jiangsu, Anhui and Henan, with a northward shift of 230 km, however, the change trend in the western region was insignificant, and the possible planting area of springness type winter wheat in China increased by 23.44×104 km2 in total. The north of North China was oriented by strong winterness winter wheat variety, South China was oriented by springness type winter wheat, there were relatively more possible planting winter wheat varieties in Henan, Shandong and Sichuan while winterness and weak winterness winter wheat were the oriented varieties.【Conclusion】 Due to the temperature in winter increasing obviously in China, compared to period 1951-1980, the planting boundaries of different winter wheat varieties in China moved northward significantly in period 1981-2010, and the northward moving trend of northern planting boundaries was more than that of southern planting boundaries, the possible planting area of winter wheat increased in all, especially, the strong winterness winter wheat showed the most significant moving trend in planting boundaries and possible planting area.

Key words: climate warming , winter wheat , winter-spring varieties , planting boundary , risk of freezing damage