Please wait a minute...
Journal of Integrative Agriculture
Journal of Integrative Agriculture  2018, Vol. 17 Issue (01): 1-15    DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(17)61794-5
Review Advanced Online Publication | Current Issue | Archive | Adv Search |
Climate change and agriculture: Impacts and adaptive responses in Iran
Vahid Karimi1, Ezatollah Karami1, Marzieh Keshavarz2
1 Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz 71441-65186, Iran
2 Department of Agriculture, Payame Noor University, Tehran 19395-4697, Iran
Download:  PDF in ScienceDirect  
Export:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
Abstract  The impacts of climate change on agriculture are still shadowed with uncertainty.  However, climate change is expected to adversely affect Iran’s agricultural practices through changes in precipitation, temperature and carbon dioxide fertilization.  Therefore, adaptation of this sector to the increasing weather events is imperative.  This study is aimed to document the likely impacts of climate change on Iran’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers.  The review of literature shows that changes in rainfall and water endowments will have significant impacts on crop yield, crops’ water requirements and income and welfare of farm families.  The extent of the changes in yield depends on the crop type, assumptions related to the CO2 fertilization effect, climate scenarios and adaptation abilities.  On adaptation, the government’s efforts have been distinguished in the improving agricultural productivity and irrigation development based on current technology, developing new technologies and policy reforms.  Farmers’ adaptive responses have also been identified.  Some conclusions and recommendations are offered to increase the adaptive capacity of farmers and reduce negative impacts of climate change.  
Keywords:  climate change        agriculture              impacts        adaptation        Iran  
Received: 23 February 2017   Accepted:
Corresponding Authors:  Correspondence Vahid Karimi,Tel:+98-71-32286072,E-mail:vakarimi69@gmail.com   
Service
E-mail this article
Add to citation manager
E-mail Alert
RSS
Articles by authors

Cite this article: 

Vahid Karimi, Ezatollah Karami, Marzieh Keshavarz. 2018. Climate change and agriculture: Impacts and adaptive responses in Iran. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 17(01): 1-15.

Abbaspour A C, Faramarzi M, Seyed Ghasemi S, Yang H. 2009. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran. Water Resources Research, 45, W10434.

Amiri M J, Eslamian S S. 2010. Investigation of climate change in Iran. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 3, 208–216.

Ashofteh P S, Bozorg Haddad O, Massah Bavani A. 2011. Impact of climate change on water requirement of Aidoghmoush irrigation network. In: 21st International Congress on Irrigation and Drainage. International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, Tehran.

Bannayan M, Eyshi Rezaei E. 2014. Future production of rainfed wheat in Iran (Khorasan province): Climate change scenario analysis. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 19, 211–227.  

Chen C, Wang E, Yu Q. 2010. Modelling the effects of climate variability and water management on crop water productivity and water balance in the North China Plain. Agricultural Water Management, 97, 1175–1184.

Cheshmi A. 2014. The impact of climate change on groundwater resources using climatic, SPI indices and neural network NARX: A case study of Ramhormoz plain, Khozestan province, southern Iran. International Bulletin of Water Resources & Development, 2, 54–70. (in Persian)

Evans J P. 2009. 21st century climate change in the Middle East. Climatic Change, 92, 417–432.

Eyshi Rezaei E, Bannayan M. 2012. Rainfed wheat yields under climate change in northeastern Iran. Meteorological Applications, 19, 346–354.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2016. FAOSTAT. Rome, Italy. [2017-1-14]. http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QA/E

Forouzani M, Karami E. 2010. Agricultural water poverty index and sustainability. Agronomy for Sustainable Development,  31, 415–431.

Ghalavand K, Koshteh K, Hashemi A. 2012. Agriculture insurance as a risk management strategy in climate change scenario: A study in Islamic Republic of Iran. International Journal of Agriculture and Crop Sciences, 4, 831–838. 

Hajarpoor A, Soltani A, Zeinali E, Sayyedi F. 2014. Simulating climate change impacts on production of chickpea under water-limited conditions. Agriculture Science Development, 3, 209–217.

Hertel T W, Lobell D B. 2014. Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions. Energy Economics, 46, 562–575.

Hijmans R J. 2003. The effect of climate change on global potato production. American Journal of Potato Research, 80, 271–280.

Hoseini S, Nazari M R, Araghinejad S. 2013. Investigating the impacts of climate change on agricultural sector with emphasize on the role of adaptation strategies in this sector. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 44, 1–16. (in Persian)

Howden S M, Soussana J F, Tubiello F N, Chhetri N, Dunlop M, Meinke H. 2007. Adapting agriculture to climate change.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104, 19691–19696.

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Core Writing Team, Pachauri R K, Reisinger A, eds., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

IPCC. 2013. Summary for Policymakers. In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, Tignor M, Allen S K, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley P M, eds., Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

IPCC. 2014. Summary for Policymakers. In: Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, Farahani E, Kadner S, Seyboth K, Adler A, Baum I, Brunner S, Eickemeier P, Kriemann B, Savolainen J, Schlömer S, von Stechow C, Zwickel T, Minx J C, eds., Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Isoard S. 2011. Perspectives on adaptation to climate change in Europe. In: Ford J D, Berrang-Ford L, eds., Climate Change Adaptation in Developed Nations: From Theory to Practice. Springer, New York.

Jarvis L S, Pétraud J P. 2013. Climate change and increasing aridity: The fate of agriculture and rural communities in the Middle East and North Africa. In: Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy. Aqaba, Jordan.

Karami E. 2012. Climate change, resilience and poverty in the developing world. In: Culture, Politics and Climate Change Conference. University of Colorado Boulder, USA.

Karami E, Zamani G, Keshavarz M. 2008. Factors contributing towards continuation of agricultural products insurance among Iranian farmers. Journal of Agricultural Economy and Development, 62, 53–81. (in Persian)

Karimi V, Karami E, Keshavarz M. 2017. Vulnerability and adaptation of Iranian livestock producers to climate variability and change. Rangeland Ecology Management, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2017.09.006

Keshavarz A, Ashrafi S, Hydari N, Pouran M, Farzaneh E. 2005. Water allocation and pricing in agriculture of Iran. In: Water Conservation, Reuse and Recycling: Proceedings of an Iranian-American Workshop. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

Keshavarz M, Karami E. 2013. Institutional adaptation to drought: The case of Fars Agricultural Organization. Journal of Environmental Management, 127, 61–68.

Keshavarz M, Karami E. 2014. Farmers’ decision making process under drought. Journal of Arid Environments, 108, 43–56.

Keshavarz M, Karami E, Kamgare-Haghighi A. 2010. A typology of farmers’ drought management. American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, 7, 415–426.

Keshavarz M, Karami E, Lahsaeizadeh A. 2013a. Factors influencing the rural migrations resulting from drought: A case study in Fars province. A Quarterly Journal of Rural Development Studies, 16, 113–127. (in Persian)

Keshavarz M, Karami E, Vanclay F. 2013b. Social experience of drought in rural Iran. Land Use Policy, 30, 120–129.

Keshavarz M, Karami E, Zamani G H. 2011. Drought vulnerability of farm households: A case study. Iran Agricultural Extension and Education Journal, 6, 15–32.

Keshavarz M, Karami E, Zibaie M. 2014. Adaptation of Iranian farmers to climate variability and change. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1163–1174.

Keshavarz M, Maleksaeidi H, Karami E. 2017. Livelihood vulnerability to drought: A case of rural Iran. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 21, 223–230.

Khaleghi S, Bazazan F, Madani S H. 2015. The effects of climate change on agricultural production and Iranian economy. Journal of Research in Agricultural Economy, 7, 113–135. (in Persian)

Koocheki A, Nassiri M. 2008. Impacts of climate change and CO2 concentration on wheat yield in Iran and adaptation strategies. Iranian Field Crops Research, 6, 139–153. (in Persian)

Lashkari A, Alizadeh A, Eyshi Rezaei E, Bannayan M. 2012. Mitigation of climate change impacts on maize productivity in northeast of Iran: A simulation study. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 17, 1–16.

Madani K, AghaKouchak A, Mirchi A. 2016. Iran’s socio-economic drought: Challenges of a water-bankrupt nation. Iranian Studies, 49, 997–1016.

Maddah V, Soltani A, Zeinali E, Bannayan M. 2015. Simulating climate change impacts on wheat production in Gorgan, Iran. Bulletin of Environment, Pharmacology and Life Sciences, 4, 58–67.

Massah Bavani A, Morid S. 2005. The impact of climate change on water resources and agriculture production: A case study of Zayandeh-Rud basin. Research on Water Resources of Iran, 1, 40–47. (in Persian)

Ministry of Jihad-Keshavarzi. 2013. Strategies for reducing drought impacts on agricultural sector. Department of Planning and Economic, Ministry of Jihad-Keshavarzi, Tehran. [2017-2-23]. http://www.maj.ir (in Persian)

Mirsane M S, Sohrabi Molla Yousefi T, Massah Bavani A, Bazrafshan J. 2011. Climate change and agricultural water demand: Assessing impact of uncertainties of AOGCM and downscaling methods. In: 21st International Congress on Irrigation and Drainage. International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, Tehran.

Mohammadnejad B. 2010. Climate Change Imapct Assessment on Rainfall-Runoff Process: Case Study of Pishin Reservior Basin Iran. Sistan and Baloochestan Regional Water Company, Iran. (in Persian)

Moradi R, Koocheki A, Nassiri M. 2014. Adaptation of maize to climate change impacts in Iran. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 19, 1223–1238.  

Moradi R, Koocheki A, Nassiri Mahallati M, Mansoori H. 2013. Adaptation strategies for maize cultivation under climate change in Iran: Irrigation and planting date management. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 18, 265–284.

Morid S, Moghaddasi M, Salavitabr A, Delavar M, Hosseini S, Fathian F, Ahmadzade H, Sahebdel S, Keshavarz A, Ghaemi H, Arshad S, Bagheri M, Agha Alikhani M. 2012. Drought Risk Management Plan for Lake Urmia Basin: Summary Report. Working Group on Sustainable Management of Water Resources and Agriculture, Regional Council of Lake Urmia Basin Management.

Motagh M, Walter T R, Sharifi M A, Fielding E, Schenk A J. 2008. Land subsidence in Iran caused by widespread water reservoir overexploitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L16403. 

Nassiri M, Koocheki A, Kamali G A, Shahandeh H. 2006. Potential impact of climate change on rainfed wheat production in Iran. Archeves of Agronomy and Soil Sciences, 52, 113–124.

Nazari M R. 2015. The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Iranian Agricultural Sector. Technical Workshop Of Investigating Climate Change Related Challenges and Implementing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Iran. Tehran. (in Persian)

NCCO (National Climate Change Office). 2010. Iran’s Second National Communication to UNFCCC. Department of Environment, Iran.  

NRIDR. 2005. National report of the Islamic Republic of Iran on disaster reduction. In: World Conference on Disaster Reduction. January, 18–22. Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.

Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Inglesias A, Livermore M, Gischer G. 2004. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environment Change, 14, 53–67.

Ravindranath N H, Sathaye J A. 2003. Climate Change and Developing Countries. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.

Roudier P, Sultan B, Quirion P, Berg A. 2011. The impacts of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say? Global Environmental Change, 21, 1073–1083.

Salami H, Shahnooshi N, Thomson K J. 2009. The ecnomic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches. Ecological Economics, 68, 1032–1039.

Shahkarami N, Morid S, Massah Bavani A, Agha Alikhani M. 2011. Risk analysis and integrated water resources management based adaptation strategies for Zayandeh-Rud irrigation system, Iran. In: 21st International Congress on Irrigation and Drainage. International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, Tehran.

Shahkarami N, Morid S, Massah Bavani A, Fahmi H. 2007. Risk analysis of changes in crops water requirements under climate change in Zayandeh-Rud river basin. In: Technical Workshop of the Impacts of Climate Change on Management of Water Resources. Iran National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage, Tehran. (in Persian)

Sheidaei F, Karami E, Keshavarz M. 2016. Farmers’ attitude towards wastewater use in Fars province, Iran. Water Policy, 18, 355–367.

Skoufias E, Rabassa M, Olivieri S. 2011. The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change: A Review of the Evidence. Policy Research Working Paper 5622. The World Bank.

von Spannenberg S L, Hennum A. 2012. Overview of Climate Change Financing Mechanisms in Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria and Yemen. The Global Mechanism of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), Italy.

Toofan Tabrizi N. 2009. The impacts of climate change on fresh groundwater resources in coastal areas: A case study of Dayer plain, Kangan, Iran. MSc thesis, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran. (in Persian)

Vafa M N, Chehreh Negar A. 2001. Economic impacts of drought on agricultural sector and role of agriculture bank on supporting vulnerable farmers and herders. In: Amin S, Nazem Sadat M J, Kamgar Haghighi A A, eds., First Workshop on Drought related Problems in Fars Province.October, 19–20. College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Iran. (in Persian)

Vaghefi S A, Mousavi S J, Abbaspour K C, Srinivasan R, Yang H. 2013. Analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh river basin in Iran. Hydrological Processes, 28, 2018–2032.

Valizadeh J, Ziaei S M, Mazloumzadeh S M. 2014. Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study). Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences, 13, 107–115.    

Vaseghi A, Esmaeili A. 2008. Investigation of economic impacts of climate change on agriculture sector of Iran: Ricardian model (a case study: Wheat). Journal of Science and Technology of Agriculture & Natural Resources, 45, 685–696.   

VijayaVenkataRaman S, Iniyan S, Goic R. 2012. A review of climate change, mitigation and adaptation. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16, 878–897.

WAVA (Working Group of Assessing Vulnerability of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fishery’ Sectors). 2015. Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation of Agricultural, Animal Husbandry and Fishery’ Sectors to Climate Change: A Case of Iran. Working Group of Assessing Vulnerability of Agriculture, Tehran, Iran. (in Persian)

Yang H, Reichert P, Abbaspour K C, Zehnder A J B. 2003. A water resources threshold and its implications for food security. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 37, 3048–3054.

Zarrineh N, Azari Najaf Abad M. 2014. Integrated water resources management in Iran: Environmental, socio-economic and political review of drought in Lake Urmia. International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, 6, 40–48.
 
[1] Md. Zasim Uddin, Md. Nadim Mahamood, Ausrukona Ray, Md. Ileas Pramanik, Fady Alnajjar, Md Atiqur Rahman Ahad. E2ETCA: End-to-end training of CNN and attention ensembles for rice disease diagnosis[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 756-768.
[2] Jinbu Wang, Wencheng Zong, Liangyu Shi, Mianyan Li, Jia Li, Deming Ren, Fuping Zhao, Lixian Wang, Ligang Wang. Using mixed kernel support vector machine to improve the predictive accuracy of genome selection[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 775-787.
[3] Yaling Yu, Hongfan Ge, Hang Gao, Yanyan Zhang, Kangping Liu, Zhenlei Zhou. Changes of bone remodeling, cartilage damage and apoptosis-related pathways in broilers with femoral head necrosis[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 788-802.
[4] Hui Song, Meiran Li, Zhenquan Duan. Current status of the genetic transformation of Arachis plants[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 577-584.
[5] Yue Song, Heng Wang, Mingyang Wang, Yumin Wang, Xiuxiang Lu, Wenjie Fan, Chen Yao, Pengxiang Liu, Yanjie Ma, Shengli Ming, Mengdi Wang, Lijun Shi. A novel TLR7 agonist exhibits antiviral activity against pseudorabies virus[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 803-813.
[6] Qiuling Huang, Yan Liao, Chunhui Huang, Huan Peng, Lingchiu Tsang, Borong Lin, Deliang Peng, Jinling Liao, Kan Zhuo. Integrative identification of Aphelenchoides fragariae (Nematoda: Aphelenchoididae) parasitizing Fuchsia hybrid in China[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 769-774.
[7] Jun Deng, Ke Liu, Xiangqian Feng, Jiayu Ye, Matthew Tom Harrison, Peter de Voil, Tajamul Hussain, Liying Huang, Xiaohai Tian, Meixue Zhou, Yunbo Zhang. Exploring strategies for agricultural sustainability in super hybrid rice using the food–carbon–nitrogen–water–energy–profit nexus framework[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 624-638.
[8] Xijun Wang, Hong Huo, Lei Shuai, Jinying Ge, Liyan Peng, Jinming Wang, Shuang Xiao, Weiye Chen, Zhiyuan Wen, Jinliang Wang, Zhigao Bu. Evaluation of safety and immunogenicity of a genetically modified rabies virus for use as an oral vaccine in several non-target species[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 814-819.
[9] Jing Gao, Shenglan Li, Yi Lei, Qi Wang, Zili Ning, Zhaohong Lu, Xianming Tan, Mei Xu, Feng Yang, Wenyu Yang. Delayed photosynthesis response causes carbon assimilation reduction in soybean under fluctuating light[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 648-658.
[10] Lihong Ma, Pengtao Wang, QianHao Zhu, Xinqi Cheng, Tao Zhang, Xinyu Zhang, Huaguo Zhu, Zuoren Yang, Jie Sun, Feng Liu. Unbalanced lipid metabolism in anther, especially the disorder of the alpha-linolenic acid metabolism pathway, leads to cotton male sterility[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 610-623.
[11] Teng Li, Shumei Wang, Qing Liu, Xuepeng Zhang, Lin Chen, Yuanquan Chen, Wangsheng Gao, Peng Sui. Effects of changing assimilate supply on starch synthesis in maize kernels under high temperature stress[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 639-647.
[12] Xiqiang Li, Yuhong Gao, Zhengjun Cui, Tingfeng Zhang, Shiyuan Chen, Shilei Xiang, Lingling Jia, Bin Yan, Yifan Wang, Lizhuo Guo, Bing Wu . Optimized nitrogen and potassium fertilizers application increases stem lodging resistance and grain yield of oil flax by enhancing lignin biosynthesis[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 659-670.
[13] Xin Wan, Dangjun Wang, Junya Li, Shuaiwen Zhang, Linyang Li, Minghui He, Zhiguo Li, Hao Jiang, Peng Chen, Yi Liu. Land use type shapes carbon pathways in Tibetan alpine ecosystems: Characterization of 13C abundance in aggregates and density fractions[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 448-459.
[14] Liyan Wang, Buqing Wang, Zhengmiao Deng, Yonghong Xie, Tao Wang, Feng Li, Shao’an Wu, Cong Hu, Xu Li, Zhiyong Hou, Jing Zeng Ye’ai Zou, Zelin Liu, Changhui Peng, Andrew Macrae. Surface soil organic carbon losses in Dongting Lake floodplain as evidenced by field observations from 2013 to 2022[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 436-447.
[15] Xi Chen, Khalid Ayesha, Xue Wen, Yanan Zhang, Mengru Dou, Kexuan Jia, Yong Wang, Yuling Li, Feng Sun, Guotian Liu, Yan Xu. An integrate methods to improve the high efficiency of embryo rescue breeding in seedless grapes[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(2): 721-733.
No Suggested Reading articles found!

About JIA

Editorial board

For authors

Copyright © Journal of Integrative Agriculture
Sponsored by Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)
Co-sponsored by China Association of Agricultural Science Societies (CAASS)
Operated by Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS (Editorial Office of Journal of Integrative Agriculture is an internal department of Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS)
Publishing Service by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.
Full text available online at ScienceDirect