Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (8): 1564-1578.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2025.08.008

• SOIL & FERTILIZER·WATER-SAVING IRRIGATION·AGROECOLOGY & ENVIRONMENT • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Dynamic Changes in Dryland and Paddy Field of Northeast China Using RothC Model

ZHANG HaoXin1(), YU ShengYue1, LEI QiuLiang1(), DU XinZhong1, ZHANG Jizong1, AN MiaoYing1, FAN BingQian1, LUO JiaFa2, LIU HongBin1   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Non-Point Source Pollution Control, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Changping Soil Quality National Observation and Research Station/State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-Arid Arable Land in Northern China/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    2 AgResearch Ruakura Research Centre, 10 Bisley Road, Hamilton 3214, New Zealand
  • Received:2024-07-25 Accepted:2024-09-19 Online:2025-04-16 Published:2025-04-21
  • Contact: LEI QiuLiang

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Abstract:

【Objective】 This study explored the applicability of the RothC model for simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in dryland and paddy fields in Northeast China and evaluated the impact of various calibration methods on simulation performance.【Method】 This study selected one typical dryland and one typical paddy field as long-term experimental sites. The dryland experiment was conducted at the Heilongjiang Agricultural Ecology Experimental Station of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2004-2015), and the paddy field experiment utilized data from the 850 Farm (2010-2017). At each experimental site, two treatments were selected for model simulation validation and performance evaluation: one with fertilization only, without straw return (NPK), and the other with both fertilization and straw returning (NPKS). For the paddy field soil, in addition to the RothC model, two modified versions, including RothC_p and RothC_0.6, were also selected for suitability evaluation. Three different model calibration methods were employed: the equilibrium method, parameter optimization method, and transfer function method, to analyze the impact of these calibration methods on model simulation performance. Normalized root mean square error (nRMSE), mean difference (MD), and the index of agreement (d) were selected as model evaluation metrics. 【Result】At the Heilongjiang station, organic carbon input exhibited a significant fluctuating trend, with the average annual carbon input under NPK and NPKS treatments being 1.71 and 3.52 t·hm-², respectively. In contrast, organic carbon input at the 850 Farm was relatively stable, with the average annual carbon input for NPK and NPKS treatments being 1.89 and 5.90 t·hm-², respectively. The simulation validation results from the Heilongjiang station showed that, under different model calibration methods, the nRMSE was consistently below 5%, and the index of agreement (d) ranged from 0.60 to 0.74. This indicated that the model performance was excellent across all calibration methods, and RothC was able to accurately simulate the SOC stock changes for both NPK and NPKS treatments in the dryland. When using the M2 method, the nRMSE for NPK and NPKS was the smallest, at 3.46% and 3.09%, respectively. The simulation validation results for the 850 Farm showed that the MD for RothC and RothC_p ranged from -1.47 to -13.41, with nRMSE values between 2.90% and 26.48% and d-values all below 0.1. This indicated that both models significantly overestimated the increase in SOC stocks and were unable to accurately simulate the changes in SOC stocks in the paddy field. For the RothC_0.6 model under the NPK treatment, the MD ranged from -0.08 to 0.44, with nRMSE values between 0.24% and 0.85% and d-values ranging from 0.31 to 0.76. Under the NPKS treatment, the MD ranged from -5.71 to -6.22, with nRMSE values between 11.21% and 12.12% and d-values between 0.12 and 0.13. These results indicated that RothC_0.6 could accurately simulate the dynamic changes in SOC stocks under the NPK treatment but significantly overestimate the changes in SOC stocks under the NPKS treatment.【Conclusion】RothC and RothC_0.6 were suitable for studying the dynamic changes in SOC stocks under dryland and paddy field conditions without straw returning in the Northeast region, respectively, and could accurately simulate the trends in SOC stocks. The impact of different model calibration methods on simulation performance was not significant. However, the transfer function method was simpler to compute, saved model running time, and provided better simulation performance. Therefore, this study recommended prioritizing the use of the transfer function method for model calibration.

Key words: RothC model, SOC, straw return, model calibration methods, dryland, paddy, Northeast China

Fig. 1

Monthly mean temperature, precipitation and ET0 of Hailun station(a) and Farm 850 (b)"

Table 1

Basic physical and chemical properties of soil"

站点
Site		 试验处理
Treatment		 有机质
SOM (g·kg-1)		 全氮
Total N (g·kg-1)		 全磷
Total P (g·kg-1)		 全钾
Total K (g·kg-1)		 黏粒含量
Clay (%)		 容重
Bulk density (g·cm-3)		 pH
海伦站
Hailun station		 NPK 47.4 2.35 0.73 17.79 42.39 1.12 5.79
NPKS 45.9 2.33 0.73 19.47 42.76 1.21 5.86
八五〇农场
850 Farm		 NPK 34.66 1.83 0.74 19.10 32.50 1.29 5.48
NPKS 34.66 1.75 0.73 18.20 32.50 1.29 5.75

Table 2

Calculation parameters for different crop residues"

作物 Crop PRS Pstubble Cplant (g·kg-1) 参考文献Reference
玉米 Maize 0.351 0.03 444 [27]
大豆 Soybean 0.317 0.10 420 [28-29]
水稻 Rice 0.200 0.10 400 [30]

Fig. 2

Annual carbon inputs for each treatment at Hailun station (a) and Farm 850 (b)"

Table 3

Allocation of each carbon pool under different calibration methods"

站点
Site		 处理
Treatment		 校准方法
Calibration		 各碳库含量 Content of each carbon pool (t·hm-2) 总有机碳
TSOC
(t·hm-2)
易分解碳库
DPM		 难分解碳库
RPM		 微生物碳库
BIO		 腐殖化碳库
HUM		 惰性碳库
IOM
海伦站
Hailun station		 NPK M1 1.37 7.86 1.17 45.82 5.35 61.58
M2 0.75 7.41 1.14 46.94 5.35 61.58
M3 0.02 7.42 1.09 47.71 5.35 61.58
NPKS M1 1.43 8.18 1.23 47.72 5.61 64.16
M2 0.78 7.71 1.18 48.88 5.61 64.16
M3 0.01 7.72 1.13 49.69 5.61 64.16
八五〇农场
Farm 805		 NPK M1 0.61 6.7 1.01 39.07 4.39 51.78
M2 0.3 6.64 1.02 39.42 4.39 51.78
M3 0.03 6.44 0.9 40.01 4.39 51.78
NPKS M1 0.61 6.7 1.01 39.07 4.39 51.78
M2 0.3 6.64 1.02 39.42 4.39 51.78
M3 0.03 6.44 0.9 40.01 4.39 51.78

Fig. 3

Comparison between simulated and measured values using different model calibration methods at Hailun station"

Fig. 4

Correlation between simulated values and measured values of different model calibration methods at Hailun station"

Table 4

Evaluation index of model performance of RothC model with different model calibration methods at Hailun station"

处理Treatment 模型Model 校准方法Calibration MD nRMSE (%) d
NPK RothC M1 0.22 3.51 0.69
M2 -0.43 3.46 0.67
M3 -0.99 3.89 0.60
NPKS RothC M1 0.56 3.27 0.70
M2 -0.12 3.09 0.74
M3 -0.70 3.32 0.72

Fig. 5

Comparison of simulated values and measured values with different model calibration methods in Farm 850"

Fig. 6

Correlation of simulated values and measured values with different model calibration methods in Farm 850"

Table 5

Evaluation index of model performance of RothC model with different model calibration methods at Farm 850"

处理Treatment 模型Model 校准方法Calibration MD nRMSE(%) d
NPK RothC M1 -1.47 2.90 0.01
M2 -1.68 3.27 0.01
M3 -1.92 3.72 0.01
RothC_0.6 M1 0.44 0.85 0.21
M2 0.21 0.48 0.37
M3 -0.08 0.24 0.49
RothC_p M1 -3.90 7.81 0.00
M2 -4.07 8.13 0.00
M3 -4.23 8.44 0.00
NPKS RothC_ M1 -8.48 16.67 0.09
M2 -8.69 17.04 0.09
M3 -8.93 17.48 0.09
RothC_0.6 M1 -5.71 11.21 0.13
M2 -5.94 11.60 0.12
M3 -6.22 12.12 0.12
RothC_p M1 -13.08 25.86 0.06
M2 -13.25 26.17 0.06
M3 -13.41 26.48 0.06

Table 6

Evaluation index of model performance of RothC_0.6 model for different model calibration methods of crop straw halving in Farm 850"

处理Treatment 模型Model 校准方法Calibration MD nRMSE(%) d
NPKS/2 RothC_0.6 M1 -0.73 1.42 0.62
M2 -0.96 1.81 0.54
M3 -1.24 2.34 0.45

Fig. 7

Comparison (a) and correlation (b) of simulated values and measured values with different calibration methods for crop straw halving in Farm 850"

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